1. Opportunities for practical Earth observation applications European Commission – Side Event GEO Plenary Foz do Iguaçu, November 22, 2012 Mark Noort, Faculty ITC, University of Twente

2. Europe: Global Monitoring of Environment & Security 2 Disaster typeDamage / year (1998 – 2009) Possible reduction by using Earth observation Flooding4 billion Euro10 % Storms3.7 billion Euro10 – 50 % Earthquakes2.4 billion Europositive, not quantified Extreme temperatures830 million Europositive, not quantified Forest fires576 million Europositive, not quantified Drought411 million Europositive, not quantified Source: ESPI – the socio-economic benefits of GMES

3. Why market Earth Observation? Analogy mathematics and earth observation: applications not originally intended 3

4. About the market: Different projections EO market: 900 million to 1.2 billion in 2009 to 5 billion euro in 2020??? Services: about 20% of total, defense and law biggest customers – government is main client Increases in scientific information do not automatically create information that is of economic value Private sector builds on public investment: analogy with (other) internet services Economic benefit as returns to an activity over and above its opportunity costs Focus on microeconomic approach and reducing uncertainty in decision making, environmental externalities, value-adding aspects 4

5. Suppose all these problems are solved: All public information freely available No security restrictions Sensors continuously operational Discovery, access, use, cost, coherence, frequency, quality and quantity of data settled for now and in the future Open source solutions widely available Legislative mandates settled Potential customers know about EO potential 5

6. Group on Earth Observations: coordinates efforts to build the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) GEOSS: free and low-cost data and information available to everybody, easily accessible and compatible for easy use (common infrastructure) 150+ countries and organizations are members Structured around tasks to accomplish strategic targets by 2015 Divided in Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs): Disasters, Health, Energy, Climate, Water, Weather, Ecosystems, Agriculture, Biodiversity 6

7. Marketing as Promotion & Capacity Building 7 With GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI) in place (2015), most images and datasets are easily accessible and freely available (or at low cost) “Non-space countries”: only investment in basic infrastructure and capacity building is needed OK, so at the general level there are benefits, but what happens at the local level?

8. 8 What “we” want: Funding for GEO / GEOSS activities What “they” want: Practical solutions for concrete problems How to avoid the “whatever” default reaction, even if people are interested: we have no clear view of the opportunities, there are so many options and it is not clear to us how the problem is solved (where are the buttons we can push? & how can we explain?) The road to funding of GEO / GEOSS goes through accepted practical applications of Earth observation

9. Overview Marketing of Earth Observation Products & Services (framework study) Regional Studies (Poland, Czech Republic, French- speaking Africa, Southern Africa) + Synthesis Capacity Building StrategySuccess Stories, Toolkits, Roadshow, Quick Win Projects, Workshops, Capacity Building Web 9

10. Target Groups 10 Decision makers Professionals Communities

11. Disaster management - categories Risk assessment / simulation models Forecasting / early warning Monitoring Damage assessment Prevention / planning General 11

12. (Natural) disaster types Volcanic eruptions Earthquakes Landslides Floods Tsunamis Droughts Fires, etc. 12

13. Use case 1: Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment Review of methodology Development of software tools Training needs assessment 13

14. RiskCity concept 14 Go through all steps of a risk assessment Urban area Multi-hazard Developing country Different approaches

15. Risk City presentation GIS based training package for multi hazard risk assessment for risk reduction & management. Article RiskCity: a training package on the use of GIS for urban multi-hazard risk assessment. www.itc.nlwww.itc.nl Cees van Westen 15

16. RiskCity methodology 16

17. Example: Flood modeling Naga City, Philippines 17

18. RiskCity exercises Introduction to data and software, Obtaining image data and image interpretation; Downloading Google Earth data and referencing Remote sensing Hazard assessment: Landslides, Earthquakes, Flooding, Technological Additional: coastal, tsunami, forest fire, drought, volcanic Elements at risk Assuming new data is available: start from Google Earth Assuming more data available (cadastral, census, DEM) Loss estimation Annual loss estimation using risk curves Qualitative loss estimation using matrices Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation Using indicators for social, physical, economical, environmental vulnerability and for capacity Annual loss estimation Cost benefit analysis Using risk information in spatial planning 18

19. CAPRA experiences Comprehensive, multidisciplinary technology: develop more in-depth training package Regional training courses Development of case studies Support of university networks Long-term capacity building needed 19

20. Use case 2: Fire early warning and monitoring South Africa 20 Online detection of fires and occurrences of fire per year

21. Advanced Fire Information System (AFIS) Primary sponsorship by ESKOM, power utility and electricity provider for South Africa Near-real time broadcasts from 15 minute interval satellite passes Detection of fires as small as 50m X 50m area Fire detection rate of about 65% of all fires in South Africa SMS alert notification to fire managers Supplies several warnings to fire protection associations in South Africa Expansion of service to SADC region countries 21

22. Use case 3: Community participation early warning – Mozambique & Philippines 22 Community meeting in Mozambique

23. Community vulnerability map, Mozambique 23

24. Elevated school in Maniquenique, Mozambique 24

25. Colored warning charts Philippines 25

26. 525 mm precipitation in 24 hrs ‘Juan’ 26

27. 2050: 292 mm in 3 days, 22 cm seal level rise, 16 % more rain 27

28. Community participation SMS warning messages to community leaders Training on flood and drought forecasting, early warning and monitoring at the central level Integrated land and water management plan Building techniques and other measures Substantial time and effort needed for participatory planning approach Local teams need to acquire skills Relative high cost in remote areas 28

29. Disaster Management (other examples) Floods in Poland and Czech Republic Sensor webs for land slides Taiwan Sensor webs for flood early warning Germany / Brazil Risk assessment coastal cities Northern Africa International Charter to make satellite images available for free after a disaster Drought (& ecological) monitoring OSS: circum- Saharan area 29

30. Decision making “We can only manage what we measure” Water cycle: water resources availability and quality for -Economic development -Green economy -Poverty reduction -Community empowerment -Risk management 30 WATER

31. Water Resources Management Categories of products and services Hydrologic information systems Soil moisture modeling Drought monitoring / early warning Monsoon monitoring / forecasting 31

32. Use case 4: capacity building in EO for water resources management in Africa Basic earth observation education, provided via distance learning Advanced short courses, focused on selected earth observation techniques Applied short courses, tailored to the research interest and technical background of the participants Research supervision, provided by earth observation specialists at 32

33. Number of participants in courses from 2006 - 2012 33

34. Distribution of research test areas among the TIGER projects 34

35. Steps for Earth observation supported water resource management 1.Land use and land cover mapping + change monitoring 2.Water abstraction estimate in respect of crop water demand estimates for irrigated areas 3.Refined land use / land cover mapping 4.Surface water bodies or water pools (location, extent, dynamics) 5.Digital elevation models and derived products 6.Estimates of basin-wide evapotranspiration and precipitation 7.Water and vegetation monitoring (entire aquifer) 8.Ground subsidence monitoring and its correlation with groundwater abstraction From: Application of satellite remote sensing to support water resources management in Africa: results from the TIGER initiative 35

36. Capacity building in earth observation for water resources management in Africa Increased capacity for research and problem- solving Promotion of integrated approach for water resources management Much more input needed to create real impact Address sustainability by making data and images available freely or at low-cost and create / maintain research infrastructure 36

37. Use case 5: Water resources assessment, Tibetan plateau 37 Source of some of the largest rivers of the world, but very little quantitative information on water balance and long-term trends

38. Evapotranspiration estimates from time-series of satellite images + in-situ measurements 38

39. Result: water & energy balance modeling as input for decision-making (climate change) 39

40. Water resources management: Tibetan Plateau Result: more insight in water and energy balance, also in remote areas Research cooperation European partners and China Combination earth observation and in-situ measurements Opportunity: well-informed decision-making on adaptation to climate change 40

41. Use case 6: community mapping for drinking water in East Africa 41 Communities map their access to drinking water…

42. and indicate the level of service… 42

43. which is further analyzed and used for decision- making 43

44. Google H2O: community mapping Result: more insight in actual water and sanitation situation in areas with difficult access (remote or unsafe) Supported by Google and UN-HABITAT Wide range of other applications possible Low-cost, training needed Opportunity: community empowerment 44

45. Water Resources Management (other examples) Improving parameters for curve-number method – Czech Republic Availability of global datasets – GRDC Water & energy balance information - GEWEX Drought monitoring Getting information to the farmer: e-Leaf, GEONETCast Index-based insurance for agriculture Wetland management - Poland 45

46. Conclusions & Recommendations: Benefit from public investment in space: only small investment in infrastructure and capacity building needed Benefit from GEOSS Common Infrastructure Focus on customer value propositions, strategic capitalism -> green economy Measure impact: qualitative, quantitative, monetary Dialogue between government, scientists and private sector 46

47. Thank you www.itc.nl www.geonetcab.eu Mark Noort: m.noort@itc.nlm.noort@itc.nl m.noort@hcpinternational.com 47