1. FOR Q & A

2. CLIMATE STABILITY Changing weather patterns Volatility Wider swings from norms Security of investments & Economic stability

3. TEMPERATUREPRESSUREWINDWEATHER

4. TRENDS IN VARIANCE Prolonged droughts Rains > 2”/day Rains > 2”/day Wide swings in weather Wide swings in weather Timing, intensity and location of precipitation STABILITY RATES OF CHANGE VARIANCE & VOLATILITY UNCERTAINTY & PREDICTABILITY ANOMALIES & SHIFTING PATTERNS GRADIENTS & WIND SPEEDS

5. TRENDS IN VARIANCE WEATHER Prolonged droughts Rains> 2”/day Rains> 2”/day Wide swings Wide swings Timing, intensity and location of precipitation CLIMATE 19001940 19762000 T

6. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FACTORS

7. Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003 January 31; 299: 691-694 FRESHENING OF THE ARCTIC

8. WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL & TRAUMA WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL & TRAUMA WIDER SWINGS IN WEATHER Hurricane Floyd after ’99 drought Severe winter after milder  Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel  Floods & Mudslides  Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches  Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM STORM OF 2003

9. Temperature, o C 15202530 Number of days, n a b c d b/a = 0.5 d/c = 0.75 n = No. of degree-days required Temp — Temp min +2 o C Temperature Dependence of Plasmodium Extrinsic Incubation Period Temp min = 16 o C

10. GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING -- Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) Southern phenotype Shorter daylengths for diapause Later onset of winter

11. The Geographic Distribution of Japanese B Encephalitis Family NYC 1999

12. -CDC WEST NILE VIRUS

13. May 2003 Projected Aug 2003

14. WNV and DROUGHT: CASE REPORTS Romania 1996: Romania 1996: Neurological disease – Hundreds, Fatalities 17. Prolonged drought and heatwave. Bucharest cases concentrated in blockhouses over aging sewage system where C. pipiens was breeding in abundance. Volgograd 1999: Volgograd 1999: Hospitalized 626, Meningoencephalitis 84, Fatalities 40. Followed a drought. Israel 2000 : Israel 2000 : Serologically confirmed 417, Fatalities 35 Drought across southern Europe and Middle East. C. pipiens identified as a vector. US 1999: US 1999: Neurological disease 62, Fatalities 7, Sequelae >½. Severe spring/summer drought, mild winter and 3-week July heatwave. US 2002: US 2002: Human cases 3737, Fatalities 214, 43 US states, DC and 5 Canadian Provinces Severe drought West and Midwest. Absence of snowpack in the Rockies.

15. ST. LOUIS ENCEPHALITIS 1933-2001

18. El Niño Since 1976 El Niño Events Have Increased in Frequency, Intensity & Duration

19. Chavez et al., Science 2003; 299: 217-221 REGIME SHIFT

20. The Western Warm Pool and El Niño

21. El Niño/La Niña and the Jet Stream

22. THE ARCTIC NADW“pump”20%

23. ASIAN DROUGHT & FIRES: 1998

24. COASTAL MARINE ECOSYSTEMS PRESSURES ON REEFS Nutrient overload – urban, rural, air-borne Loss of wetlands – “Nature’s kidneys” Warming and weather extremes Diseases of sea urchins - reef cleaners Overfishing – reef cleaners

25. HEALTH CONSEQUENCES Red Tides: PSP, ASP, NSP Fisheries & nutrition Salinization Cone snails & medicines Biophilia & mental health

27. Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport Air Pollution Acid Rain Climate Change Eutrophication NOxs Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar Ice Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Spills & Leaks MERCURY

28. CLIMATE CHANGE & ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Oil-related Extraction: Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico Refining & benzene: locations and communities Air pollution & inner city truck routes Extreme Weather Events Economic inequities Vulnerabilities – coping, adaptation, restoration, prevention, public health infrastructure But no nation is immune Mozambique

29. ECOLGICAL AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES Predators WNV & Raptors Rodents: Lyme, Hantaviruses, Leptospirosis Scavengers, Decomposers Vulture die off in India Dogs:Rabies Forest Pests and Pathogens Water Q and Q, Vulnerability to Fires Coral Bleaching and Diseases Salinization, Fisheries & Nutrition

30. ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS & DISEASE FUNCTIONAL GROUPS – diversity and “redundancy”of predators, prey, competitors, recyclers, N fixers r-strategists: weeds, insects, rodents, fungi, bacteria, viruses - opportunistic, pioneering species. Huge broods, rapid generation times, good dispersal mechanisms, good colonizers of disturbed environments. “Generalists.” K-strategists: predators - large bodies, small broods, reproduce later in life. Many are “specialists” and good competitors in stable environments.

31. Coral Bleaching: Warming and Microbes Vibrio shiloi & V. coralyticus -infection and immunity are temperature-dependent -optimal infection and lysis at 29ºC release of zooxanthellae ENSO

33. Chavez et al., Science 2003 January 10; 299: 217 THE PACIFIC Warm West, Cold East Regime Shifts Regime Shifts Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691

34. GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING -- Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) – Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) – has shifted toward southern phenotype -- Shorter daylengths (southern) to cue for diapause, with delayed onset of winters Fastest evolutionary response has occurred in northern populations occurred in northern populations (reflecting TMINs in Boreal latitudes) Red squirrels give birth 3 weeks earlier, corresponding to the earlier arrival of spring. Change genetic in origin – squirrels that breed earlier benefit from better access to food and territory, then pass on their early-breeding preferences to the next generation. -- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. -- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B.

35. Average T ~1ºC/C ~2ºC/C Average T ~1ºC/C WINTER & NIGHTTIME TEMPS ~2ºC/C Since 1950

37. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISEASE CLUSTERS

38. WARM WEST COLD EAST PACIFIC ANOMALIES PACIFIC ANOMALIES Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691 AMERICAS AFRICA AUS ASIA

39. ABRUPT PHASE-STATE CHANGE