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© OECD/IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook Energy trends and challenges to 2030 Dr. Fabien Roques Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency Presentation to the French-Serbian European Summer University 20 October 2006
© OECD/IEA Outline Energy trends and strategic challenges – ‘Reference Scenario’ Secuity of supply CO2 emissions Energy and development Impact of supply side ‘Deferred investment’ scenario World ‘Alternative Policies Scenario’ Impact of policies under consideration
© OECD/IEA The Context The world is facing twin energy threats Inadequate and insecure supplies Environmental damage, including climate change There is an urgent need to curb the growth in fossil-fuel demand & related emissions WEO-2006 is a direct response to G8 request for advice on alternative energy scenarios WEO-2006 will be released on 7 November => All numbers presented are based on WEO 2004 and WEO 2005
© OECD/IEA Scenario Approach Two scenarios depict markedly different energy futures Reference Scenario Incorporates assumptions about economic & population growth, energy prices, technology & public policies Does not take account of any possible, potential or even likely new energy & environment policies World Alternative Policy Scenario Assumes environmental & energy-security policies now under consideration are adopted Impact on prices, global energy balance & call on MENA oil/ gas
© OECD/IEA Energy Trends & Strategic Challenges Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA World Primary Energy Demand Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario Coal Oil Gas Other renewables Nuclear Hydro Mtoe 1971
© OECD/IEA World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Oil, gas and coal together account for 83% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear power Hydro power Other renewables Mtoe
© OECD/IEA Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2003 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia 62% 51% 42% 16% 10% 9% 22% 39% 49% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% OECDTransition economiesDeveloping countries
© OECD/IEA Challenge 1: Security of Supply
© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: Implications for Energy Security The threat to the world’s energy security is real & growing The share of transport in total oil use rises in all regions Reliance on a small number of oil producers – notably in OPEC Middle East increases sharply OECD & developing Asian oil & gas imports set to grow further Will the investment come?
© OECD/IEA Age of Installed Capacity in Europe GW Oil Gas Coal Nuclear < 10 years years years > 30 years Europe's power plants are ageing: more than half the current capacity could be retired by 2030
© OECD/IEA Cumulative Energy Investment in the Reference Scenario, More than 60% of total energy supply investments will go into the power sector OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Transition economies China Other Asia Latin America North Africa Other Africa Middle East billion dollars (2004) OilGasElectricityCoal
© OECD/IEA EU-25 Electricity Generation, CoalOilGasNuclearHydroWindOther renewables
© OECD/IEA World Renewables Electricity Generation The share of non-hydro renewables will triple by 2030, while hydropower will grow modestly 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Other renewablesHydro
© OECD/IEA EU Gas Supply Balance Rising demand – mainly for power generation – and declining output will cause net imports to surge bcm ProductionNet imports
© OECD/IEA EU Fossil Fuel Net Imports The EU will become increasingly dependent on energy imports, especially oil and natural gas Mtoe CoalOilGas
© OECD/IEA World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to 115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%
© OECD/IEA MENA Net Oil Exports MENA plays an increasingly important role in international trade, its net exports surging from 22 mb/d in 2004 to 39 mb/d in 2030 mb/d
© OECD/IEA MENA Crude Oil & NGL Production by Country MENA’s share of world oil production rises from 35% in 2004 to 44% in 2030 in the RS, with Saudi production rising to over 18 mb/d mb/d IranIraqKuwaitOther Middle EastSaudi ArabiaUAENorth Africa
© OECD/IEA Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production by Source in the Reference Scenario Based on its reserves and global demand trends, Saudi oil production is projected to reach 18 mb/d in 2030
© OECD/IEA MENA Oil Exports through the “Dire Straits” Much of the additional oil and LNG exports from MENA in the future will be shipped through just three maritime routes
© OECD/IEA World Proven Oil and Gas Reserves MENA share of global oil and gas reserves is much higher than its share of current production, suggesting strong potential for growth Natural gas Other non- MENA 28% Iran 16% Other MENA 8% Saudi Arabia 4% Qatar 14% UAE 8% Russia 27% Oil Iraq 9% Iran 10% Kuwait 8% Other MENA 14% Saudi Arabia 20% Non-MENA 39%
© OECD/IEA Proven Natural Gas Reserves Gas reserves, concentrated in the Middle East & the transition economies, are equal to 66 years of current production
© OECD/IEA Major Net Inter-Regional Gas Trade Flows Inter-regional gas trade triples by 2030, with most new exports coming from the Middle East, Africa and Russia
© OECD/IEA Challenge 2: Carbon Dioxide Emissions
© OECD/IEA Global emissions grow 50% between now and 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s World Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions
© OECD/IEA CO 2 Increase, OECD CO 2 additions only three quarters of Chinese CO 2 rise, but OECD emissions per capita still two times higher in ChinaOECD million tonnes North America Pacific Europe tonnes per capita
© OECD/IEA Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Global emissions grow by just over half between 2003 & 2030, with the bulk of the increase coming from developing countries 24 Gt Gt
© OECD/IEA Challenge 3: Energy and Poverty
© OECD/IEA Energy Use & Human Development Energy is a prerequisite to economic & human development, but the relationship is very complex In practice, the level of human development is linked to Absolute amount of energy used per capita Share of modern energy services – especially electricity – in energy use
© OECD/IEA HDI & Primary Energy Demand per Capita, 2002 There is a strong link between per capita energy use & the UN’s HDI - particularly for the least developed countries
© OECD/IEA Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030 Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries
© OECD/IEA Bringing Modern Energy to the World’s Poor Many poor households will still be using dirty & inefficient traditional fuels for cooking in 2030 Number of people rises from 2.5 billion today to 2.7 billion UN Millennium Project recommendation to halve number by 2015 will not be met on current trends Access to electricity is set to improve, but not fast enough 1.6 billion people have no access today, falling only slightly to 1.5 billion in 2015 & 1.4 billion in 2030 Needs to fall to 1 billion to achieve Millennium Development Goal
© OECD/IEA Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity
© OECD/IEA Implications of deferred investment in MENA countries
© OECD/IEA Deferred Investment Scenario How would global energy markets evolve if investment MENA upstream oil industry grew slower than in the Reference Scenario? Investment is assumed to remain constant at its share of historical GDP in each country MENA oil production is lower compared to the Reference Scenario, and the gap is widening over time Oil prices are driven higher - an increase of 32% over the Reference Scenario in dragging up gas, coal and electricity prices MENA gas production is also lower compared to the Reference Scenario due to Reduced global gas demand & call on MENA gas Lower associated oil/gas output
© OECD/IEA MENA Crude Oil Production (including NGLs) MENA’s share of global oil production falls from 35% in 2004 to 33% in the DIS. Saudi production reaches 14 mb/d in 2030 Difference mb/d Reference Scenario Deferred Investment Scenario
© OECD/IEA MENA Net Natural Gas Exports MENA gas exports are much lower in the DIS, as higher gas prices & lower GDP choke off demand in the main importing regions bcm Reference Scenario 24 bcm 116 bcm 206 bcm Deferred Investment Scenario
© OECD/IEA World Alternative Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA Mapping Out an Alternative Energy Future Reference Scenario trends are not set in stone The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses impact of government policies under consideration Responds to call to IEA from G8 & IEA ministers To “advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future" different policies worldwide to Improve efficiency in energy production & use Increase reliance on non-fossil fuels Bolster output of oil & gas in net importing countries Macroeconomic, population & oil/gas price assumptions are as per the Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA Examples of Policies included in the Alternative Scenario Power generation Renewable energy (e.g., EU renewables directive) Cleaner coal technology (e.g., China and India) Nuclear Transport sector Improve vehicle fuel efficiency (e.g. strengthening of US CAFE standards, extension of Chinese standards) Increased sales of alternative fuel vehicles and fuels (e.g., biofuels in Europe, Brazil) Residential and commercial sectors Building codes (e.g., US) Efficiency standards and labelling for appliances (e.g., India)
© OECD/IEA Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are both 10% lower in 2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mix Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Scenario OilGas mb/d bcm 12.1 mb/d 500 bcm
© OECD/IEA Reduction in Oil Demand in the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario, 2030 Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the combined current production of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nigeria
© OECD/IEA Global Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios million tonnes of CO 2 CoalOilGasAlternative Policy ScenarioReference Scenario In 2030, CO 2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990
© OECD/IEA Contributory Factors in CO 2 Reduction Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 49% 10% 21% 12% 8% OECD 63% 1% 21% 15% Transition economies 67% 7% 17% 5% 4% Developing countries 58% World End-use efficiency gains 7% Fuel switching in end uses 20% Increased renewables in power generation 10% Increased nuclear in power generation 5% Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
© OECD/IEA Power Sector CO 2 Emissions In 2030, coal plants in developing countries will produce more CO 2 than the entire power sector in the OECD Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas Coal Mt of CO2 OECDDeveloping countriesTransition economies
© OECD/IEA Making the Alternative Policy Scenario a Reality Formidable hurdles exist to the adoption & implementation of the Alternative Policy Scenario It will require considerable political to push through those policies Private-sector support & international cooperation will be essential Action is needed urgently Delaying implementation by a decade would reduce cut in cumulative emissions to 2030 from 8% to 2% Delays in stepping up R&D – particularly carbon capture & storage – would hinder cutting emissions after 2030
© OECD/IEA Key Results If governments stick with current policies, global energy needs will be more than 50% higher in 2030 than today Projected market trends raise serious concerns Increased risk for energy security Rising environmental concerns Persistent energy poverty Further underinvestment in oil and gas would drive up prices & depress global GDP growth, eventually harming producers too More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand and emission significantly
© OECD/IEA Summing Up The need to diversify energy sources & mitigate emissions is more urgent than ever Global energy system is on an unsustainable path Strong new policies could sharply reduce the rate of increase in demand & emissions Economic cost of these policies would be more than outweighed by the economic benefits alone In the longer term, technology development will be critical to a sustainable energy system Governments also need to tackle market barriers to ensure investment is forthcoming Rich countries need to help developing countries address energy poverty
© OECD/IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Thank you
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