Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003 January 31; 299: 691-694 FRESHENING OF THE ARCTIC
WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL & TRAUMA WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL & TRAUMA WIDER SWINGS IN WEATHER Hurricane Floyd after ’99 drought Severe winter after milder Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel Floods & Mudslides Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM STORM OF 2003
Temperature, o C 15202530 Number of days, n a b c d b/a = 0.5 d/c = 0.75 n = No. of degree-days required Temp — Temp min +2 o C Temperature Dependence of Plasmodium Extrinsic Incubation Period Temp min = 16 o C
GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING -- Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) Southern phenotype Shorter daylengths for diapause Later onset of winter
The Geographic Distribution of Japanese B Encephalitis Family NYC 1999
WNV and DROUGHT: CASE REPORTS Romania 1996: Romania 1996: Neurological disease – Hundreds, Fatalities 17. Prolonged drought and heatwave. Bucharest cases concentrated in blockhouses over aging sewage system where C. pipiens was breeding in abundance. Volgograd 1999: Volgograd 1999: Hospitalized 626, Meningoencephalitis 84, Fatalities 40. Followed a drought. Israel 2000 : Israel 2000 : Serologically confirmed 417, Fatalities 35 Drought across southern Europe and Middle East. C. pipiens identified as a vector. US 1999: US 1999: Neurological disease 62, Fatalities 7, Sequelae >½. Severe spring/summer drought, mild winter and 3-week July heatwave. US 2002: US 2002: Human cases 3737, Fatalities 214, 43 US states, DC and 5 Canadian Provinces Severe drought West and Midwest. Absence of snowpack in the Rockies.
Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport Air Pollution Acid Rain Climate Change Eutrophication NOxs Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar Ice Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Spills & Leaks MERCURY
CLIMATE CHANGE & ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Oil-related Extraction: Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico Refining & benzene: locations and communities Air pollution & inner city truck routes Extreme Weather Events Economic inequities Vulnerabilities – coping, adaptation, restoration, prevention, public health infrastructure But no nation is immune Mozambique
ECOLGICAL AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES Predators WNV & Raptors Rodents: Lyme, Hantaviruses, Leptospirosis Scavengers, Decomposers Vulture die off in India Dogs:Rabies Forest Pests and Pathogens Water Q and Q, Vulnerability to Fires Coral Bleaching and Diseases Salinization, Fisheries & Nutrition
ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS & DISEASE FUNCTIONAL GROUPS – diversity and “redundancy”of predators, prey, competitors, recyclers, N fixers r-strategists: weeds, insects, rodents, fungi, bacteria, viruses - opportunistic, pioneering species. Huge broods, rapid generation times, good dispersal mechanisms, good colonizers of disturbed environments. “Generalists.” K-strategists: predators - large bodies, small broods, reproduce later in life. Many are “specialists” and good competitors in stable environments.
Coral Bleaching: Warming and Microbes Vibrio shiloi & V. coralyticus -infection and immunity are temperature-dependent -optimal infection and lysis at 29ºC release of zooxanthellae ENSO
Chavez et al., Science 2003 January 10; 299: 217 THE PACIFIC Warm West, Cold East Regime Shifts Regime Shifts Hoerling and Kumar: Science 2003; 299: 691
GENETIC SHIFT IN PHOTPERIODIC RESPONSE CORRELATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING -- Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001 Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) – Wyeomyia smithii (pitcher-plant mosquito) – has shifted toward southern phenotype -- Shorter daylengths (southern) to cue for diapause, with delayed onset of winters Fastest evolutionary response has occurred in northern populations occurred in northern populations (reflecting TMINs in Boreal latitudes) Red squirrels give birth 3 weeks earlier, corresponding to the earlier arrival of spring. Change genetic in origin – squirrels that breed earlier benefit from better access to food and territory, then pass on their early-breeding preferences to the next generation. -- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. -- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B.
Average T ~1ºC/C ~2ºC/C Average T ~1ºC/C WINTER & NIGHTTIME TEMPS ~2ºC/C Since 1950