1. LIBIA, SYRIA, UKRAINE Giovanni Marizza gianni.marizza@yahoo.it 21 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00 Recent/current crises:

2. THE LIBYAN CRISIS (2011)

3. 1st precedent: War between Italy and the Ottoman Empire, 1911 Casus belli: humanitarian reasons (slavery) Casus belli: humanitarian reasons (slavery) True reason: preventing a German intervention (France occupying West, UK East) True reason: preventing a German intervention (France occupying West, UK East) 29 Sept. 1911: war declaration without informing the Parliament 29 Sept. 1911: war declaration without informing the Parliament Collateral damages: civilians killed at Sciara Sciat Collateral damages: civilians killed at Sciara Sciat Mercenaries, arms trafficking, guerilla warfare Mercenaries, arms trafficking, guerilla warfare Air bombing Air bombing Consequences: balkanic wars and WW1 Consequences: balkanic wars and WW1

4. 2nd precedent: Suez crisis, 1956

5. Nasser: nationalization of the Canal Nasser: nationalization of the Canal London, Paris: occupy the Canal London, Paris: occupy the Canal No consultation within NATO No consultation within NATO Casus belli: Israeli intervention, ultimatum to Israel and Egypt Casus belli: Israeli intervention, ultimatum to Israel and Egypt USA irritated (colonialist enterprise) USA irritated (colonialist enterprise)

6. 3rd precedent: Lockerbie 21 Dec 1988: Flight Pan Am 103 Frankfurt- Detroit. 259+11=270 victims (terrorist attack organized by the Libyan Government) 21 Dec 1988: Flight Pan Am 103 Frankfurt- Detroit. 259+11=270 victims (terrorist attack organized by the Libyan Government)

7. 4th precedent: Italy-Libia agreement, 2010

8. Italy-Libia agreement, Bengasi, 30 August 2010 End of post-colonial contentious End of post-colonial contentious Advantages for the Italian enterprises in Libia Advantages for the Italian enterprises in Libia Selex: satellitar system (border control) Selex: satellitar system (border control) Cooperation between Civil Aviations Cooperation between Civil Aviations Building new railways Building new railways Building new electric nets Building new electric nets Building a new subway in Tripoli Building a new subway in Tripoli Fighting illegal immigration Fighting illegal immigration Energy (gas, oil) Energy (gas, oil)

9. 5th precedent: FR-UK agreement, 2010

10. Lancaster House Agreement 2 Nov 2010 Common expeditionary Corps Common expeditionary Corps Mutual support with 2 aircraft carriers Mutual support with 2 aircraft carriers Joint maintenance of Air Force Joint maintenance of Air Force Cooperation (military technologies) Cooperation (military technologies) Common Center for nuclear tests Common Center for nuclear tests

11. 5 precedents + energy resources ______________ = WAR

12. “Harmattan” “Odissey Dawn” “Ellamy”

13. Ineffective sanctions: -individual resources blocking, -oil export embargo, -naval embargo, -NFZ

15. “Europe is a nation composed of many nations: the state who wants to improve its strength at the expenses of neighbouring states, usually becomes weaker itself” (Charles de Montesquieu, 1689- 1755) “Europe is a nation composed of many nations: the state who wants to improve its strength at the expenses of neighbouring states, usually becomes weaker itself” (Charles de Montesquieu, 1689- 1755)

16. May 2014 14 May: Valentine’s coup 14 May: Valentine’s coup 17 May: Disorders in Benghazi, 17 May: Disorders in Benghazi, Tripoli: Parliament attacked by the militias of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, anti-Islamist Tripoli: Parliament attacked by the militias of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, anti-Islamist 80 dead 80 dead KH: former CinC Libyan Army (vs Chad) KH: former CinC Libyan Army (vs Chad) Government: it’s a coup, Haftar is a CIA agent! Government: it’s a coup, Haftar is a CIA agent! Militias: never disbanded Militias: never disbanded

17. THE SYRIAN CRISIS

18. Latin Eastern Kingdoms: Tortosa

19. 1099: conquered by the Crusaders, capital city of the Tripoli County 1183-1291: Logistic naval base of the Templar Knights TORTOSA, today TARTUS

20. Alawites: minoritarian religious faction Majority: Sunni Muslims Other religious/ethnic minorities: Shi’a, Christians, Druse, Kurds…

21. Regime: supported by Iran (Shi’a country) Opposition: supported by Turkey and Sunni Muslim countries

22. Intervention of international community: Libia yes, Syria not. Why?

23. Oil and gas: in Libia yes, in Syria not

24. -Libia internationally isolated, -Syria: involvement of Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah…

25. -Libia: no strategic importance -Syria: yes (bordering with Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel)

26. Kurdish problem, like in Turkey, Iran and Iraq

27. UNSC: consensus about Libia possible, about Syria impossible

28. Russia: Tartus naval base

30. 30 April 2013: “USA has evidence of use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime”

32. Chemical Weapons (WMD?) Who assisted Syria’s regime in developing chemical weapons? Russia, Egypt, Iran? Who assisted Syria’s regime in developing chemical weapons? Russia, Egypt, Iran? 21 Apr 2013: 1.000 civilians killed in Damascus suburb of Ghouta (the regime denies responsibility) 21 Apr 2013: 1.000 civilians killed in Damascus suburb of Ghouta (the regime denies responsibility)

33. Chemical Weapons (situation) OPCW transporting toxic materials from 23 sites to Latakia (22 Apr: 86,5%) OPCW transporting toxic materials from 23 sites to Latakia (22 Apr: 86,5%) Next destination: Gioia Tauro (IT), then MV Cape Ray, equipped with 2 hydrolysis units for neutralizing the stuff in international waters (60 days of work) Next destination: Gioia Tauro (IT), then MV Cape Ray, equipped with 2 hydrolysis units for neutralizing the stuff in international waters (60 days of work) Deadline: 30 June 2014 Deadline: 30 June 2014 Hidden stocks? (to be used in order to blame the rebels) Hidden stocks? (to be used in order to blame the rebels)

34. SO FAR: 160.000 VICTIMS

35. 3 June: presidential elections Organized by the regime Organized by the regime Who will oppose Mr Assad? Who will oppose Mr Assad? With one third of Syrians displaced? With one third of Syrians displaced? Smart Crisis Management! Smart Crisis Management!

36. THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS

37. Historic cornerstones: 1917: WW1, a separated peace treaty Germany-Russia gives Ukraine to Germans (Soviet Republic of Donetsk- Krivoy Rog), 1917: WW1, a separated peace treaty Germany-Russia gives Ukraine to Germans (Soviet Republic of Donetsk- Krivoy Rog), 1918: WW1, the American intervention defeats the Germans and Russia regains Ukraine, 1918: WW1, the American intervention defeats the Germans and Russia regains Ukraine, 1919: Ukraine becomes part of Soviet Union 1919: Ukraine becomes part of Soviet Union 1921-1939: part of Poland 1921-1939: part of Poland 1954: Kruscev, an ethnic Ukrainian, gives Krimea to Ukraine, 1954: Kruscev, an ethnic Ukrainian, gives Krimea to Ukraine, 1991: Ukraine independent (Sevastopol naval base with special status), communist party illegal, 1991: Ukraine independent (Sevastopol naval base with special status), communist party illegal, 2004-2010: Yushenko, Yanukovic, Timoshenko… Orange revolution 2004-2010: Yushenko, Yanukovic, Timoshenko… Orange revolution

38. Principle of nationality Movement of populations / boundaries

41. Role of IOs UN: absent (Russia: P5 member) UN: absent (Russia: P5 member) OSCE: absent (contrasting principles) OSCE: absent (contrasting principles) NATO: July 1997, NUC NATO: July 1997, NUC EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy

42. Role of IOs UN: absent (Russia: P5 member) UN: absent (Russia: P5 member) OSCE: absent (contrasting principles) OSCE: absent (contrasting principles) NATO: July 1997, NUC (COOPERATION) NATO: July 1997, NUC (COOPERATION) EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy (SEPARATION) EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy (SEPARATION) Risk: balkanization Risk: balkanization

44. Suggestion for the final thesis: The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine) The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine)

45. Suggestion for the final thesis: The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine) The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine) A new tool of Crisis Management: Ineffective Sanctions A new tool of Crisis Management: Ineffective Sanctions

46. Suggestion for the final thesis: The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine) The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine) A new tool of Crisis Management: Ineffective Sanctions A new tool of Crisis Management: Ineffective Sanctions The importance of Russian Naval Bases in recent crises (Syria and Ukraine) The importance of Russian Naval Bases in recent crises (Syria and Ukraine)

47. LIBIA, SYRIA, UKRAINE Giovanni Marizza gianni.marizza@yahoo.it 21 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00 Recent/current crises: