Presentation on theme: "1 Temporary Blemishes or Lifelong Scars? Cohort fluctuations in Education and Stratification in France and United-States (1980-2005) Louis Chauvel Pr at."— Presentation transcript:
1 Temporary Blemishes or Lifelong Scars? Cohort fluctuations in Education and Stratification in France and United-States (1980-2005) Louis Chauvel Pr at Sciences Po Paris email@example.com http://www.louischauvel.org
2 My aims 1.Theory: Cohorts, Hysteresis & Resilience 2.Methodology: from the standard Age-Period-Cohort models to the assessment of resilience 3.Substance: diffusion of diploma and occupational prestige/class in France and the US 4.Results: intensity of cohort fluctuations and intensity of resilience 5.Discussion: US and France : two different regimes of diffusion of education and of status attainment
3 Theory of social generations (Karl Mannheim) Cohort and social change (Norman Ryder) The methodology of APC analysis (Yang Yang) Examples: * suicide in France * consumption in China * political participation * etc., etc., etc. Karl Mannheim 1893-1947 Yang 1970?- Norman Ryder 1923-2010 1. Th: The importance of cohort analysis
4 Socialization versus individual and collective history Life course and socialization Primary and secondary socialization The « transitionnal socialization » Long term impact of the « transitionnal socialization » : « scar effect » History and the constitution of a Generationengeist (spirit of generations) and of a Generationenlage (situation of generation) Primary socialization Until the end of mandatory secondary education (?) Transitionnal socialization Secondary socialization « adulthood » 25-30 y.o.16-18 y.o.
5 Methodology : the base A = P – C BUT ! How to distinguish durable scarring effects and fads ??? Hysteresis = stability versus Resilience = resorption of scars
6 Methodo : Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Yang Yang, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Wenjiang J. Fu, and Kenneth C. Land. 2008. The Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis: What It Is and How To Use It. American Journal of Sociology,113(May). 2. Methodology: APC and resilience The standard APC : identification problem solved (Wilmoth 2002) The intrinsic estimator APC
7 Example : US and diplomas (bachelor and master degrees) Age BCohort % of bachelor (and+) degree owners
8 Example : US and diplomas (bachelor and master degrees) BCohort Cohort coefficents of the APC model of bachelor (and+) degree owners
9 The test of hysteresis http://www.louischauvel.org/apchexem.htm Examples there : h resilience: decreasing cohort fluctuations over life course. h=0 => hysteresis: stability of cohort effect over life course h>0 => cohort Matthew effect: increasing cohort fluctuations
10 3. Substance: diffusion of diploma and occupational prestige/class in France and the US lDiploma diffusion / overeducation (Freeman 1975) / inflation of diploma (Marie Duru Bellat, 2005) lMismatches between number of young graduates and social positions as professionals lMyth or reality? lThe United States file The file is a 1975-2008 United States Current population survey. There is no intersection with the previous file. The size of the extract containing population between age 20 and 64 is n= 1.285.367. It is an extract from IPUMS-CPS Minnesota site. lThe French file The French file is similar: a « Enquête Emploi » (1975-2008) cumulative file (size of the extract containing people between age 20 and 64 is n=942 550).
11 Educational inflation % of Baccalaureat holders accessing EGP service class (h+l) 1970-2005 Period Age Source : Enquêtes emploi 1970-2005 N= 774.424 France
12 4. Results: strong effects in France with no resilience weak effect in the US and resilience US H = -.1986096 CI=[-.2959371; -.1012821] H<0
13 4. Results: strong effects in France with some resilience weak effect in the US and hysteresis France H = -.1053799 CI = [-.2738079 ;.063048] H not sign diff to 0
14 5. Discussion: France (Mediterranean europe) and the problem of youth lDifferences in Welfare and educational regimes In France http://www.louischauvel.org/frenchpolcultsoc.pdf lLack of integration of educated young workers in France lRisk of déclassement social lProblem of matching between education and real positions In the U.S. lthats OK lFuture concerns
15 Duru-Bellat M. (2006) L'inflation scolaire : les désillusions de la méritocratie. Paris : Le Seuil. Ellwood D. (1982) Teenage Unemployment: Permanent Scars or Temporary Blemishes?, in Richard B. Freeman and David A. Wise, The Youth Labor Market Problem, Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report, Chicago : University of Chicago Press. Mason W.M. and S.E. Fienberg (1985), Cohort Analysis in Social Research : Beyond the Identification Problem, Berlin, Springer Verlag. Freeman, R.B. (1976) The overeducated American. New York: Academic Press. Gangl, M. (2004) Welfare states and the scar effects of unemployment: a comparative analysis of the United States and West Germany. American Journal of Sociology 109 (6), 1319-1364 Hastings, D.W. and L.G. Berry (1979) Cohort Analysis: a Collection of Iterdisciplinary Readings. Oxford, OH: Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems. Mannheim, K. (1928) Das Problem der Generationen, Kölner Vierteljahres Hefte für Soziologie 7: 157-85, 309-30. Ryder, N.B. (1965) The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change. American Sociological Review, 30: 843-861. Yang Y., Fu W.J. and Land K.C. (2004) A Methodological Comparison of Age-Period-Cohort Models: The Intrinsic Estimator and Conventional Generalized Linear Models, Sociological Methodology, Vol. 34, (2004), pp. 75-110 Yang Y. and Land K.C. (2006) A Mixed Models Approach to Age-Period Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Trends in Verbal Test Scores, Sociological Methodology, 36:75-97. Yang Y. and K. Land (2008) Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Fixed or Random Effects?, Sociological Methods and Research 36: 297-326. Yang Y. (2008) Social Inequalities in Happiness in the U.S. 1972-2004: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis, American Sociological Review 73:204-226. Basic references