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Mobility Transition Model ↑ ↓ Demographic Transition Model.

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Presentation on theme: "Mobility Transition Model ↑ ↓ Demographic Transition Model."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mobility Transition Model ↑ ↓ Demographic Transition Model

2 Demographic Transition Model

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4 AreaBirth RateReasonDeath RateReason LEDCsHigh No contraception Couples have many babies to compensate for the high death rate caused by poor health care Large families need to work on the land to contribute to family income Children look after old Religious reasons High Poor medical facilities Disease Poor nutrition High Infant mortality NICs High/ Decreasing People are used to having many children. Takes time for culture to change Changing status of women Decreasing As an economy develops money becomes available for better health care Housing improves Better childcare MEDCsLow Children are expensive People know their children are going to survive so they can keep their families small Widely available contraceptives Changing status of women Low Better health care Better standard of living

5 Reasons for population change Stage 1 High death rate - poor medical knowledge, diet, water supply and sanitation High birth rate - children used on farms, no reliable contraception Stage 2 Decreasing death rate - medical knowledge and diet improves High birth rate - still children used on farms, no reliable contraception Stage 3 Decreasing death rate - more medical advances, clean water, greatly decreased infant mortality Decreasing birth rate - children needed less on farms, people have smaller families when infant mortality decreases Stage 4 Low death rate - advanced medical services, good living conditions, increased health education Low birth rate - children cost money, contraception widely available, women gain higher status and control

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7 Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating. Reasons Birth Rate is high as a result of: Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education Typical of Britain in the 18th century and some tribes today. Stage 1 - High Fluctuating

8 Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily. Reasons Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox vaccine) Improved hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria today Stage 2 - Early Expanding

9 Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising. Reasons: Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil today Stage 3 - Late Expanding

10 Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population steady. Typical of USA; Sweden; Britain today Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating

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13 Is the model universally applicable? Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events: 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it. 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised. 3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government- introduced ‘onechild’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialised countries. 4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

14 Countries with rapid population growth When a country's population grows quickly it has the following effects The large number of young people have to have services e.g. schools provided for them There are fewer older people, so less money needs to be spent on them There is a relatively small proportion of adults of working age; these people provide the wealth for the services There is pressure on the countryside with the extra population to feed; this can result in overgrazing, over cropping and soil erosion People move to the cities to find work; developing countries with rapidly growing populations have the fastest growing cities in the world Shanty towns grow up on the edge of cities; these are self-constructed buildings of poor quality which can lack vital services such as water, electricity and sanitation Some people apply to migrate to developed countries in order to improve their standard of living Countries with Rapid Population Growth

15 Populations growing too quickly The steps that have been taken to reduce the problems caused by a rapidly growing population include Education about family planning, with the increased availability of a range of contraceptive methods Extra taxes for parents who have large families Extra benefits for the parents that have only one or two children Raising the age of marriage Increasing the industry and wealth in a country - this allows it to "afford" the increased population When a country develops - that is has a higher quality of life, higher standard of living and increased wealth - the birth rate goes down. This is the greatest influence in reducing problems caused by rapid population growth.

16 Countries with Slow Population Growth When a country's population grows slowly it has the following effects It has an ageing population, so large amounts of money is spent in providing services, e.g. healthcare, for older people As there is fewer young people less money needs to be spent on this age group There could be a shortage of workers in the future, with so few young people Migrants move into the country, often to work in the low paid, low status jobs that would otherwise be difficult to find workers for

17 Populations growing too slowly Governments have been concerned when the population of their country is only growing slowly. Indeed some countries, e.g. Hungary and Germany have recently had population decline. The governments have responded by Giving mothers longer paid maternity leave; giving paternity leave to fathers Generous child benefit payments Raising the age of retirement - this increases the workforce and reduces the amount that has to be spent on pensions

18 Population pyramids Pyramid 1 : Here the base is very wide indicating a very high birth rate. The width drops off very quickly. This means people must be dying. Very few reach old age. Few countries are still in this stage today but some rainforest populations would display this pattern. Implications: Clear need for investment into water supplies, health care, food supplies and housing to reduce death rates. Population pyramid for Mozambique 2000 In this graph, notice that in 2000 the 0-4 age group contained the largest number of people, with the numbers thereafter declining steadily as the ages increase. The graph matches stage 1 in the model.

19 Pyramid 2 : Still a large base so high birth rate but also a wider and taller pyramid as more people are living to older ages. This is stage two of the demographic transition model and includes many countries in Africa such as Kenya. Implication: Probable need to invest in education about family planning to reduce birth rate. Possibly indicates that women are undervalued in society so this could be tackled. Projected population pyramid for Mozambique 2025 In the second graph, the largest group in Mozambique in 2025 is still the 0-4 age group, but there are nearly as many people in the 5-29 age groups. Now the population pyramid matches stage 2. matches stage 2.

20 Pyramid 3 : Note the more ‘domed’ shape. It means many people are living to older ages as quality of life improves. There are also proportionately fewer births. This is stage three of the demographic transition model. Chile would be a good example. Implication: As the population becomes increasingly older there may be a need to invest in facilities and services for them. Still a need for continued investment in family planning.

21 Pyramid 4 : Very small base due to the very low birth rates and death rates displayed in the wide top. This would be representative of Australia that has recently come through stage three of the demographic transition model. Implication: Should the situation continue there are serious implications about providing for the elderly population (increasing cost of health care, state pensions) especially as the working population becomes proportionally smaller. This is a major concern in much of the developed world. Population pyramid for the UK 2000 Notice how in the UK 2000 pyramid there is a bulge in the area of the and age groups, with the numbers thereafter reducing fairly steadily as the ages increase. This matches stage 4 of the demographic transition model.

22 Projected population pyramid for the UK 2025 Compare this to the 2025 pyramid, which would be stage 5 in the model. Here the bulge extends much further, covering the age groups 30-64, with the numbers beginning to reduce significantly only after 64.

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24 Concave profile Convex profile

25 The Mobility Transition (Zelinski, 1971) (1) Zelinski observed that modernisation is associated with specific changes in the pattern of mobility. Mobility Transition is a model associating patterns of variation of different types of spatial mobility with the face in the path to modernisation in which a society finds itself in. Zelinski esplicitly considers the existence of different types of migration: a)International migration b)Migration to frontier areas of a country (frontierward) c)Rural-Urban migration d)Urban-urban migration e)Intraurban migration f)Circulation (short-term types of mobility)

26 The Mobility Transition (2) Zelinski also considered the impact of better transportation on mobility. As transportation improve people can stay in their places of origin and commute to work. During phases in which transportation was poor, they would have had to move. As modernisation advances some forms of migration are absorbed by circulation. As electronic communication improves more people may be able to work at home avoinding the need to commute.

27 The Mobility Transition (3)


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