1. Humboldt County Economy 2007 Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club November 6, 2007

2. Humboldt County Economy 2007 By Erick Eschker Department of Economics Humboldt State University Humboldt Economic Index www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum/index.htm

3. Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors

4. Six Sectors and Composite Energy Lumber-based manufacturing Employment Hospitality Retail Housing Composite

5. Energy Not much has changed in two years

6. Lumber Manufacturing Structural Decline but high variability The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

7. Employment Very little change in overall employment Unemployment rate has risen recently

8. Hospitality Slight upward trend The seasonally adjusted Hospitality index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

9. Retail Based on our own survey (we’re always looking for more data providers!) The seasonally adjusted Retail Index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

10. Housing New Real Estate Page on the Index Significant sales drop since summer 2005 40% drop July-Sept (record drop) Sales now at 1997 levels

11. Housing

12. House Price to Rent Ratio Rose very quickly starting in 2003

13. Composite Decline since May Housing and Manufacturing the main reason

14. Forecast We don’t do forecasts Two local Leading Indicators show slowing

15. Forecast This is an important time –Recession? Credit Crunch? Inflation? Federal Reserve Economist on Oct. 22 Uncertainty: –Financial Markets –Housing –Energy Prices –Consumer Spending