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1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United states Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United states Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United states Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po Paris Site :

2 2 Intentions lDeveloping aspects of my book in cohort dynamics of inequality Destiny of Generations lAnswering to this paradox : economic growth, but no sign of it in my generational neighbourhood lAnalyzing a non-acknowledged source of inequality : a mix between inter- and intra- generational inequalities lInsisting on scarring effects (French : effet de scarification) linked to transitional socialization on birth cohorts objective life chances lInterrogating future of inequalities and welfare regimes: we are socializing the pensioners of 2050…

3 3 Plan lDefinitions of generations lThe Long term generational progress hypothesis lCollective socialization and social history lLexis diagram and cohort lines lSeven generational fractures in France lInternational hypothesis on generational brakes

4 4 Definitions of « generation » lAnglo-Saxon tradition: generation = kinship lEuropean tradition : three degrees of generations : Historical generation Collective identity and consciousness, conflictuality, generation "by itself and for itself" Social generation Demographic generation ( = birth cohorts) Neutral grouping of individuals « raw material »

5 5 Cultural or objective generations?... lKarl Mannheim and a symbolic-culturalist theory of generations « The contains are important (sociologically speaking), not only because of their signification, but also because they melt separate individuals into one group, they have an effect of socialization». (…dass sie die Einzelnen zur Gruppe verbinden, sozialisierend wirken ) (K. Mannheim, Das Problem der Generationen, 1929) lMannheim acknowledges also the existence of a Generationenlage = objective generational situations lQUESTION: do the conditions of entry of a cohort in adulthood have an effect on future life chances? Do they have effects of socialization?

6 6 QUESTION : are there long term consequences of collective difficulties when entering labor market ? Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school (%) Source : Enquêtes emploi INSEE , archives Lasmas 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Male Female Cohorte 1953 Cohorte 1959

7 7 The long term generational progress hypothesis lKant and the intergenerational progress : The previous generations seem to have worked because of the following ones, to prepare the level from which the followers will be about to build the edifice of which Nature has the project, and of which the former generations will be the only ones to benefit from. Their ancestors (may be with no intention), have worked with no possibility to enjoy the felicity they prepared Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Intent (1784) lMedical progress = longer life expectancy in better conditions lProgress in education = better integration of newer generations lEconomic growth = increased consumption lPacification of intergenerational relations = intergenerational solidarity (and economic transmission/reproduction of wealthy social classes) QUESTION : Is that Kantian hypothesis really true?

8 8 Socialization versus individual and collective history lLife cycle and socialization lPrimary and secondary socialization (Berger et Luckmann) lThe « transitionnal socialization » lLong term impact of the « transitionnal socialization » : « scar effect » lHistory and the constitution of a Generationengeist and of a Generationenlage Primary socialization Untill mandatory school (?) Transitionnal socialization Secondary socialization « adulthood » y.o y.o.

9 9 The Lexis Diagram (1872)

10 10 Seven generational fractures in France 1. Income distribution by cohort 2. Progress of the occupational structure 3. Effect of « rémanence » = Scar effect 4. Downward mobility 5. Risks of dyssocialisation 6. Disequilibrium in the political representation 7. Problems of transmission of our social model to the next generations

11 11 1. Distribution of income

12 12 Level of wage (100= french average) DECLINE OF EARNING LEVEL : Relative wages of 4 age groups Sources : Déclarations annuelles de données sociales–INSEE

13 13 2. Progress of the occupational structure Proportion of higher white collars for two age groups and French average Source : Enquêtes Emploi et Formation-qualification-professionnelle 1964 et 1977, INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet Note : Les jeunes salariés ont connu un quasi doublement des emplois qualifiés entre 1964 et 1980, puis un arrêt de la croissance. Le pourcentage est calculé par rapport à la classe d'âge. Sont considérés comme cadres et professions intermédiaires ceux qui exercent effectivement un emploi correspondant à cette catégorie. Jr : classe d'âge 30 à 34 ans ; Sr : classe d'âge 50 à 54 ans. Les enquêtes FQP surestiment la part des cadres chez les ans en excluant de l'enquête les femmes définitivement en retrait de la population active.

14 14 3. Scar effect Proportion of higher white collars

15 15 4. The newer generations know no more improvement, when compared to their own parents Intergenerational upward and downward mobility rate (male age y.o.) Source : Enquêtes Emploi , INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet Sources : Enquêtes Emploi – INSEE (origine : LASMAS IDL – CNRS) down up immobile

16 16 5. A major risk of dyssocialization Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age groups (1965 and 1995) (per ) Source : Chauvel, 1997a²

17 17 5. A major risk of dyssocialization Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age groups (1950 to 2000) (100= average national rate for 15 to 84 yo) Source : Chauvel, 1997a pour et Service d'Information sur les Causes Médicales de Décès (SC8 de l'INSERM) pour Note : Depuis 1985, le taux de suicide des ans a fortement progressé, à l'inverse de celui des ans. Population masculine.

18 18 6. Desequilibrium in political representation Age distribution of French Députés (National Parliament) Source : Trombinoscopes de lAssemblée Nationale.

19 19 Daily newspaper reading ( %) (diagramme cohortal) Note : answer « everyday » to the question : « abour how often do you read the news in daily newspapers » Participation to political discussions in two age groups Note : answer : frequently to the question : « when you get together wth friends, would you say you discuss political matters frequently, occasionally or never » Source : Mannheim Eurobarometer Trend File , MZES-ZUMA-ZEUS ; données fournies par la BDSP-Grenoble..

20 20 7. Transmission of our social model to the next generation Lexis diagram and the illusion of age Period Age Old good times… End of school Access to stable employment End of stable employment Death Retirement

21 21 What about comparisons? 1.French specificity? Homogeneity Centralization Excesses (and backlashes…) 2.A universal evolution in « post industrialized countries » facing slow growth? 3.Role of history / role of welfare models (Esping-Andersen)

22 22 Poverty rates by adult age groups (Census years ) in the US Source: US Censuses accessed at Note: the definition of poverty threshold is based on the European relative definition: people with standardized equivalent income adjusted for family size below 50% of the national median are poor. Since 1980, each new generation enters with a stronger poverty rate, which increases progressively at any later age. Clue 1

23 23 Consumption relative poverty rates by adult age groups (family budget ) in France Source: INSEE family budgets Note: the definition of consumption poverty threshold is based on the European relative definition: people with standardized equivalent consumption adjusted for family size below 50% of the national median are poor. Each new generation enters with a stronger poverty rate, which increases progressively at any later age. Clue 2 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

24 24 Interpreting the French case: lEsping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states: France = corporatist-conservative « welfare mix », stabilization of social relations Protection of insiders (protected male workers) against outsiders lIn case of economic brake : « Insiderisation » of insiders, already in the stable labor force and « outsiderisation » of new entrants lIn France, young people can wait … decades Increasing poverty rates for young people, stable intracohort inequalities (after taxes and welfare reallocations) lAre other intergenerational compromise possible ?

25 25 Three modalities Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states : lConservative model» (Continental Europe) : Preservation of (old) social equilibria, with social insurance excluding unemployed lLiberal model : (Anglo-saxon world) : Market as a central institution, residual welfare state against market failures HL0 : more intracohort inequalities HL1 : less intercohort inequality (competition between generations) l« Social-democrat » Model (Nordic Europe) : Citizenship and broad participation to discussions and bargaining around social reforms between social groups (gender, generations, etc.) for a long-term development HD0 : less intracohort inequalities HD1 : residual intercohort inequalities (compromise between generations)

26 26 International variations : lThree great models of evolution : Continental and Mediterranean Europe (+ Japon) : protection of insiders against outsiders (new generations are facing major difficulties) United States and anglo-saxon countries : the new generations, in the average, face difficulties, but higher inequalities imply a divergence between lowest and highest income groups and social classes Northern Europe : Closer to a universalistic egalitarian equilibrium between age groups, genders and social classes (lower intra- and inter- cohort inequalities) lEmerging countries : in fast growth countries (China, Taiwan ?, India, Central-Easter Europe) : new opportunities for newer cohorts, and higher inter- and intra-cohort inequalities to the benefit to young university graduates in stagnation countries (Argentina, Northern Africa) : intergenerational inequalities and generational destabilization (inflation of diplomas and declining return to education)

27 27 Conclusions lKant law of long term generational progress is false for short-middle term lThe future of Welfare state in France is highly uncertain lIn many countries, a better equilibrium between generations is ned lProblem : the social inertia (« scaring effect ») imply a long term impact if nowadays difficulties; sacrificed generations do not easily catch up lThis catch up dynamics of sacrificed generations is not spontaneously effective : it can become an object of negotiation for a new Welfare state in Europe

28 28 Attias-Donfut C. (dir.), 1995, Les solidatités entre les générations, Paris, Nathan. Attias-Donfut C., 2000, Rapports de générations : transferts intrafamiliaux et dynamique macrosociale, Revue française de sociologie, vol.41, n°4, pp Becker H.A., 2000; Discontinuous Change and Generational Contracts. Pp in: S. Arber, C. Attias-Donfut (Eds), The Myth of Generational Conflict. The Family and State in Ageing Societies, Routledge, London and New York. Berger P. and T. Luckmann, 1966, The social construction of reality : a treatise in the sociology of knowledge, Doubleway, Garden City N.Y. Birnbacher D., 1994 [1988], La responsabilité envers les générations futures, Paris, PUF. Chauvel L., 1997d, Luniformisation du taux de suicide masculin selon lâge : effet de génération ou recomposition du cycle de vie ?, Revue française de sociologie. Chauvel L., 2002 [1998], Le destin des générations: structure sociale et cohortes en France au xx e siècle, Paris, Presses Universitaires de France. Evan W.M., 1959, Cohort Analysis of Survey Data: A Procedure for Studying Long-Term Opinion Change, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1., pp Girod R., 1986, Evolution des revenus et mobilité sociale (à Genève ), Genève-Paris, Droz. Mannheim K., 1990 [1928], Le problème des générations, Nathan, Paris. Mason K.O., W.M. Mason, H.H. Winsborough et W.H. Poole, 1973, Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data, American Sociological Review, 38, pp Mentré F., 1920, Les générations sociales, Paris, Éd. Bossard. Merton R.K., 1938, Social Structure and Anomie, American Sociological Review, Vol. 3, No. 5. (Oct., 1938), pp Ryder N.B., 1965, The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change, American Sociological Review, 30, pp


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