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Urbanization Review Mexico - Urban Spatial Form and Towards Productive and Inclusive Cities February 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Urbanization Review Mexico - Urban Spatial Form and Towards Productive and Inclusive Cities February 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Urbanization Review Mexico - Urban Spatial Form and Towards Productive and Inclusive Cities February 2015

2 Rapid urbanization started in the 1950s, today over 70 percent of the population live in cities 2 Population growth and urbanization since 1900 Source: Census data from INEGI. Note: Urban population refers to settlements with more than 2,500 inhabitants. Urbanization rates in Latin America in 2010 Source: UN Habitat 2010.

3 Mexico has a consolidated system of cities In 2010, 72% of Mexicans lived in the country’s 384 cities (>15k). Systems of Cities by City Size and Regions in Mexico 2.6% >500k-1m Large cities continue to grow. 0.7% >100k-500k 1.3% >10m 4.9% >1m-10m Average annual population growth by city size group. 3 Source: SEDESOL.

4 Rapid Urban Sprawl of Cities Zumpango, Metropolitan Area of Mexico City Spatial 4

5 Getting the density story right Spatial 5

6 Mexican cities are actually turning into expanding doughnuts Between 2000 and 2010, 67 of Mexico’s 91 largest cities lost population in its central 2km. In 18 of them over 20% of central city population moved out of city centers. The implication of current spatial development trends? How does current spatial form intersect with city’s productivity and inclusiveness? Queretaro Chihuahua Spatial 6

7 Livable/ Inclusive Cities Uncoordinated peri-urban expansion can harm productivity and inclusiveness Case study in Guadalajara under way. Access to Jobs / Commuting Time Productive Cities Urban Spatial Dev. Cost of Infrastructure and Maintenance Employment Opportunities Environmental Implications Crime & Violence Spatial Access to Infra/Social Service 7 Economic Density

8 Uncoordinated Urban Expansion and Income Characteristics of Expansion Areas Spatial 8

9 Growing Distance between Jobs and Housing in Guadalajara 9 Population and job density by distance to city center, Guadalajara

10 This spatial mismatch often results in wasteful commuting and also higher reliance on private cars. Spatial 10 Source: ENUT, INEGI. Source: SIMBAD (State and municipal datasets system), INEGI.

11 In the case of Guadalajara Commuting time and household expenditure on commuting: origin- destination survey and its analysis is on the way. Limitation for statistically representative data 11

12 Uncoordinated housing development in urban periphery has led to high level vacant houses In 2010, more than 22.7m housing units in cities (over 73% of all housing units) 14.4% of these units are vacant avg.: 4,640 Spatial 12 Vacant housing per 100,000 inhabitants by city type, 2010 Vacant housing per 100,000 inhabitants by region, 2010 Source: Population Census, INEGI.

13 Cost of infrastructure provision and maintenance is much higher with current urban footprint ROADS EWATERDRAINAGE MX$ 219,433m 33,740 units EWATERDRAINAGE ROADS MX$ 72,245m 11,844 units WATER DRAINAGE MX$ 6,134mMX$ 1,986m Business as Usual Scenario Vision Scenario CONSTRUCTION COSTS Business as Usual Scenario Vision Scenario MAINTENANCE COSTS -67% -67.6% Assuming that Los Cabos will have 600k inhabitants in 2040 Vision scenario uses higher densities  45% area less than BAU scenario Case Study for Los Cabos Spatial 13 Source: SEDESOL.

14 Urban sprawl also has important implications on transport costs and CO 2 emissions Source: Centro Mario Molina, Ciudades: Merida. Escenarios de Crecimiento, Vision Scenario CONSTRUCTION - 19,446t CO 2 LIGHTNING-15t TRANSPORT – 789t CO 2 20,249 tons CO 2 CONSTRUCTION - 11,297t CO 2 LIGHTNING-8t TRANSPORT – 576t CO 2 11,881 tons CO 2 PUBLIC – MX$ 885m PRIVATE – MX$ 528m MX$ 1,413m PUBLIC – MX$ 536m PRIVATE – MX$ 203m MX$ 739m -41.3% -47.7% COSTS FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE TRANSPORT CO 2 EMISSIONS Business as Usual Scenario Vision Scenario BAU Scenario Spatial 14

15 Economic density matters for service industry, giving a reason for more compact development. Correlation between density, manufacturing and service shows opposite trends Economic density matters for service sector for economic spill-over effects, flow of knowledge and R&D, while manufacturing sector is driven by cheaper labor and land. Promoting high-density and compact development is relevant to cities with emerging service sector. Productivity Density and Manufacturing Productivity Density and Service Productivity 15

16 Infrastructure access and quality is worse in urban peripheries. Infrastructure Access and Quality in Guadalajara Spatial 16

17 Social Aspects of Spatial Segregation Crime and violence: urban poverty, incidence of crime and violence and its linkage with spatial segregation – Data on incidence and perception survey at municipality level Disaster risk and vulnerability: urban poverty and disaster risk. – How to measure at spatially disaggregated level? – Availability of drainage and shelter as a proxy? 17

18 Key Recommendations Spatial structure is multi-dimensional and complex, current policy focus on ‘controlling’ urban expansion should be shifted towards more a nuanced spatial development strategy. Key priority should be investing in improving institutional capacity for urban planning at local level. The current housing subsidy program may not be the most effective policy tool to change urban spatial development. Instead, well articulated urban policy and instruments, coordinated with housing, should play a more prominent role in promoting productive and inclusive spatial development. Linking with Policy Dialogue: Spatial 18

19 Instead of focusing on limiting urban expansion, focus on re-densification and regeneration of urban centers to make inner cities more livable. Take a lead in experimenting with innovative financing instruments for urban regeneration. Fiscal incentives are important for urban re-densification, especially addressing housing affordability, but do not neglect regulatory and legal framework at local level necessary to make urban redevelopment happen. Invest in modernizing the cadastral system. Fluid land markets and the information system are pre-condition for urban instruments to work. Urban Spatial Development towards Productive and Inclusive Cities Key Recommendations Spatial 19

20 Thank you!

21 Population Density Persons per Hectare Tlaxcala-ApizacoOrizaba 21

22 Density Gradient Measures the change in population density of urban area from center to periphery CuernavacaZitácuaro 22

23 Centrality Index Measures the average distance of the population from city center relative to the size of the city Uruapan Minatitlán 23

24 Circularity Index Measures urban fragmentation or compactness AcapulcoNavojoa 24

25 Clustering Index Measures the concentration of people in certain areas Queretaro Zacatecas-Guadalupe 25

26 Cross-Cutting Policy Area: Coordination Vertical alignment and coordination between federal and local governments towards common objectives and incentives for sustainable spatial development Horizontal integration of institutions within and beyond municipal boundaries for urban and housing development Develop appropriate institutional mechanisms for metropolitan governance and build institutional capacity to ensure integrated economic and physical planning Improved coordination between urban and transport planning and investment, improved transit-oriented development Key Recommendations: Coordination 26

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