4 AreaBirth RateReasonDeath RateLEDCsHighNo contraception Couples have many babies to compensate for the high death rate caused by poor health care Large families need to work on the land to contribute to family income Children look after old Religious reasonsPoor medical facilities Disease Poor nutrition High Infant mortalityNICsHigh/ DecreasingPeople are used to having many children. Takes time for culture to change Changing status of womenDecreasingAs an economy develops money becomes available for better health care Housing improves Better childcareMEDCsLowChildren are expensive People know their children are going to survive so they can keep their families small Widely available contraceptives Changing status of womenBetter health care Better standard of living
5 Reasons for population change Stage 1High death rate - poor medical knowledge, diet, water supply and sanitationHigh birth rate - children used on farms, no reliable contraceptionStage 2Decreasing death rate - medical knowledge and diet improvesHigh birth rate - still children used on farms, no reliable contraceptionStage 3Decreasing death rate - more medical advances, clean water, greatly decreased infant mortalityDecreasing birth rate - children needed less on farms, people have smaller families when infant mortality decreasesStage 4Low death rate - advanced medical services, good living conditions, increased health educationLow birth rate - children cost money, contraception widely available, women gain higher statusand control
7 Stage 1 - High Fluctuating Birth Rate and Death rate are both high.Population growth is slow and fluctuating.ReasonsBirth Rate is high as a result of:Lack of family planningHigh Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'Need for workers in agricultureReligious beliefsChildren as economic assetsDeath Rate is high because of:High levels of diseaseFamineLack of clean water and sanitationLack of health careWarCompetition for food from predators such as ratsLack of educationTypical of Britain in the 18th centuryand some tribes today.
8 Stage 2 - Early Expanding Birth Rate remains high.Death Rate is falling.Population begins to rise steadily.ReasonsDeath Rate is falling as a result of:Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox vaccine)Improved hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)Improved sanitationImproved food production and storageImproved transport for foodDecreased Infant Mortality RatesTypical of Britain in 19th century;Bangladesh; Nigeria today
9 Stage 3 - Late Expanding Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall.Population rising.Reasons:Family planning availableLower Infant Mortality RateIncreased mechanization reduces need for workersIncreased standard of livingChanging status of womenTypical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil today
10 Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating Birth Rate and Death Rate both low.Population steady.Typical of USA; Sweden; Britain today
13 Is the model universally applicable? Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). Thishas caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps themodel should have a fifth stage added to it.2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It nowseems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever becomeindustrialised.3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence ofindustrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitaryconditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall afteradvances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in manydeveloping countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. Inmany countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the modelsuggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereasthe fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘onechild’ policy.The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such asHong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster ratethan did the early industrialised countries.4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada,Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.
14 Countries with rapid population growth When a country's population grows quickly it has the following effectsThe large number of young people have to have services e.g. schools provided for themThere are fewer older people, so less money needs to be spent on themThere is a relatively small proportion of adults of working age; these people provide the wealth forthe servicesThere is pressure on the countryside with the extra population to feed; this can result in overgrazing,over cropping and soil erosionPeople move to the cities to find work; developing countries with rapidly growing populations havethe fastest growing cities in the worldShanty towns grow up on the edge of cities; these are self-constructed buildings of poor qualitywhich can lack vital services such as water, electricity and sanitationSome people apply to migrate to developed countries in order to improve their standard of living
15 Populations growing too quickly The steps that have been taken to reduce the problems caused by a rapidly growing population include Education about family planning, with the increased availability of a range of contraceptive methods Extra taxes for parents who have large families Extra benefits for the parents that have only one or two children Raising the age of marriage Increasing the industry and wealth in a country - this allows it to "afford" the increased population When a country develops - that is has a higher quality of life, higher standard of living and increased wealth - the birth rate goes down. This is the greatest influence in reducing problems caused by rapid population growth.
16 Countries with Slow Population Growth When a country's population grows slowly it has the following effectsIt has an ageing population, so large amounts of money is spent in providing services,e.g. healthcare, for older peopleAs there is fewer young people less money needs to be spent on this age groupThere could be a shortage of workers in the future, with so few young peopleMigrants move into the country, often to work in the low paid, low status jobs that wouldotherwise be difficult to find workers for
17 Populations growing too slowly Governments have been concerned when the population of their country is only growing slowly. Indeed some countries, e.g. Hungary and Germany have recently had population decline.The governments have responded byGiving mothers longer paid maternity leave; givingpaternity leave to fathersGenerous child benefit paymentsRaising the age of retirement - this increases theworkforce and reduces the amount that has to bespent on pensions
18 Population pyramids Pyramid 1: Here the base is very wide indicating a very high birth rate. The width drops off very quickly. This means people must be dying. Very few reach old age. Few countries are still in this stage today but some rainforest populations would display this pattern. Implications: Clear need for investment into water supplies, health care, food supplies and housing to reduce death rates.Population pyramid for Mozambique 2000In this graph, notice that in 2000 the 0-4 age group contained the largest number of people, with the numbers thereafter declining steadily as the ages increase. The graph matches stage 1 in the model.
19 Pyramid 2: Still a large base so high birth rate but also a wider and taller pyramid as more people are living to older ages. This is stage two of the demographic transition model and includes many countries in Africa such as Kenya. Implication: Probable need to invest in education about family planning to reduce birth rate. Possibly indicates that women are undervalued in society so this could be tackled.matches stage 2.Projected population pyramid for Mozambique 2025In the second graph, the largest group in Mozambique in 2025 is still the 0-4 age group, but there are nearly as many people in the 5-29 age groups. Now the population pyramid matches stage 2.
20 Pyramid 3: Note the more ‘domed’ shape Pyramid 3: Note the more ‘domed’ shape. It means many people are living to older ages as quality of life improves. There are also proportionately fewer births. This is stage three of the demographic transition model. Chile would be a good example. Implication: As the population becomes increasingly older there may be a need to invest in facilities and services for them. Still a need for continued investment in family planning.
21 Pyramid 4: Very small base due to the very low birth rates and death rates displayed in the wide top. This would be representative of Australia that has recently come through stage three of the demographic transition model. Implication: Should the situation continue there are serious implications about providing for the elderly population (increasing cost of health care, state pensions) especially as the working population becomes proportionally smaller. This is a major concern in much of the developed world.Population pyramid for the UK 2000Notice how in the UK 2000 pyramid there is a bulge in the area of the and age groups, with the numbers thereafter reducing fairly steadily as the ages increase. This matches stage 4 of the demographic transition model.
22 Projected population pyramid for the UK 2025 Compare this to the 2025 pyramid, which would be stage 5 in the model. Here the bulge extends much further, covering the age groups 30-64, with the numbers beginning to reduce significantly only after 64.
25 The Mobility Transition (Zelinski, 1971) (1) Zelinski observed that modernisation is associated with specific changes in the pattern of mobility.Mobility Transition is a model associating patterns of variation of different types of spatial mobility with the face in the path to modernisation in which a society finds itself in. Zelinski esplicitly considers the existence of different types of migration:International migrationMigration to frontier areas of a country (frontierward)Rural-Urban migrationUrban-urban migrationIntraurban migrationCirculation (short-term types of mobility)
26 The Mobility Transition (2) Zelinski also considered the impact of better transportation on mobility.As transportation improve people can stay in their places of origin and commute to work. During phases in which transportation was poor, they would have had to move.As modernisation advances some forms of migration are absorbed by circulation. As electronic communication improves more people may be able to work at home avoinding the need to commute.