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ToR# 9 Principal Investigator Abul Barkat Co-Investigators Matiur Rahman, Abdullah Al Hussain, Subhash Kumar Sen Gupta, & Faisal Mohammad Ahamed Manob.

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Presentation on theme: "ToR# 9 Principal Investigator Abul Barkat Co-Investigators Matiur Rahman, Abdullah Al Hussain, Subhash Kumar Sen Gupta, & Faisal Mohammad Ahamed Manob."— Presentation transcript:

1 ToR# 9 Principal Investigator Abul Barkat Co-Investigators Matiur Rahman, Abdullah Al Hussain, Subhash Kumar Sen Gupta, & Faisal Mohammad Ahamed Manob Sakti Unnayan Kendro (MSUK) House 05, Road 08, Mohammadia Housing Society, Mohammadpur, Dhaka 1207 Principal Investigator Abul Barkat Co-Investigators Matiur Rahman, Abdullah Al Hussain, Subhash Kumar Sen Gupta, & Faisal Mohammad Ahamed Manob Sakti Unnayan Kendro (MSUK) House 05, Road 08, Mohammadia Housing Society, Mohammadpur, Dhaka 1207 IMPROVING THE TARGETING EFFECTIVENESS OF SOCIAL SAFETY NETS IN BANGLADESH Presented at Workshop on Research to Inform Food and Nutrition Security Policies Ruposhi Bangla Hotel Dhaka : November 28, 2012

2 Background and Objectives 2  Every 3 rd household (31.5%; HIES 2010) live in poverty  Social safety net programmes (SSNP) have been mainstay of poverty alleviation strategy since independence  Currently, 24.6% HHs (Rural 30.1% & Urban 9.4%) receive SSNP benefit (HIES 2010), which was 13% in 2005  In FY 2012-13, Tk. 227.5 billion allocated under Social Protection & Empowerment (11.87% of the budget & equivalent to 2.18% of the GDP) (Social protection 75%; empowerment 25%) Large amount of money spent on SSNP; number of beneficiaries increasing Often questioned – whether most eligible persons receive SSNPs? TARGETING ERROR (both inclusion and exclusion) is thought to be a serious drawback to reach the food insecure and the poor, in addition to capacity constraints (e.g., constrained budget) Large amount of money spent on SSNP; number of beneficiaries increasing Often questioned – whether most eligible persons receive SSNPs? TARGETING ERROR (both inclusion and exclusion) is thought to be a serious drawback to reach the food insecure and the poor, in addition to capacity constraints (e.g., constrained budget)

3 Background and Objectives … contd.. 3  Recent studies identified 4 potential sources of targeting errors: 1.Mismatch of geographical allocations of resources & poverty rates 2.Use of improper targetting indicators 3.Even if design of SSN targeting mechanism is sound, political economy & implementation issues at local level overrides it 4.Institutional issues at central level foster overlaps and gaps in coverage Such targeting errors reduce the resources available to support poorest & most food insecure households. Therefore, objective of Government’s spending on SSNPs not fulfilled effectively.

4 4 This research is expected to:  Provide a comprehensive review of SSNP targeting mechanism & errors that will enable GoB to improve targeting so that it better reaches the food insecure and the poor  Contribute to achieve major national goals of National Food Policy (2006) & National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008-2015) Objectives:  To map the major sources of targeting errors in social safety nets & assess their relative contribution  To recommend ways to decrease inclusion & exclusion errors at the programme-level based on experiences in Bangladesh and in South Asia regions  To identify potential ways forward for building a SSN system in Bangladesh Objectives:  To map the major sources of targeting errors in social safety nets & assess their relative contribution  To recommend ways to decrease inclusion & exclusion errors at the programme-level based on experiences in Bangladesh and in South Asia regions  To identify potential ways forward for building a SSN system in Bangladesh Background and Objectives … contd..

5 Methodology and Data Sources 5 As per ToR, Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) was the major data source to investigate into targeting performance (inclusion and exclusion errors) of public SSNPs in general and by individual programmes in particular.  The methodology was designed assigning special emphasis on analysis of relevant HIES data.  Preliminary investigation revealed that out of 30 public SSNPs included in HIES 2010, more than 20 programmes have <100 samples (very negligible compared to their countrywide beneficiaries). (E.g., only 4 beneficiary HHs of Maternity Allowance programme included in HIES whose national beneficiary is 88,000.)  To avoid representation problem, study methodology was redesigned in consultation with TAT members & other experts at FAO/NFPCSP.

6 Methodology and Data Sources …contd… 6  From HIES 2010 data: Analysis made aggregating all beneficiary HHs of all 30 programmes (the term is “public safety net beneficiaries”) together & then for each of the 8 programmes with more than 100 sample HHs.  Recent studies conducted by other organizations/individuals: For the remaining programmes, we reviewed recent studies conducted by other organizations/individuals & used their findings.  Consultation with experts: For the purpose of drawing inferences on the remaining programmes, we consulted experts who have conducted research on safety net targeting or worked in relevant sectors.  Primary data collection: Even after the above three exercises, inferences on some programmes will not be possible. For those programmes a survey will be conducted to obtain primary data from the beneficiary and eligible non-beneficiary HHs.

7 7 Major Findings based on Secondary Analysis of HIES 2010

8 The HIES (2010) includes (Section 1 Part C) 30 social safety net programmes. The respondent households (n=12,240) were asked 7 questions on safety net programmes. The questions covered: The HIES 2010 and SSNP in Bangladesh Whether the household (any member of the household) has been included in any SSNP in the preceding 12 months If “Yes”, which programme(s) When s/he was included in the programme (month and year) What benefit s/he is entitled to receive from the programme What benefit (cash/kind) s/he has received How much money s/he had to spend to be included in the programme If “not included”, what was the reason for exclusion (both genuine and defects) 8 Other parts of HIES questionnaire include demographic & socioeconomic information of household and members. The broad variables/indicators are: Individual/Household level information available in the HIES 2010 Age, sex, marital status, religion/ethnicity, education and literacy, disability, illness and injury, home, housing and basic service (water, sanitation and electricity), land ownership, asset description Earning status, employment status, income, economic activity (including agricultural, livestock, fisheries etc), calamity and disaster, loan and remittance, household food and non- food consumption

9 9 The HIES 2010 and SSNP in Bangladesh Programme Types Total public spending on SSNP (FY 2012-13) Budgetary allocations (for HIES-2010 Programmes) Total Amount (in billion Taka) Pension Amount (in billion Taka) Amount without Pension (in billion Taka) % Total Amount % without Pension Social Protection Programmes 169.445.2124.259.681.3 Social Empowerment Programmes 58.20 42.9 Total SSNP Budget 227.645.2182.455.469.1 55% of the SSNP budget spent on programmes listed in HIES 2010; Pension constitute 20% of SSNP budget (Is ‘Pension’ SSNP?) Considering the 30 programmes listed in the HIES is a perfect sample for generalizations about overall public safety net sector

10 SSNP Beneficiary Targeting The first research issue is identification of targeting errors which can be grouped as inclusion error—meaning inclusion of non-eligible & exclusion error—meaning exclusion of eligible persons Poverty—the most essential targeting criteria ‘Poverty’/’extreme poverty’/’poor household’ is an essential criterion for all the SSNPs along with other criteria such as low income, landlessness, disability, gender, old age, maternity & other vulnerability etc. 10 SSNP Targeting of Beneficiary Inclusion Criteria Exclusion Criteria Priority Criteria Essential Criteria We have compiled all the eligibility (inclusion & exclusion) criteria for most of the selected public SSNPs from relevant documents of the respective programmes.

11 Household demography and receipt of SSNP benefits  Nationally, households with 7-8 and 5-6 members are ahead of other household sizes in terms of receipt of SSNP benefit. Respectively 29% and 28% of beneficiary households are of these sizes.  In rural areas, every 3 rd beneficiary household consists of 1-2 members.  Nationally, 86% households are male headed & 14% female headed. Of SSNP beneficiary households, 85% male headed and 15% female headed.  A 30% household receive SSNP benefit where household head is more than 60 years old. 11

12 12 SSNP Beneficiary HHs and land ownership status Land ownership category FrequencyPercent Landless 1906.4 <15 decimals but not landless 1,54151.6 15-49 decimals 45215.1 50 decimals and more 80627.0 Total 2,989100.0  Landlessness or HHs with less than 15 decimal of land is an essential/priority criterion for SSNPs such as Old Age Allowance, Widow Allowance, Disability Allowance, VGD, VGF, Maternal Voucher Scheme, Employment Generation for Extreme Poor (former 100 Days EGP) etc Programme Name 50 decimals and more (%) Programme Name 50 decimals and more (%) General Relief Activities11.2 VGF17.9 Widowed Allowance15.1 Stipend for Primary Students27.6 Gratuitous Relief15.5 Stipend for Secondary Female Student45.7 Old age Allowance16.7Agriculture Rehabilitation58.0

13 13 Respondent Type Literacy Status N LiterateIlliterate All respondent of HIES58.841.247,323 SSNP beneficiary Respondent38.961.13,475 SSNP Non-beneficiary, below UPL*43.756.312,786 Below UPL, all respondent42.457.614,237 Below LPL, all respondent37.662.47,748 *Defined as eligible Non-beneficiary of SSNP **This table is prepared for individuals. If a household is considered poor then all the members within that HH are considered as poor. ***A person aged 7 years and above and who is able to write a letter is considered as literate in the HIES Poverty, SSNP beneficiaries and literacy status Old age Allowance (13. 6) Widowed Allowance (13.9) Housing Support (20) Test Relief (25) Allowance for Insolvent Disabled (28.1) VGF (28.5) Cash for Work (29.4) VGD (30) Gratuitous Relief (36.4) Open market sales (37.5) Agriculture Rehabilitation (44.1), Literacy status of beneficiaries of individual programmes (% literate):

14 Housing, sanitation, electricity and availability of cell phone 21% have muddy wall and another 26% have walls made of hemp, hay, bamboo. 4% have roof made of mud, tally and wood while only 3% have concrete made roof. Very negligible number of beneficiary households of the programmes designed for the ultra poor or other vulnerable groups (e.g., old age allowance, widow allowance, disability allowance, VGD, VGF, GR, TR, FFW etc) have walls or roofs made of brick/cement. Only 11% beneficiary households have sanitary latrines. 39% beneficiary households have electricity connections at their residences. Nationally, 55% HHs have electricity connections (rural 42.5%, urban 90% Regardless of programmes, more than half (51.1%) beneficiary households own cell phone. Nationally, 64% households have cell phone. No data is available for individuals in the HIES. 14

15 15 Poverty, Income, Expenditure and Social Safety Net Poverty, Income, Expenditure and Social Safety Net

16 Poverty HCR and SSNP benefit flow Division % of HH receiving SSNP Benefit (Survey Year 2010) Incidence of poverty (HCR) by CBN Method (HIES 2010) TotalRuralUrbanTotalRuralUrban National24.630.19.431.535.221.3 Barisal34.437.220.739.439.239.9 Chittagong20.024.57.426.231.011.8 Dhaka18.927.86.030.538.818.0 Khulna37.343.316.732.131.035.8 Rajshahi20.722.910.235.736.630.7 Rangpur33.735.123.746.247.237.0 Sylhet23.526.110.528.130.515.0  Highest % of HHs (37.3%) received benefit from SSNPs in Khulna division. On the basis of poverty HCR, Khulna division ranks fourth  Poverty HCR is highest in Rangpur division (HCR 46.2% and 30.1% using the Upper and the Lower poverty lines respectively), on the basis of SNP beneficiaries, it ranks 3rd position with 33.7% beneficiary HHs 16 Regional disparity (improper allocation of resources) !!!

17 % distribution of beneficiary and non-beneficiary HHs by income deciles and residence (rural-urban) Household Income Deciles SSN beneficiary households (%)Non-beneficiary households (%) NationalRuralUrbanNationalRuralUrban Lower 5%7.07.35.74.45.72.4 Decile-113.36.99.88.912.04.5 Decile-211.712.58.89.511.37.0 Decile-312.013.37.09.310.97.1 Decile-411.912.310.29.49.59.1 Decile-512.011.613.79.410.08.4 Decile-610.39.613.09.99.610.3 Decile-710.09.611.510.0 Decile-88.27.89.910.69.512.2 Decile-96.05.29.111.39.314.2 Decile-104.62.87.011.88.117.1 Top 5%1.61.13.46.13.99.3 Total100.0 N2,9892,3746159,2515,4663,785 17

18 % distribution of beneficiary HH of major SSNPs by income deciles Major Safety Net Programmes (HIES 2010) Household Income Deciles (HIES 2010) L5%D1D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9D10T5% Old Age Allowance 16.326.211.110.810.210.08.8 6.34.73.20.9 Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women 16.821.414.312.610.912.610.58.45.52.11.70.4 General Relief Activities 6.013.610.912.814.712.512.111.36.83.41.90.0 Agriculture Rehabilitation 3.38.411.79.0 11.59.513.49.710.47.32.6 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) 2.512.3 13.115.69.017.211.57.41.60.0 Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Non-cash 3.29.313.415.014.216.611.57.98.32.21.60.2 Stipend for Primary Students 3.38.913.712.913.712.410.09.27.46.0 2.0 Secondary and Higher Secondary Stipend 3.16.57.38.510.89.212.78.512.313.910.45.0 Only programmes with more than 100 beneficiary households in the HIES 2010 considered. 18

19 Are the HHs getting SSNP poor? SSNPs are meant for the poor. In Bangladesh, 24.6% HHs receive SSNP (where the poverty rate is 31.5%) Given an ideal situation (i.e., safety net is for the poor), the above figures seem satisfactory. However, the situation is not as ideal as the figures appear. The reality is as below: 19 SSNP beneficiary HHs below Poverty Lines (HIES, 2010)

20 SSNP beneficiary households below Poverty Lines in the CBN Method (by division and rural urban) DivisionsLocationBelow Upper Poverty LineBelow Lower Poverty Line National Total 40.524.0 Rural 40.225.1 Urban 41.620.0 Barisal Total 47.331.1 Rural 43.930.0 Urban 61.335.5 Chittagong Total 36.219.4 Rural 36.819.5 Urban 33.818.8 Dhaka Total 41.824.4 Rural 42.326.9 Urban 40.116.6 Khulna Total 41.220.3 Rural 39.520.6 Urban 48.319.3 Rajshahi Total 30.517.9 Rural 28.617.9 Urban 37.718.0 Rangpur Total 47.832.0 Rural 50.334.2 Urban 38.924.4 Sylhet Total 31.424.7 Rural 33.527.8 Urban 14.30.0

21 % distribution of SSNP beneficiary HHs (8 major SSNPs) by CBN poverty status, HIES 2010 Programme Name HIES Sample Household Beneficiaries below UPL Beneficiaries below LPL Frequency% % Old Age Allowance55825545.715527.8 Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women 23811046.26025.2 General Relief Activities26510840.86223.4 Agriculture Rehabilitation54614826.47813.9 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) 1225343.42722.1 Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Non-cash 49424649.815130.6 Stipend for Primary Students 59930651.620133.6 Secondary and Higher Secondary Stipend 2607328.14216.2 21

22 22 Poverty and receipt of SSNP benefit

23 23 Are these non-poor households borderline poor? (Tk.)

24 24 Per capita expenditure of poor HHs and SSN beneficiary HHs Are these non-poor households borderline poor?

25 25 Poverty status of SSNP beneficiaries with and without SSNP benefit amount  Over 60% beneficiaries received ≤ Tk.100 from their respective SSNP in a month; 33% received between Tk.100 and Tk.300, and only 4% received between Tk. 301 and Tk.500. What happens if the amount is deducted from the HH income? If SSNP benefit is deducted from the income of the beneficiary households, poverty rate increases by only 2 percentage points

26 26 Poverty Status of beneficiary household (without the benefit amount) by shifted Upper poverty line

27 27 % of Benefit Received by Beneficiary Households

28 79% of all households spend more than half of their consumption expenditure in food. Rate is highest (92.2%) in lowest income decile. Rate is lowest (44.7%) in top income decile. Distribution by consumption expenditure deciles provide similar result. 79% of all households spend more than half of their consumption expenditure in food. Rate is highest (92.2%) in lowest income decile. Rate is lowest (44.7%) in top income decile. Distribution by consumption expenditure deciles provide similar result. 28 % of food expenditure in consumption expenditure

29 29 % of food expenditure in consumption expenditure by different type of Household

30 30 Targeting errors in certain SSNPs using programme specific eligibility criteria (HIES 2010) Programmes & CriteriaError Found (%) 1 Old age allowance: Minimum age criteria (male 65 years, female 62 years)35.2 and 35.6 Annual Income of beneficiary (less than Taka 3000)99.5 Beneficiary is from a landless household19.4 Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP12.4 More than one beneficiary from the same Household1.8 2 Allowance for the Widowed Deserted and Destitute Female is a Widow/ Deserted by Husband /Destitute25.2 Annual income <12000 Tk.32.4 Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP6.3 3 General Relief Activities Household Affected by Natural Disaster 84.9 Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) 76.6 Landless/Less than 10 decimal of land 50.2 Note: Certain indicators are not available in the HIES

31 31 Programmes & CriteriaError Found (%) 4 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) programme Landless/Having Less than.15 acres of land 36.9 Female Household head 84.4 Household affected by Natural Calamity 87.7 Multiple Beneficiary from same Household 0.8 Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP 4.9 5 Gratuitous Relief-Non-cash Household Affected by Natural Disaster 88.9 Annual income of Beneficiary <3000 Tk. 99.6 Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) 69.4 Landless/Have Less than 10 decimal of land 45.6 6 Stipend for Secondary and Higher Secondary Female Students Total monthly Household income<2500 Taka 95.4 Landless/Owning less than.50 acres 44.6 Note: Certain indicators are not available in the HIES Targeting errors in certain SSNPs using programme specific eligibility criteria (HIES 2010)

32 32 On leakage and targeting error in SSNP in the Sixth Five Year Plan On leakage and targeting error in SSNP in the Sixth Five Year Plan The Sixth Five Year Plan of the country states coverage issues, targeting beneficiaries, leakages, and disparity in regional distribution etc as the key challenges of implementing SSNPs are. Some of the highlights are as follows:  While coverage is relatively low, a significant number of HHs gain access to multiple SSNPs. A quarter of HHs were receiving transfers from more than one SSNP.  Over 11% households were participating in at least two of the three programs – VGD, FFE and FFW. Coverage in urban areas remains low.  27% VGD beneficiaries are not poor.  11% participants of PESP meet none of the eligibility criteria; almost none of the beneficiaries meet at least three criteria. Almost 47% PESP beneficiaries are non-poor and incorrectly included in program.  All HHs within less-poor Upazila are denied assistance, including those with very high food insecurity.

33 33 On leakage and targeting error in SSNP in the Sixth Five Year Plan …..contd. On leakage and targeting error in SSNP in the Sixth Five Year Plan …..contd.  Leakage in FFW program is 26%.  Leakage in female stipend programs 10%-12%.  About 20%-40% budgetary allocations for female secondary stipend program do not reach beneficiaries.  Leakages show a strong correlation with number of intermediaries in the transfer process.  HIES 2005 showed regional disparity in distribution of households receiving social protection benefits. Barisal and Rajshahi divisions, with the highest incidence of poverty, did not have the correspondingly higher number of social protection beneficiaries. In contrast, Sylhet Division, with the second lowest poverty incidence had the highest proportion of social protection recipients.

34 34 Concluding observations  Coverage & budgetary allocation in SSNP sector – increasing every year  Every 4 th HH is covered by SSNP (HIES 2010)  The declining trend of poverty over the years at a rate of 1.7% justifies Government’s spending on SSNP.  No concrete evidence that government’s spending on SSNP is being received by the poor and hence poverty is declining.  Large number of beneficiary HHs of major SSNPs are not poor at least in terms of official measures of poverty.  However, it is also not true that the benefits are being captured by the elites since most beneficiaries are from the lower income deciles.  False prioritization (high inclusion error) exists.

35 35 Concluding observations  The number of targeting criteria for the existing SSNPs are huge. Some are obsolete and sometimes impractical. (e.g., annual income { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "ImageObject", "contentUrl": "http://images.slideplayer.com/13/3798825/slides/slide_35.jpg", "name": "35 Concluding observations  The number of targeting criteria for the existing SSNPs are huge.", "description": "Some are obsolete and sometimes impractical. (e.g., annual income

36 36 We welcome your valuable comments and suggestions for the improvement of the st udy Thank You

37 Backup Slides 37

38 38 Programmes Beneficiaries (Nationally) Beneficiaries in the HIES 2010 Old Age Allowance2475000558 Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women 920000238 Allowances for the Financially Insolvent Disabled28600032 Maternity allowance programme for the Poor Lactating Mothers 880004 Honorarium for Insolvent Freedom Fighters15000016 Honorarium for Injured Freedom Fighters800014 Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Cash800000054 General Relief Activities500000265 Allowances for Distressed Cultural Personalities/Activists10000 Food Assistance in CTG-Hill Tracts Area714000 (Man Month) 14 Stipend for Disabled Students190009 Grants for the Schools of disabled120000 Cash for Work3810000 (Man Month) 16 Housing Support1000005 Agriculture Rehabilitation2500000546 Open Market Sales (OMS)13800000 (Man Month) 6 HIES (2010) and SSNP

39 39 ProgrammesBeneficiaries (Nationally) Beneficiaries in the HIES 2010 Vulnerable Group Development (VGD)883300010 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF)12222000 (Man Month)122 Test Relief (TR) Food3905000 (Man Month)132 Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Non-cash8000000 (Man Month)494 Food For Work (FFW)3810000 (Man Month)4 100 days Employment Scheme/ Employment Generation Programme for the Hardcore Poor 420000020 Stipend for Primary Students7800000599 School Feeding Programme3150006 Stipend for Dropout Students35000034 Stipend and Access Increase for Secondary and Higher Secondary Level Students (including Proposed Secondary Education Stipend Project) 3600000260 Maternal Health Voucher Allowance1800005 Rural Employment Opportunity for Public Asset 250002 Char Livelihood Programmes550009 Rural Employment and Rural Maintenance Programme 460005 Total (Beneficiary Households)---2989 HIES (2010) and SSNP

40 40 Status of poor HHS getting SSNP benefit (HIES 2010) Status of poor HHS getting SSNP benefit (HIES 2010)

41 Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. Beneficiaries included in the HIES-2010 No. of beneficiary not satisfying the criteria % of Error Inclusion Criteria (Essential) Age >65 years (Male)2769735.2 Age >62 years (Female)29210435.6 Annual income of Beneficiary <3000 Tk.55855599.5 Beneficiary from a Landless HH55810819.4 Beneficiary is Physically Infirm--- Beneficiary is handicapped--- Exclusion Criteria Beneficiary is a Government Service Holder--- Beneficiary is a Pension Recipient--- Beneficiary is a VGD Card Holder Women55800.0 Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP5586912.4 More than one beneficiary from the same Household 558101.8 Beneficiary is a Day laborer/Maidservant/Vagrant--- ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES Targeting Efficiency of Old Age Allowance 41 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Performance assessment using programme specific variables

42 Targeting Efficiency of Widow Allowance 42 Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. Beneficiaries included in the HIES-2010 No. of beneficiary not satisfying the criteria % of Error Inclusion Criteria (Essential) Female is a Widow/Husband’s Deserted/Distitute 2386025.2 Annual income <12,000 Tk 2387732.4 Exclusion Criteria Beneficiary is a Government Service Holder --- Beneficiary is a Pension Recipient --- Beneficiary is a VGD Card Holder Women 23800.0 Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP 238156.3 ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES Performance assessment using programme specific variables Performance assessment using programme specific variables

43 Targeting Efficiency of Targeting Efficiency of General Relief Activities 43 Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. Beneficiary household included in the HIES-2010 No. of beneficiary not satisfying the criteria % of Error Household Affected by Natural Disaster 26522584.9 Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) 26520376.6 Landless/Less than 10 decimal of land 26513350.2 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Performance assessment using programme specific variables

44 Targeting Efficiency of Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) 44 Targeting/Eligibility/Exclusion Criteria No. Beneficiary household included in the HIES-2010 No. of beneficiary not satisfying the criteria % of Error Inclusion Criteria (Essential) The recipient is a Day laborer122-- Landless/Having Less than 0.15 acres of land 1224536.9 Female Household head12210384.4 Household affected by Natural Calamity 12210787.7 Exclusion Criteria Multiple Beneficiary from same Household 12210.8 Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP 12264.9 ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES Performance assessment using programme specific variables Performance assessment using programme specific variables

45 Targeting Efficiency of Gratuitous Relief-Non-cash 45 Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. Beneficiary household included in the HIES-2010 No. of beneficiary not satisfying the criteria % of Error Household Affected by Natural Disaster 49443988.9 Annual income of Beneficiary <3000 Tk. 49449299.6 Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) 49434369.4 Landless/Have Less than 10 decimal of land 49422545.6 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Performance assessment using programme specific variables

46 Targeting Efficiency of Stipend for Secondary and Higher Secondary/ Female Student 46 Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. Beneficiary household included in the HIES-2010 No. of beneficiary not satisfying the criteria % of Error Total monthly Household income<2500 Taka 26024895.4 Landless/Owning less than.50 acres26011644.6 Household headed by person with disabilities or incapable to earn 260 HH Head is a Wage Laborer or Rickshaw Puller 260 ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES Performance assessment using programme specific variables Performance assessment using programme specific variables

47 Divisions % of beneficiary HHS below UPL % of beneficiary HHS below LPL Barisal43.626.4 Chittagong36.818.1 Dhaka41.824.4 Khulna42.921.1 Rajshahi31.918.5 Rangpur47.832.2 Sylhet33.125.8 Total40.523.4 (All SSNPs)40.524.0 Percentage distribution of the SSNP beneficiary HHs (except 2 stipend programmes) by poverty status in the CBN method, HIES 2010 47 Poverty and SSNP beneficiary HHs (except 2 stipend) Poverty and SSNP beneficiary HHs (except 2 stipend)

48 48 Cause of Not being Included in a Programme FrequencyPercent Cumulative Percent Beneficiary Recipients (individual)3,5086.3 Not Applicable (HH members age <5 years)5,63010.116.4 Did not know about the programme2,0453.720.1 Not eligible for the programme29,93953.974.0 Eligible for the programme but did not apply1,8533.377.3 Due to budget constraints1,7693.280.5 Selection was not proper9,97517.998.5 No programme in this area8611.5100 Total55,580100 Distribution of the reported reasons for not being included in major Public SSNPs Reported reasons for exclusion

49 49 No. of benefits received by HHs FrequencyPercent Cumulative Percent 12,55585.5 236612.297.7 3551.899.6 490.399.9 540.1100 Total Beneficiary HHs2,989100 Status of multiple beneficiary recipient Households in HIES 2010 Multiple beneficiary recipient

50 Key Research questions by Broad Scopes 50 Scope 1: Targeting of Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh 1.What are the main characteristics of the targeting process (targeting mechanism) of selected public safety net programmes (SSNP) in Bangladesh? 2. How effective is the targeting performance (outreach to the poorest) of the major public SSNPs? 3. What targeting mechanisms are adopted in the large NGO safety net programmes of the country? Scope 2: Inclusion and Exclusion Errors 1.Who are the excluded households from public SSNPs (in relation to poverty, location, gender and age of head, dependency ratio, and data permitting, food security and nutrition status)? 2. What are public SSNPs that the food-insecure households access? 3. What are the inclusion errors of public safety net programmes? 4. What are the factors accounting for errors in different regions, programs and targeting methodologies? The 12 month long research project will make efforts to answer the following research questions at the end of the study:

51 51 Scope 3: Addressing Errors 1. What are the challenges faced by major SSNPs to address inclusion and exclusion errors in Bangladesh and in the South Asia region? 2. What are the good practices in certain SSNPs that can be used to address inclusion and exclusion errors in Bangladesh and in the South Asia region for major safety net programmes? 3. What are complementarities between geographical, household-level and community-based targeting of SSNPs? 4. What potential roles can information technology play to improve targeting outcomes? 5. What roles can grievances and accountability measures play to improve targeting outcomes given existing administrative and political capacities? 6. What are the effective/successful mechanisms adopted by NGO programs that can be adjusted/scaled-up to government-run programmes? Key Research questions by Broad Scopes

52 52 Scope 4: Effective Targeting in Bangladesh 1.What are the options for improving the effectiveness of targeting, in particular decreasing exclusion errors, in Bangladesh? 2. What are the institutional issues of coordination between programmes at the local level and line ministries at the central level? 3. What is the relevance and feasibility of a nationwide targeting/identification system of SSNPs, with a potential road map? Key Research questions by Broad Scopes

53 Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey 53 Seri al ProgrammesProgramme Type Included/excluded in the proposed survey Reason for inclusion/exclusion 1Old Age Allowance Regular cash transfer included  Number of total beneficiaries is large  Lists of beneficiaries by Ward available at the UP Level  Waiting list is also available 2 Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women Regular cash transfer included  Number of total beneficiaries is large  list of beneficiaries available at the UP Level 3 Allowances for the Financially Insolvent Disabled Regular cash transfer Included but maybe dropped if sufficient sample not available at PSU level  Small programme but important because it benefits a particular vulnerable group 4 Maternity allowance programme for the Poor Lactating Mothers Fixed duration (2 years cycle) cash transfer Included but maybe dropped if sufficient sample not available at PSU level Number of beneficiaries is low, will require specific selection of respondent in the selection area (if beneficiaries exist), on average at least one beneficiary will exist in a village but this may not be the reality, not possible to select specific area for this kind of beneficiary 5 Honorarium for Insolvent Freedom Fighters Regular cash transfer excluded  Although number of total beneficiaries is moderate, they are not distributed equally in the PSU  Does not address poor people in general 6 Honorarium for Injured Freedom Fighters Regular cash transfer excluded  Small programme  Does not address poor people in general 7 Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Cash & Food Relief Activitiesincluded  Number of total beneficiaries is large  Easy to find with random selection at the field level 8General Relief ActivitiesRelief Activities Included but maybe dropped if beneficiaries cannot be identified during survey  Number of total beneficiaries is large

54 54 SlProgrammesProgramme Type Included/excluded in the proposed survey Reason for inclusion/exclusion 9 Allowances for Distressed Cultural Personalities/Activists Cash Transferexcluded  Number of total beneficiaries is very small  Will require purposive selection if list exist 10 Food Assistance in CTG- Hill Tracts Area Food Securityexcluded  Area Specific Programme  Random Selection of areas may prove to be a ‘not so good’ option  Will need specific sampling or selection of area 11 Stipend for Disabled Students Stipend (regular) Included but maybe dropped if sufficient sample not available at PSU level Number of Beneficiaries is small, may require purposive sample selection, random selection of respondents in the sampling area may exclude the beneficiaries within the selected area 12 Grants for the Schools of disabled Institutional grantexcluded Household interviewing may not be a option to collect information 13Food/Cash for WorkWorks Programmeincluded  Large programme  Easy to find with random selection at the field level,  List of beneficiaries exist 14Housing Support Relief Activities & Disaster Management excluded  Small programme  Beneficiaries are not distributed equally in the PSU  Area specific programme 15Agriculture RehabilitationSeasonalincluded  Large programme  Easy to find with random selection at the field level  But it does not include the poor/vulnerable people 16Open Market Sales (OMS) Food transfer at lower price excluded  Although OMS is a large programme, it has no fixed beneficiary  Identification of beneficiary is not possible during survey Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey

55 55 SlProgrammesProgramme Type Included/excluded in the proposed survey Reason for inclusion/exclusion 17 Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) Food Securityincluded  Number of total beneficiaries is large  Easy to find with random selection at the field level 18 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) Food Securityincluded  Number of total beneficiaries is large  Easy to find with random selection at the field level 19Test Relief (TR) FoodRelief Activitiesexcluded  Programme does not benefit individuals directly 20 100 days Employment Scheme/ Employment Generation Programme for the Hardcore Poor Works Programmeincluded  Number of total beneficiaries is large  Easy to find with random selection at the field level 21Stipend for Primary StudentsStipend (regular)included  Number of total beneficiaries is large  Easy to find with random selection at the field level 22School Feeding Programme Tiffin for school students excluded  Area specific programme  Will require purposive area selection  Poverty is not a selection criteria for the beneficiary (all the students in a school receive the benefit irrespective of poverty status) 23 Stipend for Dropout Students (may be considered for selection) Stipend (regular)excluded  Small programme; Number of beneficiaries is very smaller than other stipend programmes (primary and secondary level stipend programmes),  not possible to select specific area for this kind of beneficiary,  will require purposive section of beneficiary 24 Stipend and Access Increase for Secondary and Higher Secondary Level Students (including Proposed Secondary Education Stipend Project) Stipend (regular)included  Number of total beneficiaries is large  easy to find with random selection at the field level Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey

56 56 SlProgrammesProgramme Type Included/excluded in the proposed survey Reason for inclusion/exclusion 25 Maternal Health Voucher Allowance Single time benefit excluded  Very small programme  will require specific selection of respondent in the selection area (if beneficiaries exist), not possible to select specific area for this kind of beneficiary 26 Rural Employment Opportunity for Public Asset Works Programmeexcluded  Small and area specific programme 27Char LivelihoodSeasonalexcluded  Area Specific Programme  Random Selection of areas may prove to be a ‘not so good’ option, will need specific area sampling. 28 Rural Employment and Rural Maintenance Programme (RERMP) Works Programme Included but maybe dropped if sufficient sample not available at PSU level  Small programme but very much poverty focused Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey

57 Average duration of SSNP benefit receiving for major regular SSNPs Programme Name Average Duration (month) Average Duration (year) Old age allowance45.63.8 Allowance for Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women 44.63.7 Stipend for Secondary and Higher Secondary Level Students 25.42.1 Stipend for Primary Students252.1 Honorarium for Freedom Fighters*53.54.5 Allowances for the Financially Insolvent Disabled 44.63.7 * Aggregating the ‘Honorarium for Injured Freedom Fighters’ and ‘Honorarium for Insolvent Freedom Fighters’ together Note: The HIES 2010 survey ended in January 2011. These duration estimates are made as of January 2011. The HIES did not ask the households whether any member received SSNP benefit in the lifetime. It only focused the current situation. The proposed survey may consider this issue. 57

58 HH size and residence (rural-urban) HH Size NationalRuralUrban All size 24.430.314.0 1-2 26.633.612.9 3-4 20.627.310.2 5-6 28.132.918.8 7-8 28.632.819.6 9-10 20.324.512.7 11+ 22.725.017.1 58

59 Age of HH head & residence (rural-urban) Age of Head of HH NationalRuralUrban All Age 24.430.314.0 <=29 17.421.49.6 30-39 22.128.311.5 40-49 25.432.214.7 50-59 24.630.415.0 60+ 30.035.018.3 59

60 Gender, Marital Status, religion and residence (rural-urban) HH Characteristics HHs receiving SSNP (%) N=2989 NationalRuralUrban National24.430.314.0 Gender of Household Head Male24.330.313.8 Female25.330.214.9 Marital Status (of household Head) Married23.529.213.6 Unmarried27.334.314.6 Widowed/divorced33.039.818.0 Religion Muslim24.029.614.2 Non-Muslim27.234.812.2 60

61 Beneficiary HHs by land ownership and residence Size of Land Holding (acres) HHs receiving SSNP (%) N=2,989 NationalRuralUrban All size24.430.314.0 No Land17.933.19.7 <0.0519.226.511.9 0.05-0.4925.731.715.0 0.50-1.4929.731.818.8 1.50-2.4932.131.635.6 2.50-7.4929.229.825.0 7.50+20.620.720.0 61

62 62 Programme NameLandless 15 Decimals and Less (not landless) 15> Decimals but < 50 Decimals 50 Decimals and more N Stipend for Primary Students 4.149.518.727.6 630 Old age Allowance 6.759.217.416.7 568 Agriculture Rehabilitation 1.420.520.058.0 560 Gratuitous Relief 6.064.214.315.5 503 General Relief Activities 11.959.717.311.2 278 Stipend for Secondary Female Student 3.234.516.645.7 278 Widowed Allowance 8.060.116.815.1 238 VGF 12.259.410.617.9 123 Beneficiary HHs by land ownership categories

63 Chi-Square scores for categories of different demographic characteristics  It is evident that there is statistically significant difference in the safety net receiving in the urban and rural areas at 1% level of significance. The different household size is also significant at 1% level of significance for safety net receiving as well as the land ownership categories and age of the head of the household. However, there is no statistically significant difference in the safety net receiving by the sex of the household head at 5% level of significance which is also true for religious identity of the household.  It is also found that there is statistically significant difference in the poverty status (both UPL and LPL) in urban and rural areas at 1% level of significance. The different household size is also significant at 1% level of significance for poverty status (both UPL and LPL) as well as the land ownership categories and age of the head of the household. There is no statistically significant difference in the poverty status (for LPL) by the sex of the household head at 5% level of significance which is also true for religious identity of the household. 63

64 Demographic Characteristics Chi-Square Scores SSNP beneficiary status Poverty Status based on UPL Poverty Status based on LPL Urban-Rural405.982.4151.0 Household Size87.6415.6327.9 Land Ownership103.4316.1225.3 Age of HH Head83.6117.978.6 Sex of HH Head0.925.16.6 Marital Status of HH Head 50.56.310.9 Religious Status of HH 3. 390 3.75.7 64 Chi-Square scores for categories of different demographic characteristics

65 65 Programmes Literacy StatusN LiterateIlliterate Stipend for Primary Students 54.345.7 630 Old age Allowance 13.686.4 568 Agriculture Rehabilitation 44.155.9 560 Gratuitous Relief 28.671.4 503 General Relief Activities 33.166.9 278 Stipend for Secondary Female Student 99.60.4 278 Widowed Allowance 13.986.1 238 VGF 28.571.5 123 SSNP beneficiaries and their literacy status

66 66 Housing and Sanitation Condition of SSNP beneficiary HHs Material of WallF%Material of RoofF% Brick/cement36812.3 Concrete (brick/cement/rod) 973.2 C.I. Sheet/wood121040.5C.I. Sheet/wood250583.8 Mud brick62220.8Mud/tally/wood1123.7 Hemp/hay/bamboo76725.7Hemp/hay/bamboo2357.9 Other220.7Other401.3 Total2989100Total2989100 Latrine typeFrequencyPercent Sanitary34211.4 Pacca latrine (water seal)37712.6 Pacca latrine (pit)49016.4 Kacha latrine (perm)89429.9 Kacha latrine (temp)71924.1 Other1675.6 Total2989100

67 67 HH electrification status of SSNP beneficiaries Electricity & Cell Phone F% SSNP beneficiary HHs with electricity in their house116438.9 Beneficiary HHs have cell phone152551.1 N2989100.0 Nationally 55.26% of the HHs has electricity connections (Rural 42.49%, Urban 90.10%

68 Incidence of poverty (HCR) by CBN method by division (HIES 2010 and 2005) Poverty Line and Division 20102005 TotalRuralUrbanTotalRuralUrban Using the Upper Poverty Line National31.535.221.340.043.828.4 Barisal39.439.239.952.054.140.4 Chittagong26.231.011.834.036.027.8 Dhaka30.538.818.032.039.020.2 Khulna32.131.035.845.746.543.2 Rajshahi (Former)35.736.630.751.252.345.2 Rajshahi (New)29.830.029.0--- Rangpur46.247.237.0--- Sylhet28.130.515.033.836.118.6 68

69 Per Capita monthly expenditure of the poor by residence and divisions (Taka) Division Per Capita expenditure of the Poor Using Lower Poverty LineUsing Upper Poverty Line TotalRuralUrbanTotalRuralUrban 2010 National1064.91056.01133.41245.81200.01457.7 Barisal1044.71031.41119.91176.01140.91348.8 Chittagong1174.51169.81231.91381.81361.71540.6 Dhaka1071.31060.21174.81290.91192.61610.2 Khulna1018.1984.11124.31212.61170.01337.5 Rajshahi1041.11034.81074.31205.21186.81280.7 Rangpur1027.11019.71109.31150.21140.81247.8 Sylhet1049.41051.01013.21117.01102.61276.9 69

70 % distribution of beneficiary and non-beneficiary HHs by consumption expenditure deciles and residence (rural-urban) Expenditure Deciles SSN beneficiary households (%)Non-beneficiary households (%) NationalRuralUrbanNationalRuralUrban Lower 5% 8.89.65.93.85.01.9 Decile-1 15.016.68.88.410.94.8 Decile-2 12.412.711.19.210.87.0 Decile-3 11.212.08.39.611.07.6 Decile-4 11.611.810.79.510.87.6 Decile-5 11.411.510.79.610.48.3 Decile-6 10.510.99.39.810.58.9 Decile-7 9.19.28.910.310.010.7 Decile-8 7.76.910.710.810.111.7 Decile-9 6.55.211.411.18.814.6 Decile-10 4.73.310.111.76.818.8 Top 5% 1.91.15.06.03.210.0 Total/Deciles 100.0 N2,9892,3746159,2515,4663,785

71 % distribution of beneficiary HHs of major SSNPs by consumption expenditure deciles 71 Major Safety Net Programmes (HIES 2010) Household Income Deciles (HIES 2010) L5% D1D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9 D10 T5% Old Age Allowance 20.328.312.2 7.5 10.010.610.4 7.94.76.11.40.9 Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women 16.826.117.713.0 8.09.78.86.35.92.91.70.4 General Relief Activities 10.214.710.212.510.215.110.2 9.87.95.73.81.1 Agriculture Rehabilitation 1.86.87.79.7 11.4 12.112.310.6 11.7 9.28.63.5 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) 6.6 14.818.010.716.410.7 11.5 10.7 6.60.80.0 Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Non-cash 9.1 16.815.814.613.012.4 9.56.75.94.31.20.6 Stipend for Primary Students 2.27.9 15.212.214.510.910.510.4 8.76.03.81.7 Secondary and Higher Secondary Stipend 1.23.55.87.3 10.8 8.1 10.013.9 11.5 15.014.2 5.0 Only programmes with more than 100 beneficiary households in the HIES 2010 considered. 71

72 Estimating the Monthly benefit amount received by SSNP beneficiaries Beneficiaries of Safety Net Programmes with Regular Monthly Allowance (in taka) are assumed to receive the fixed amount every month. For the benefits that are given in kind, the money value is estimated. In order to convert the kind benefits to equivalent money value, the per kg value of kind (rice, wheat etc.) is estimated from HIES 2010 data. Benefit that are received once in a year, is divided by 12 to find out the average amount of benefit received in a month. 72


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