1. Methods for evaluating freshwater ecosystem services in support of decision making David Yates (RAP), Claudia Tebaldi (CGD), Kathleen Miller (ESIG), Susi Moser (ESIG) Other Collaborators: David Purkey, Natural Heritage Institute, Sacramento California Hector Galbraith, University of Colorado, Boulder Annette Huber-Lee, SEI/Tellus, MIT Boston Others.. (University of California Davis and Stanford University)

2. Climate & Climate Change Physical Hydrology Watershed Management Decisions: Sykes Reservoir FERC Relicensing Conjunctive Use System Operations Socio-Economics Decision-Makers CALFED State Assembly California Water Dept Others Ecosystem Services credibility Integrated Decision Support relevancy legitimacy

3. Water quantity Water quality Seasonality of flow Regulation Water for agriculture Domestic water Water for industry Water for nature Water for recreation Integrating framework placed in the context of a “Trade-off” landscape

4. Physical Hydrology and Water Management Seamlessly integrating watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management.

5. Ecosystem services Ecosystem Service Evaluation

6. Ecosystem components processes Goods and Services H 2 O Quantity Quality Seasonality Governance Ecosystem components processes Goods and Services H 2 O Quantity Quality Seasonality Governance Ecosystem services

7. Ecosystem services in the SFBW Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use

8. But what is needed are high resolution time series for the entire watershed Climate and climate change Bayesian model gives regional distributions of seasonal changes

9. The Inter-Disciplinary Framework Ecosystem Service Assessment Properties (ESAPs) Ecosystem Service Indicators/Params (ESIPs) Ecosystem Service Prioritization and Selection S t a k e h ol d e r P r o c e s s Scenario Development: Climate, Land, Pop ESIP/model estimate variance Water Resources Modeling Change in Eco Service Translation Functions (Models) ADAPTATIONADAPTATION

10. Stylized schematic of Sacramento (garnering credibility) Sacramento River Basin: 50+ watersheds Reservoirs Central Valley Groundwater Canals and Diversions Demands: Ag. & Urban Atm. Municipal and Industrial Reserves, Instream Regional Diversions

11. WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed

13. Calibration and Validation Model Evaluation (1961-1999): 1.Flows Along Mainstem and Tributaries 2.Reservoir Storage and Release 3.Trinity Diversion 4.Agricultural Water Demand 5.Groundwater Storage Trends 6.Yolo Bypass Flood Inundation 7.Sacramento River Water Temperature

14. Streamflow reproduction for select watershed

15. Reservoir Storage Reproduction FOLSOM Reservoir Old Operating Rule New Operating Rule

16. Probabilities of Climate Change Probabilities of change in Hydrological Variables Decisions on Adaptation Planning (e.g. new storage infrastructure) Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables flow “Joint” scenarios

17. Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables Probabilities of Climate Change Probabilities of change in Hydrological Variables Decisions on Adaptation Planning (e.g. new storage infrastructure) ? T P flow

18. What is the joint probability? CSIRO and CCC heavily weighted in determining the winter distributions Western North America Climate Scenarios

19. But not consistent- These same models are given less weight for the summer distributions Western North America Climate Scenarios

20. A stage along the way to getting at probabilities… Stylized Scenarios using K-nn WmDry WmDryT2 WtWnt WtWntT2 WtWntT4 VWtWntr VWtWntrT3 (Yates et al. 2002)

21. Stylized Sacramento Climate Scenarios

22. Assumed No Irrigation or Storage Irrigation w/ all Available Storage River Flow

23. Assumed No Irrigation or Storage Irrigation w/ all Available Storage Water Temperature threshold

24. 1.Refine Water Resources Model to able to address relevant issues FERC Re-licensing of the Yuba, American Bear Sykes Reservoir Analysis Others.. 2. Regional Scenarios Develop complete probabilistic approach w/ Bivariate Bayesian Model 3.Refine Ecosystem service evaluation by placing into an uncertainty construct 4.Legitimacy: Continue to engage relevant stakeholders in model development and application process, especially utility of probabilistic results! Plans for ‘05