1. Reshaping Cities: What can be done? Professor Ivan Turok Human Sciences Research Council

2. Outline  The national context  Diverse local contexts  Patterns and trends  Explanations  Policies

3. Renewed interest in spatial matters Our people still have to daily confront the impact of urban segregation. Many still live in areas once designated for black people away from economic opportunities and civic services (President Zuma, 2010) Spatial challenges continue to marginalize the poor … the situation has probably been aggravated since 1994, with many more people now living in poorly located settlements … The capacity of municipalities to plan effectively is a significant challenge that needs to be addressed, supported by the efforts of national and provincial government” (NPC, 2011) The cost of living is an important contributor to wage levels. Diffuse settlement patterns and weak public transport systems undermine job search and the ‘cost of working’ (NPC, 2011)

4. Spatial dislocation between jobs and population is the key issue

5. The ‘spiky’ spatial economy - normal

6. Big cities have seen the biggest increase in the employment rate, despite in-migration

7. Household income: major transfers to ex-Bantustans

8. Population change – pressure on cities

9. Regional inequalities translate into urban inequalities 1. ‘Regional’ = former Bantustans versus metropolitan areas 2. ‘Urban’ = townships versus suburbs ‘Adjustment’ via migration and commuting is very normal but complicated in SA

10. As a result, spatial frictions compound poverty and inequality 1. Distance from jobs – ‘spatial mismatch’  Exclusion from well-located land  RDP housing policy  Transport subsidies to workers

11. 2. ‘Area effects’ of concentrated poverty  Inferior basic services  Other facilities under extreme pressure  Vulnerability to fire, crime, disease  Social networks & access to information  Peer effects & socialisation Impedes upward mobility – inter-generational

17. Size of economic node (Source: Sinclair-Smith & Turok)

18. Location of growth (2001-05) (Source: Sinclair-Smith & Turok)

19. Where workers live

21. Location is highly contested – Mitchells Plain

23. Location of population

24. Location of jobs Source: Gerbrand Mans, CSIR

25. Transport, storage and communication

26. Manufacturing

27. Finance, insurance, real estate

28. Wholesale, retail, motor repair, hotels, restaurants

29. Community, social, government personal services

30. Spatial dislocation matters for the economy and environment too Imbalance creates excess travel & congestion Cost of transport subsidies Dispersed bulk infrastructure Overheated property markets Adverse environmental impacts Cost of regular township disasters Weaker place attachment, asset investment

31. Explanations Housing Employment Transport subsidies

32. Reasons for poorly located housing Low household incomes relative to cost of land Existing property owners fear of shacks Constitutional property rights Passive public sector land owners Better availability of greenfield sites Lower cost of developing greenfield sites Lack of creativity in house-building industry & among planners & regulators(?)

33. Reasons for remote employment locations Inertia in established employment centres Central locations to maximise labour pool via public transport Shared services and infrastructure Maintaining property values Concerns about safety and security Proximity to home of business owners Sheer prejudice and herd instinct!

34. Policy responses 1. People closer to the jobs  Subsidised well-located land & housing  Acceptance, gradual upgrading & expansion of well-located informal settlements  Support services to enable labour market and progression – info, advice, skills, childcare  Mixed-use development & cross-subsidies  Wider spectrum - housing ladder

35. Policy responses 2. Jobs closer to the people  Township economic development with priority area status in and around  Land, infrastructure, premises  Small business advice & financial support  Public procurement & supply chain devt.  Public Works & Community Works Prog.  Need + potential

36. Policy responses 3. Improved public transport systems  Efficient, low cost commuting  Densification of transport corridors to knit together the built environment  Active zoning, incentives, guidance

37. Big opportunity with devolution of housing and transport powers to the metros (& SPLUMB?) Can you rise to the challenge?

38. 3 forms of spatial planning  ‘Spatially-blind’ - neutral  Not explicit, reactive to market & events  Reproduces dislocations and inequalities  ‘Spatial targeting’ – concerted government action  Coordinated infrastructure, regulation, incentives …  Parachuting in, big projects, not embedded/sustainable  ‘Integrated place-based’ - horizontal & vertical alignment  Driven by local needs and potential, local energy and initiative  Building indigenous capabilities, developing linkages, partnership, negotiating transitions to green and inclusive economy

39. More research  Changing employment locations (by sector etc)  Shifting population (by skill, age, gender etc)  Changing land-use patterns  Underlying drivers  Creative use of planning & infrastructure policies