1. Today: More tools for analysis, including Sustainable Development Week 6, October 5, 1998 Week 6, October 5, 1998 Dr. Vincent Duffy - IEEM http://www-ieem.ust.hk/dfaculty/duffy/111 email: vduffy@ust.hk SOSC 111 - Science Technology and Society

2. administrative n For those who did oral presentation, please leave a copy of your slides for me (sometime this week after the holidays) n note: Monday, 5th evening -holiday u this affects section 3 n as agreed in class, lecture for section 3 will be held at 12noon on Monday u 6people will go to either lecture 1 or lecture 3 u all others are expected to attend at 12 noon u venue 4480

3. First: Two more ‘tools for analysis’ u Path dependence u Technological momentum n then...a look at two old ‘tools’ in a new way u consider ‘complimentary technologies and ‘technological interdependence’ u consider...what is one problem related to ‘complimentary technologies’? n Finally, a discussion about sustainable development

4. Why do we have the arrangement of keys on the keyboard (for computers) that we have today? n QWERTY QWERTY UIOP[ ASDFG HJKL; ZXCVB NM,./ Why? KLMNO PQRST ABCDE VWX; FGHIJ YZ,./ AEIOU Y Why not?

5. picture of typewriter

6. Why do we have the keyboard we have today? n QWERTY keyboard for computers u People were already familiar with typing that way. u A product of technological decisions of the past n The technological decisions of today affect technological decisions of tomorrow n What do we call this? u Path Dependence u Q.1 What is an example of path dependence?

7. Technological momentum n Q.2. What is an example of technological momentum? n Many times we have the opportunity/choice to change technology, but we choose the same technology anyway. u Built into our biases or interests u eg. If diesel fuel company was a big sponsor for the community chest (sponsor for sporting events), we might not want to change to LPG because of interests (for reasons other than the technology or other than pollution) u can be money/political reasons

8. Another example u windows 98, do we have to choose it? F If we buy a new PC we do F because microsoft makes so many of the products (compatibility). Their large market share limits our choices to some extent. F You might not even take a free operating system if it is offered to you because of the chance it may not work the same with your MS-Word or Powerpoint F your choices related to internet browsers may become limited in the future for similar reasons of money/power/influence/bias rather than the effectiveness of the technology

9. F these seem a bit similar right? (technological momentum and path dependence, right? F what is the difference between path dependence and momentum? technological momentum - our choices are not due to technology, but due to other thingstechnological momentum - our choices are not due to technology, but due to other things path dependence - technology choice depends on other past technologies usedpath dependence - technology choice depends on other past technologies used

10. n...a look at two old ‘tools’ in a new way u consider ‘complimentary technologies and ‘technological interdependence’ u consider...what is one problem related to ‘complimentary technologies’?

11. Problems of complementary technologies (related to technological interdependence) v Technological Interdependence u Technologies depend on other technologies for their use.  example automobile –roads and bridges, traffic signals v Complementary technolgies u Technologies that can be used with each other but do not require one another u together they complement (enhance) the other 1

12. Questions of the Day v Previously: Can you give an example of complimentary technologies? u Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence) 3

13. insert figure of bridge here n See: article …bridge crash alert SCMP, March ‘97 n what happens if the bridge is collapsed due to a crash? n ….what would happen at the airport? 2

14. Questions of the Day v Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence) n if there was a problem with the Tsing Ma Bridge, there would be a slowdown of airtraffic, people would miss their flight, buses stuck on the bridge, etc. 3

15. Questions of the Day v Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence) n similarly…what if bus drivers went on strike and decided not to drive on day? MTR riders would suffer because they have come to depend on the bus. 3

16. Questions of the Day v Q.3 What is a one problem that can occur because of complemenary technologies? (related to technological interdependence) u How are these examples of problems with complimentary technologies related to technological interdependence? u Note: the bridge doesn’t need the airport to function and theairport doesn’t need the bridge u However, when the technologies are used to the extent that we rely (depend) on them in our daily routine, then the effects of a problem (with one complimentary technology) can be similar to that of technological interdependence 3

17. Economic growth: What is it? v Measured by Gross National Product – sum of all personal and governmentt expenditures on goods and services in a country, including the value of net exports. v What has come with it? –industrialization, and concentration of population in the cities, increased energy consumption and environmental side-effects v Why do we need it? v Are we just greedy and want more $ 5

18. insert population graph n recall? 6

19. Implications of population growth v In article –increase H.K. Population expected –more than 8 Million people by 2011 v Increased need for: –housing, roads, sewers and water mains –extended water and waste treatment –extensions to hospitals, fire stations –new schools,, libraries –shopping centers, karaoke v Environmental implications? 7

20. Environmental impact? n recall u acid rain u deforestation u air pollution in cities u london killer fog u fish in Patten Lake 8

21. Tradeoffs - with improvements come some problems as well v Recall…in meeting the basic needs of the growing population…. v Increased pesticides - –increased agriculture output –increased side effects to lakes, streams, etc. v Increased autos, trucks - –increased efficiency of transport of goods –increased air pollution, etc. 9

22. v HK…see article v ‘A grim outlook for our ecology’ v ‘potential loss of habitat and destruction of fragile ecosystems would be….considerable’ v Elsewhere…trouble too v attempt to get solutions: v United Nations meeting in 1992 in Rio de Janiero v focus on international policy to manage the environment What about Hong Kong? Elsewhere? 10

23. Question of the day n Q.4. Sustainable development. What is it?How can we measure it? 11

24. Sustainable Development: What is it? v term defined in 1987 by –World Commission for Economic Development v Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the future v or meet the needs of today without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs v How can we measure it? 12

25. Measuring Sustainable development v recall Economic Growth? u Measured by Gross National Product – sum of all personal and gov’t expenditures on goods and services in a country, including the value of net exports. n One way to measure Sustainable development u Gross environment improvement- u as a component of GNP that includes: F the costs of environmental improvments needed to restore the environment F such as reforestation, or pollution control measures F eg. Costs of IS0 14000

26. What does it mean for us as engineers? v Previously: –engineers, scientists & business u were held to principles of efficiency, productivity, profitability, and other economic criteria v now/future –Challenged to include concerns about: –health and environmental impacts, resource and energy consumption, conservation, waste management, unemployment 14

27. Exam n review next Wednesday October 7 n exam Friday October 9 n format multiple choice and short answer u a sample exam is on the www homepage n readings n See tutorial 9 for discussion of sustainable development & tutorial 7 momentum and path dependency n handout in class - ‘grim outlook for our ecology’, ‘bridge crash alert’ from SCMP and 1 page on sustainable development 16