1. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Where Next for Climate Action? Addressing Social Justice, Ecological Restoration and Climate Safety in a world of limited resources introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, core member biofuelwatch, climate and environmental campaigner, Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council

2. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Social : Environmental : Indigenous The only way we are going to put out the environmental fire is to get on the social justice bus and heal our wounds, because in the end, there is only one bus.

3. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Topics Now! The science is real – what are the issues? Climate Change (CC) –Carbon sinks –Runaway climate change Climate Stabilisation –Community action –International/national/local –Getting on the ‘one bus’ Climate Change Resource Depletion Peak Oil Biosink destruction

4. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Climate Change Global average predicted between 1.7 ˚C and 6.8˚C by 2100 (IPCC(4) 2007) Will be unevenly spread – eg some parts of Africa and poles twice this Water resources decimated Food supplies Flooding Environmental refugees Strange climate events –Tropical cyclone Catarina, Brazil – March 2004 –Norfolk Sea Surges

5. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? How warming might happen? yarqvyyarqvy – Source BBC Website

6. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Hansen “safe” level IPCC 4 th assessment

7. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 2000-2006 3.3% 2006 2005 Atmospheric CO2 – growing 35% more quickly than <2000 18% decline of natural sinks 17% - more fossil fuel use GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Chris Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Skee Houghton, Gregg Marland, Mike Raupach, Erik Buitenhuis, Nathan Gillett

8. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt Non-linear effect? National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

9. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Global Energy Projections, IEA, 2007 71% by 2030

10. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Emission sources Deforestation, agriculture and peat Anthropogenic energy From Stern Report

11. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Wetlands / Peat Pristine peat swamp forest, Sumatra. Kalimantan: Peatland forest on fire

12. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Rainforest Tropical rainforest Rainforest fires

13. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Runaway Climate Change Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon sinks Siberian Tundra melt (Methane) Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet Melting / break up of West Antartica Ice Sheet Switching off of Gulf Stream

14. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Permaforst Carbon sinks: Permafrost Carbon releases when it melts

15. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action?

16. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Positive feedbacks – not on political radar IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically conservative. –Are constrained by what is politically and economically acceptable. –Are also some two years out of date when published. Dynamic positive feedbacks – emerging science during last 2 years All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG) trying to highlight

17. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? How much warming / moreghgs is safe? None! We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago

18. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Rest of World India China Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA The issue is not can we stop climate change BUT can we stop catastopic runaway climate change?

19. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? What could happen 185 million people sub-Saharan Africa (3x UK population) could die of disease. (Christian Aid report) Drought/soil erosion lead to many areas going into “structural famine” 800 million people malnourished now Could increase to 2bn Millions starving to death

20. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Food vs (bio) Fuel Low-Income Food- Deficit countries (LIFDCs) :: Social unrest / food riots Feed prices Huge industry denial Food sovereignty –Best land taken for agrofuels –Even import poor quality food 16 million starve per 1% commodity price rise

21. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? 1.5 m. rise in Bangladesh … But what we would desperately like to rely more on is decisive international action to stop this threat. Sabihuddin Ahmed High Commissioner of Bangladesh to UK, Sept 25 th 2006

22. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Indigenous peoples Crisis of land displacement, food sovereignty, climate/biofuel refugees, deforestation, loss of traditional ways Land grabbing by large corporations See ‘climate change’ policy in North as problem as it is causing social injustice Need to get on same bus!

23. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Where we are at IPCC behind latest science Feedbacks not widely understood Sinks showing early signals of loosing efficacy? Sinks being destroyed Business as usual paradigm prevails International negotiations – no teeth, too slow Indigenous and dispossessed – disempowered, widening poverty gap

24. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? What to do? Protect all carbon sinks –URGENT Moratorium on all old-growth deforestation, peat-land burning and swampland drainage URGENT decarbonisation of global economy –Post-Kyoto with deep cut “Contraction and convergence” model LOCAL ACTION AND BLESSED UNREST Unite North-South, Social Action and Ecological protection

25. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Protect all carbon sinks URGENT Moratorium on all old- growth deforestation, peat- land burning and swampland drainage –Must be protected against destruction for timber, food growing and biofuels development

26. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Ecological restoration UNFCCC must act at Bali Where can big emissions be cut quickly and cost effectively? CUT deforestation - 2Gt CO2 / yr STOP SE ASIA Peat fires – 1.3Gt CO2 / yr Regenerate peat lands – 0.5Gt –8% of current GHGs

27. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Ecological Impacts Massive land use change –Renton Righelato and Dominick V. Spracklen, Science, August 2007 –Ecological restoration and forestation would sequester 2-9 more carbon than biofuels

28. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? 1950200020501900 2100 Rest of World India China Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA Contraction and Convergence Business as Usual (BAU) Emissions are contracting Converging to per capita level Continue to contract to post carbon era

29. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? UNDP Report – pre-Bali

30. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Changing UK situation? White paper 13/3/07 26%-32%“ by 2020 (c.2.1-2.6% annum) 60% by 2050 Govt. wants only 5 year targets Brown not interested in environment IPPR report at least 80% cuts needed UNDP pre-Bali at least 80% cuts George Monbiot – 90% by 2030 GM now thinking 100%

31. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? There is NO 2% excuse ! Phil Woolas, Minister of Climate Change said on 20th September “we see that as much as 15% of world carbon emissions are a direct result of UK economic activity both at home and abroad. “ –Global spread of ‘City business interests’ –Imports from China etc – our dependence on their economy AND THEIR EMISSIONS For the full context of this, see : http://tinyurl.com/ywoo44

32. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? UNDP

33. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Changing EU situation? EU 10/3/07 –Binding unilateral target for a 20% reduction in greenhouse gases for the EU by 2020 (c. 1.5% per annum) BUT –Based on ‘business as usual‘ energy growth –has destructive biofuel policy –and Nuclear etc Merkel UNFCCC bargaining –30% greenhouse gas reductions on 1990 levels for developed countries by 2020 if other big polluters come on board (c. 2.3% per annum)

34. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Changing US situation? Schwarzenegger : California 2006 c. 1% annum Boxer Bill 80% by 2050

35. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? UK can lead Internationally – at UNFCCC, Bali –Germany taking a strong line US! – We do have the wherewithal to take on this challenge, and restructure our economy and ways of living to make deep cuts to our emissions. People have managed such change before – for example during the second world war. I already see people starting to do this at every level from the community to local government to national government to industry etc. Its time to stop arguing about the need to do it and just get on with it.

36. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Environmental Action Hierarchy International/Global Continental National Regional Shire District Personal/Community –UN, Post-Kyoto –EU/US/India/China –Energy policy –Carbon trading –Sustainable Development –Agriculture –Localised planning –Localised economy –Participatory democracy –Local Action –Transition towns

37. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Decarbonisation

38. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 Reduce vehicle emissions by 50% - smaller, more efficient vehicles Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport from economy Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ? Current EU energy policy 90% carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY!

39. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Reduce demand – use energy more carefully, put on a sweater etc Descending the energy emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 Reduce waste – energy saving in homes - insulation Reduce waste in generation Decarbonise – renewables. Decentralised best, but some large scaleneedfor base loads etc Current EU energy policy 90% carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY!

40. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Waste in current system 60-70% of natural gas and coal burnt goes up chimney and is loss in transmission. Decentralised energy –Combined heat and power (CHP) –Single home, city community, industrial area y94hdky94hdk – About the WADE economic model

41. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Decentralised energy

42. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Can it be done? Denmark : 50% electricity decentralised Holland : 40% 15,000 CHP systems already exist in UK – hospitals, universities, factories BUT need much more : UK is near bottom of EU table for implementation yfc4n9yfc4n9 – Combined Heat and Power Association

43. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Big scale renewables On shore wind –50% increase in 2006 = 511Mw=c.0.5 nuclear power station –Key to Government meeting 2010 renewables target –Planning system delays Off shore wind –Will be big provider after 2010

44. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? CSP – Concentrated Solar Power

45. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Microgeneration Solar water heating Small scale wind –BEWARE! Solar energy generation – photovoltaics (PV) Ground source heat pumps Biomass CHP Problem/challenges - Retrofitting? PV Panels at Greenhouse, Norwich

46. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Structural Alternatives Localising economies –de-globalising Food/Agriculture/Production Sustainable/affordable housing –eliminate fuel poverty Community Waste Programmes –Zero Waste Ecoliteracy/eco-education –Appropriate consumption Non-violence/conflict resolution Restoration projects Local renewable energy projects 87fbm87fbm – Incineration Or Something Sensible ? 8gj8c8gj8c - Center for Ecoliteracy

47. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Transition Towns

48. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? CRAGS – Carbon Reduction Action Groups One tonners

49. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? Livestock’s long shadow Impacts on water, land degradation, climate change (18% of emissions) Need for 50% less meat and 50% less meat industry products Meat consumption going up quickly in India and China (part of current high food commodity prices) Need for contraction and convergence of animal husbandry?

50. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? JOIN THE BLESSED UNREST

51. Andrew Boswell November 2007 Where Next for Climate Action? BLESSED UNREST Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to biofuelwatch- subscribe@yahoogroups.com www.biofuelwatch.org.uk D8 Climate March, London Norwich Climate rally: Pottergate on the pathway and the green outside St.Gregory’s Church, at 1200 on Saturday 8th December. National Week of Local Action on Agrofuels from Saturday, 26th January 2008