Presentation on theme: "Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap"— Presentation transcript:
1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United statesLouis Chauvel Sciences-Po ParisSite :
2 IntentionsDeveloping aspects of my book in cohort dynamics of inequality “Destiny of Generations”Answering to this paradox : economic growth, but no sign of it in my “generational neighbourhood”Analyzing a non-acknowledged source of inequality : a mix between inter- and intra- generational inequalitiesInsisting on “scarring effects” (French : effet de scarification) linked to “transitional socialization” on birth cohorts’ objective life chancesInterrogating future of inequalities and welfare regimes: we are socializing the pensioners of 2050…
3 Plan Definitions of generations The Long term generational progress hypothesisCollective socialization and social historyLexis diagram and cohort linesSeven generational fractures in FranceInternational hypothesis on generational brakes
4 Historical generation Demographic generation ( = birth cohorts) Definitions of « generation »Anglo-Saxon tradition: generation = kinshipEuropean tradition : three degrees of generations :Historical generationCollective identity and consciousness, conflictuality, generation "by itself and for itself"Social generationDemographic generation ( = birth cohorts)Neutral grouping of individuals « raw material »
5 Cultural or objective generations?... Karl Mannheim and a symbolic-culturalist theory of generations« The contains <of consciousness> are important (sociologically speaking), not only because of their signification, but also because they melt separate individuals into one group, they have an effect of socialization». (…dass sie die Einzelnen zur Gruppe verbinden, „sozialisierend“ wirken ) (K. Mannheim, Das Problem der Generationen, 1929)Mannheim acknowledges also the existence of a Generationenlage = objective generational situationsQUESTION: do the conditions of entry of a cohort in adulthood have an effect on future life chances? Do they have effects of socialization?
6 Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school (%) QUESTION : are there long term consequences of collective difficulties when entering labor market ?Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school (%)45%40%35%30%25%Male20%Female15%Cohorte 195910%5%Cohorte 19530%1970198019902000Source : Enquêtes emploi INSEE , archives Lasmas
7 The long term generational progress hypothesis Kant and the intergenerational progress : “The previous generations seem to have worked because of the following ones, to prepare the level from which the followers will be about to build the edifice of which Nature has the project, and of which the former generations will be the only ones to benefit from. Their ancestors (may be with no intention), have worked with no possibility to enjoy the felicity they prepared” Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Intent (1784)Medical progress = longer life expectancy in better conditionsProgress in education = better integration of newer generationsEconomic growth = increased consumptionPacification of intergenerational relations = intergenerational solidarity (and economic transmission/reproduction of wealthy social classes)QUESTION : Is that Kantian hypothesis really true?
8 Primary socialization Secondary socialization Socialization versus individual and collective historyLife cycle and socializationPrimary and secondary socialization (Berger et Luckmann)The « transitionnal socialization »Long term impact of the « transitionnal socialization » : « scar effect »History and the constitution of a Generationengeist and of a GenerationenlagePrimary socializationUntill mandatory school (?)Transitionnal socializationSecondary socialization« adulthood »16-18 y.o.25-30 y.o.
10 Seven generational fractures in France 1. Income distribution by cohort2. Progress of the occupational structure3. Effect of « rémanence » = Scar effect4. Downward mobility5. Risks of dyssocialisation6. Disequilibrium in the political representation7. Problems of transmission of our social model to the next generations
12 DECLINE OF EARNING LEVEL : Relative wages of 4 age groups 80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%120%125%130%19601970198019902000201025-29 y30-39 y40-49 y50-59 yLevel of wage (100= french average)Sources : Déclarations annuelles de données sociales–INSEE
13 2. Progress of the occupational structure Proportion of higher white collars for two age groups and French averageSource : Enquêtes Emploi et Formation-qualification-professionnelle 1964 et 1977, INSEE ; archives LASMAS-QuételetNote : Les jeunes salariés ont connu un quasi doublement des emplois qualifiés entre 1964 et 1980, puis un arrêt de la croissance. Le pourcentage est calculé par rapport à la classe d'âge. Sont considérés comme cadres et professions intermédiaires ceux qui exercent effectivement un emploi correspondant à cette catégorie. Jr : classe d'âge 30 à 34 ans ; Sr : classe d'âge 50 à 54 ans. Les enquêtes FQP surestiment la part des cadres chez les ans en excluant de l'enquête les femmes définitivement en retrait de la population active.
14 Proportion of higher white collars 1971-2000 3. Scar effectProportion of higher white collars
15 Source : Enquêtes Emploi 1982-2000, INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet 4. The newer generations know no more improvement, when compared to their own parentsIntergenerational upward and downward mobility rate (male age y.o.)Source : Enquêtes Emploi , INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet6050down40immobile30up2010Sources : Enquêtes Emploi – INSEE (origine : LASMAS IDL – CNRS)198019851990199520002005
16 5. A major risk of dyssocialization Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age groups (1965 and 1995) (per )Source : Chauvel, 1997a²
17 5. A major risk of dyssocialization Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age groups (1950 to 2000) (100= average national rate for 15 to 84 yo)Source : Chauvel, 1997a pour et Service d'Information sur les Causes Médicales de Décès (SC8 de l'INSERM) pourNote : Depuis 1985, le taux de suicide des ans a fortement progressé, à l'inverse de celui des ans. Population masculine.
18 Source : Trombinoscopes de l’Assemblée Nationale. 6. Desequilibrium in political representationAge distribution of French Députés (National Parliament)Source : Trombinoscopes de l’Assemblée Nationale.
19 Daily newspaper reading ( %) (diagramme cohortal) Note : answer « everyday » to the question : « abour how often do you read the news in daily newspapers »Participation to political discussions in two age groupsNote : answer : “ frequently ” to the question : « when you get together wth friends, would you say you discuss political matters frequently, occasionally or never »Source : Mannheim Eurobarometer Trend File , MZES-ZUMA-ZEUS ; données fournies par la BDSP-Grenoble..
20 Lexis diagram and the illusion of age 7. Transmission of our social model to the next generationLexis diagram and the illusion of ageAgeDeath19101930Retirement8019501970End of stable employment60“Old good times”…Access to stable employment40End of school20Period1890191019301950197019902010
21 What about comparisons? French specificity? Homogeneity Centralization Excesses (and backlashes…)A universal evolution in « post industrialized countries » facing slow growth?Role of history / role of welfare models (Esping-Andersen)
22 Poverty rates by adult age groups (Census years 1960-2000) in the US Clue 1Poverty rates by adult age groups (Census years ) in the USSource: US Censuses accessed atNote: the definition of poverty threshold is based on the European relative definition: people with standardized equivalent income adjusted for family size below 50% of the national median are poor. Since 1980, each new generation enters with a stronger poverty rate, which increases progressively at any later age.
23 Source: INSEE family budgets Clue 2“Consumption” relative poverty rates by adult age groups (family budget ) in FranceSource: INSEE family budgetsNote: the definition of “consumption” poverty threshold is based on the European relative definition: people with standardized equivalent consumption adjusted for family size below 50% of the national median are poor. Each new generation enters with a stronger poverty rate, which increases progressively at any later age.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2030405060708019852000
24 Interpreting the French case: Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states: France = “corporatist-conservative” « welfare mix », stabilization of social relations Protection of insiders (protected male workers) against outsidersIn case of economic brake : « Insiderisation » of insiders, already in the stable labor force and « outsiderisation » of new entrantsIn France, young people can wait … decades Increasing poverty rates for young people, stable intracohort inequalities (after taxes and welfare reallocations)Are other intergenerational compromise possible ?
25 Three modalities Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states : Conservative model» (Continental Europe) : Preservation of (old) social equilibria, with social insurance excluding unemployedLiberal model : (Anglo-saxon world) : Market as a central institution, residual welfare state against market failures HL0 : more intracohort inequalities HL1 : less intercohort inequality (competition between generations)« Social-democrat » Model (Nordic Europe) : Citizenship and broad participation to discussions and bargaining around social reforms between social groups (gender, generations, etc.) for a long-term development HD0 : less intracohort inequalities HD1 : residual intercohort inequalities (compromise between generations)
26 International variations : Three great models of evolution :Continental and Mediterranean Europe (+ Japon) : protection of insiders against outsiders (new generations are facing major difficulties)United States and anglo-saxon countries : the new generations, in the average, face difficulties, but higher inequalities imply a divergence between lowest and highest income groups and social classesNorthern Europe : Closer to a universalistic egalitarian equilibrium between age groups, genders and social classes (lower intra- and inter- cohort inequalities)Emerging countries :in fast growth countries (China, Taiwan ?, India, Central-Easter Europe) : new opportunities for newer cohorts, and higher inter- and intra-cohort inequalities to the benefit to young university graduatesin stagnation countries (Argentina, Northern Africa) : intergenerational inequalities and generational destabilization (inflation of diplomas and declining return to education)
27 ConclusionsKant law of long term generational progress is false for short-middle termThe future of Welfare state in France is highly uncertainIn many countries, a better equilibrium between generations is nedProblem : the social inertia (« scaring effect ») imply a long term impact if nowadays difficulties; sacrificed generations do not easily catch upThis catch up dynamics of sacrificed generations is not spontaneously effective : it can become an object of negotiation for a new Welfare state in Europe
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