UCL Environment Institute more extreme storms, floods, drought, heat waves - may leading to food and water insecurity, - may leading to food and water insecurity, - may leading to migration and conflict What are the effects of climate change
UCL Environment Institute How can we deal with uncertain climate change? Twin Approaches What ever we do now, there will still be climate change So we need to 1. Mitigate (reduce our carbon foot-print) 2. Adapt (protect our people)
UCL Environment Institute Exeter Meeting Feb 2005 G8 9 July 2009 Agreed at Copenhagen 2°C What is dangerous climate change?
UCL Environment Institute Source: Hadley Centre CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
UCL Environment Institute Contraction and Convergence Business as usual Global Deal?
UCL Environment Institute Total and per capita emissions – target is 2 tons/capita
UCL Environment Institute What is the UK plan 1.Decarbonise electricity generation 2.Increase energy efficiency 3. Move to electric dominate transport 4. Adapt to predicted climate change
UCL Environment Institute 31 UK possible path to 80% cut by 2050 20102020203020402050 2010 Services Residential Transport Hydrogen Electricity Upstream & non- sector Industry Agriculture Domestic fossil fuel & industry process CO 2 emissions (MtCO 2 per year) 100 200 300 400 500
UCL Environment Institute 32 Growth in UK living standards: with 80% emissions cut GDP per capita 2006=100 250 100 0.5 – 2.0% lower Business as usual 80% emissions cut 0 150 200 20062020203020402050
UCL Environment Institute GOOD NEWS 1 70% of the World Energy requirements for 2030 has yet to be built
UCL Environment Institute GOOD NEWS 2: Carbon Trading - ETS and Future US systems
UCL Environment Institute UCL Carbon Auditors Limited US Patent for calculating annual carbon flux at a 250m resolution for Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Grid for Terrestrial Carbon Credits Annual Carbon Flux
UCL Environment Institute Example of Gabon Customers obtain: Certainty of carbon stock and carbon stock changes, which are: 1. Assessed and monitored against international standards and procedures, providing – 2. Confidence in the accuracy of the data obtained, underpinned by – 3. Highly reputable expertise from the CAL team based at UCL Gabon Annual Carbon Flux UN REDD+ we need to make a tree worth more standing up and being cut down
UCL Environment Institute Adaptation – aim for 2˚C but plan for 4˚C Adaptation essential to protect the people Science can give broad picture of what the future may hold to design policy
UCL Environment Institute Some thoughts 1.Policy makers need to understand uncertainties in the science so they can make informed decisions 2. Climate change is just one of many problems that must be tackled, but it can make other problems worse 3. Alternative Energy.. essential as development needs power and we must alleviate global poverty 4. Natural resources such as forest need to commodified to finance development 5. Global deal must include Developing countries – can not fail again like Copenhagen
UCL Environment Institute “The poorest and those who have contributed least to climate change will be first affected” Ethics and morals “The carbon footprint of the poorest 1 billion people is around 3% of the world’s total footprint……loss of life will be 500 times greater in Africa”