2The Global Automotive Industry Climate Change and CO2 Fuel Quality and Emissions Good morning, Ladies and Gentlemen and thank you for coming.Due to time constraints I will keep this very short, but I wanted to say a few words on the issues of climate change and of fuel quality
3Transport CO2 emissions compared to TOTAL man made emissions 12.2%18.2%Fuel combustionfor otherusesManufacturing& Construction15.9%Electricity Generation& Heating43.9%Road Transport(Cars, Trucks & Buses)Road transport share of global CO2 emissions:LESS THAN 16%COST EFFICIENCY IS CRUCIAL !Globally, road transport is responsible for up to 16% of man made CO2 emissions. Often cars and trucks are portrayed as the main source of CO2, forgetting about other contributors. This can be misleading.This does not mean that the auto industry minimises its role. What it does mean is that, in view of these relatively low figures, we cannot solve the problem alone and that the most cost efficient approach must be used to meet the challenge of Global Warming.When it comes to road transport, everybody has a role to play, from the vehicle manufacturer up to the final consumer.
4CO2 emissions - EU-15 Sales weighted average – new passenger cars -12.4 % since 19958 l/100km1907.2 l/100km1801706.7 l/100kmgrammes/km160Petrol150Diesel5.8 l/100km140All fuels130Ladies and Gentlemen, as an example, the average fuel consumption of cars sold in Europe has decreased by more than 12% in less than 10 years. At the same time, vehicle weight increased by more than 16% due, among other things, to increased safety and other legal requirements.Today's cars are also cleaner than ever and, with the replacement of older vehicles, air quality in many cities is improving. However, reduction of pollution may also lead to an increase in fuel consumption and therefore CO2!This means we face a double challenge - a first engineering challenge to compensate for these contradictions, and a second one to actually reduce fuel consumption.1995199619971998199920002001200220032004Source: EU Commission communication – SEC(2006)1078
5Research and Development 85 billion €/year in R&D> cars/year in EU with <120 g/km CO2Development of sophisticated technologiesNew propulsion technologies / alternative fuelsAffordabilityTime to bring to the marketTime to replace existing fleetsVehicle manufacturers are world leaders in Research and Development and spend about 85 billion € per year on R&D.Today, in the European Union alone, already more than a million vehicles emitting less than 120 g/km CO2 are sold every year, and the trend is accelerating.Billions of Euros are invested every year to improve engine efficiency and to develop new technologies, including Hybrids or alternative fuel vehicles, such as natural gas, biofuels, or hydrogen.But there is almost certainly not one, single technology that is THE global answer.All these technologies of course entail additional costs and are therefore a big challenge to maintain affordability.Whatever the technology, it takes considerable time to develop, refine and bring it to market and then again, a period of several years before all the existing fleet is replaced by new, more efficient vehicles.
6The Integrated Approach to reduce Road Transport CO2 Vehicle technology and its penetrationFuel infrastructureImproved traffic managementFinal consumer – ECO drivingGovernment policies:Clear CoherentPredictable StableManufacturers want to be part of the solution.But manufacturers alone cannot give all the answers.The environment needs an intelligent, coherent and pragmatic integrated approach. In this respect, I would like to cite Japan as an example.To make such an approach happen, Ladies and Gentlemen, governments have a vital steering role to play through their policies, including fiscal instruments. Because of the many challenges involved, we need government policies that are clear, internationally coherent, predictable and stable.
7Fuel Quality Vehicle and fuel: one complete integrated system Clean vehicles need clean fuelsUN ECE activities starting to define link emissions/vehicle/fuelStrong support by auto industryLadies and Gentlemen,Another very important issue is the recognition that vehicles and the fuel they use must be considered together, as a single, integrated system.Even the cleanest engine, running on poor quality fuel, will not reach its potential. It may even be damaged and produce more pollution.In the United Nations, activities have recently started to define, in a first step, the relationship between the allowed level of pollutant emissions and the corresponding fuel properties.This could then provide essential guidance to governments, in developing their environmental policies.The auto industry strongly supports these efforts and hopes that they will very soon lead to an improvement in fuel quality at the pump in many countries.Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention.
8Reducing CO2 emissions The situation in Europe Xavier FelsPresident CCFA (French Automotive Manufacturers Association) Vice-President OICAGeneva Motor Show 5 March 2008
9The “engine” of Europe18.6 million vehicles produced per year, 1/3 of global production2.3 million direct jobs, indirect employment for another 10 million families€ 20 billion in R&D spending, largest private investor€ 41.6 billion of net trade contribution€ 360 billion of tax revenues
10The automotive industry is committed Automotive industry is strongly involved and committed13% reduction CO2 emissions through vehicle performance only ( )Car industry is building on significant technological investments and progress to dateAll manufacturers are making considerable efforts:Need for global, consistent and cost-effective action.Engine and transmission Light weight materialsImproved aerodynamics Alternative fuel technologiesFriction reduction Hybrid, plug-in… and many more
11EU Commission only focus on car technology December 19, : European Commission’s legislative proposal on CO2 reduction from cars :120g/km in 2012:130g/km through technologies (e.g. engine)5g/km through bio fuels5g/km through complementary vehicle technology measures (Gear shift indicator, Energy-efficient air-conditioning, Low rolling resistance tyres, Tyre pressure monitoring systems,…)Narrow focus only on new car technology instead of an integrated approach involving all relevant stakeholdersContrary to holistic approach adopted in Commission’s Energy Efficiency Action PlanContrary to better regulation principles
12Reducing CO2 emissions – An integrated approach Delivering majority of new car CO2 reductionsInfluencing demand in a harmonised waySustainable productionReducing congestion
13Unrealistic lead time (1) 2012 for reaching 130g/km for new car fleet is unrealistic:Typical product cycle for a car is ~6-7 years; development phase is ~5 years from concept definition until start of productionOf new cars sold in 2012…Nearly 2/3 are already in execution or production phaseThe remaining 1/3 are already in concept phase
15The European auto industry needs: Engagement of the consumers through a CO2 oriented labelling and tax policyFair and cost-effective rules it can comply with, in particular:Level of compensation payments that should be no higher than for other sectors (the proposed level of penalty is equivalent to €475 per ton while the current CO2 price on the market is €5 per ton !)Better reward and encouragement for “eco innovations” such as:Energy-saving car lights, tools to personalise engine and transmission management, tailored on-board computers and navigation systems…
16 The European auto industry needs to maintain diversity and affordability of cars to customers. Thankyou
17How the United States Is Meeting the CO2 Challenge March 5, 2008PRESENTATION BY Dave McCurdy President & CEO Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers17
18Higher MPG, Lower CO2The historic 2007 U.S. Energy Bill will produce dramatic results by 2020:Raises mileage standards to 35 MPG, a 40% increase;Reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) from autos by 30%;Avoids 206 million metric tons of greenhouse gases annually;Lowers oil consumption by 1.1 million barrels a day;Saves 18 billion gallons of gasoline per year; andRequires 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels annually.181818
19Automakers Represent the First Industry to Make Dramatic CO2 Reductions America needs a more CO2-efficient society, and a new fleet of CO2-efficient autos will be dominating the marketplace.d produce less CO2.By reducing CO2 by 30%, automakers will lead all industries in setting a clear path to meeting the recent United Nations Bali Climate Change Summit’s goal of a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.191919
20A Multi-Sector Approach to Climate Change EFFECTIVE POLICY NEEDS TO:Foster more alternative fuel choices, especially more low-carbon, renewable fuels;Implement an aggressive program to enhance America’s fuels infrastructure, so our advanced technology autos have the fuels needed to power them;Empower the research and development community to move us closer to technology breakthroughs like batteries for plug-in hybrids and fuel cells;Encourage the U.S. investment community to stimulate economic investments in our future fuels and technologies;Involve all levels of government.ConsumersPolicy should encourage consumers to conserve fuel and to consider purchasing one of the many fuel-efficient autos on sale today.2020
21A Multi-Sector Approach to Climate Change UTILITIES & MANUFACTURINGCONSUMERSAn effective climate change policy must be built upon a multi-sector approach that involves all stakeholders.FUEL PROVIDERSAIRPLANESLOW-CARBON FUELSAUTOSBOATSTRAINS2121
22Japan’s Approach to CO2 Reduction Yoshiyasu NaoPresidentJapan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.5 March 2008
23CO2 emissions in Japan’s transport sector are decreasing. In line with the Kyoto Protocol, the Japanese government formulated a target achievement plan which established CO2 reduction targets for all major sectors including the transport sector.Since peaking in 2001, CO2 emissions in Japan’s transport sector have been on a downward trend, dropping to 254 million tons in Through greater automotive fuel efficiency, improved traffic flow, the wider use of alternative-energy vehicles and other measures including the adoption of eco-driving practices, the transport sector’s target for 2010 is achievable.Greaterfuelefficiency21.0CO2 Emission Volumes in Japan’s Transport Sector5.6Other:An estimated 54.9 million tons of CO2 will not be emitted (through greater fuel efficiency: 21 million tons; through improved traffic flow: 28.3 million tons; through wider use of alternative-energy vehicles and other measures : 5.6 million tons) in order to meet Japan’s Kyoto Protocol-related transport-sector target.Improvedtrafficflow:28.3milliontons2010Source: Ministry of Environment dataSource: JAMA
24Average fuel efficiency performance Achieving Greater Fuel Efficiency★The average fuel efficiency of new cars sold in Japan is increasing every year, making a significant contribution to CO2 reduction.★Japan’s 2010 fuel efficiency standard for passenger cars has already been met (and in fact exceeded), as a result of intensive efforts and considerable financial investment by Japan’s automakers.★Reducing CO2 emissions in the transport sector by 21 million tons through greater fuel efficiency, as per Japan’s Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan, is achievable.★JAMA member companies are now working hard towards compliance with Japan’s very stringent 2015 fuel efficiency standard for passenger cars.Trend in the Average Fuel-Efficiency Performance of Gasoline-Powered Passenger Cars2015 fuel efficiency targetAverage fuel efficiency for new cars sold in Japan reached 16.0 km/l in 2006, exceeding the 2010 target of 15.1 km/l.Average fuel efficiency performance(new vehicles)Despite the achievements in fuel efficiency performance to date, meeting the 2015 target remains a major challenge.
25Improving Traffic Flow Improved traffic flow contributes to CO2 reduction by enabling increased vehicle speed, which in turn contributes to greater automotive fuel efficiency.CO2 emissionsImproved traffic flow is achieved through: ○Improvements to road infrastructure ○Greater efficiency in goods distribution ○Wider application of ITS ○Use of advanced signal-control systems Etc.CO2 emission levelsSource: Japan Automobile Research Institute data
26Supply of Alternative Fuels Adopting an Integrated Sectoral Approachto CO2 ReductionImproving automotive fuel efficiency and traffic flow is not enough to reduce CO2 emissions in the road transport sector. An integrated approach is required, which includes the development and supply of alternative fuels and a more efficient use of vehicles. The adoption of these measures will ultimately make CO2 reduction efforts compatible with economic growth.All stakeholders concerned should identify their individual responsibilities and make their best efforts to carry them out, in a framework of mutual cooperation.Government/Fuel suppliers/ Automakers[biofuels, etc.]Automakers/Government[fuel efficiency standards]Supply of Alternative FuelsGreaterFuel EfficiencyVehicle users(with the cooperation of fleet operators & government promotion)[eco-driving, vehicle sharing, more efficient goods distribution, shift to rail transport, etc.]Government[road infrastructure upgrades, ITS, enforce- ment of parking bans, etc.]More Efficient Use ofMotor VehiclesImprovedTraffic Flow
27Summary★CO2 reductions in the transport sector can be achieved throughcomprehensive measures including greater automotive fuel efficiency (through improved vehicle technologies), improved traffic flow (through road infrastructure improvements including better traffic management), and the more efficient use of vehicles.★Under Japan’s Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan, an integrated, sectoral approach to reducing road transport CO2 emissions is steadily proving successful.★The sectoral approach can be adopted globally on a country-by-country basis. JAMA hopes that many countries will decide to adopt this approach and take action accordingly, so that CO2 reductions can be achieved worldwide.
29Overview of Current Fuel consumption targets in EU, US and JapanCorporate Average Fuel Economy (Uniform Target)Present target: 27,5 mpg= ~ 204 gCO2/km (US Cycle)Penalties: 5,5 $ per 0,1 mpg= ~ 5 € per gCO2/km x vol. carsFuture Target: 35 mpg by 2020= ~ 160 gCO2/km (US Cycle)Parametric approach:Weight (segmentation)Future Target: km/l by 2015= 138 g CO2/km (Japan Cycle)Penalties: ~ €/manufacturerIntegrated Approach: Approximately 50% CO2 reduction by infrastructureParametric approach: Weight (segmentation)Target: 120 gCO2/km by (130 g through Vehicle Technology g through Complementary measures & biofuels)Penalties: / 2013 / 2014 / 201520 / / / € / g CO2/km x vol. carsIntegrated Approach : 5 gr CO2 reduction by biofuels –NO reduction by InfrastructureCommission proposal - under discussion