1. Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing Countries John Furlow US Agency for International Development Glen Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit Breckenridge 2012

2. What Is USAID?

3. USAID at a glance An independent federal agency under the general policy guidance of the US Secretary of State Operating in 100 countries with over 75 field offices $ billions invested annually in: Water and sanitation Agriculture Democracy & governance Economic growth & trade Environment Education & training Health Humanitarian assistance

4. USAID’s Climate Change Program Overall Goal: Assist countries as they develop in ways that reduce emissions while building resilience to climate change impacts Mitigation: Clean Energy: 23 countries, 11 Regions/Bureaus Reducing net GHG emissions by spurring the deployment of clean energy technologies. Priority areas: energy efficiency, low-carbon energy, clean transport, and energy sector reforms. Sustainable Landscapes: 14 Countries, 5 Regions/Bureaus Reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector (e.g., tropical forest destruction and degradation) and augmenting sequestration of carbon in landscapes, including building capacity to measure, report, and verify emissions reductions. Adaptation: 19 Countries, 12 Regions/Bureaus Building capacity in vulnerable countries and communities to prepare for, reduce, or cope with negative impacts of climate change; Designing resilience into development assistance.

5. Adaptation portfolio 2011 Africa: Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Mali Mozambique Rwanda Senegal Tanzania Uganda East Africa Regional Southern Africa Regional West Africa Regional Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Timor-Leste Vietnam Bangladesh India Maldives Nepal Regional Mission-Asia (RDM/A) Asia: Dominican Republic Guatemala Jamaica Peru Barbados and Eastern Caribbean South America Regional Latin America & Carib: 23 countries $139 million in total

6. Adapting to Climate Change Impacts in Developing Countries

7. Challenges to Adaptation in Developing Countries Underlying development challenges –Education –Governance –Health –Infrastructure Poor historical records Poor current weather data GCM uncertainty Poorly adapted to current conditions Numerous pressing needs

8. What Is Adaptation? IPCC: adaptation is “Adjustment in systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects...” –Process of examining and understanding vulnerabilities –Responding in some way to reduce vulnerability, build resilience

9. Why Adapt to Climate Change? Developing country economies concentrated in climate sensitive sectors ~70% of developing country populations derive income from agriculture Ethiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP, GDP

10. Weather, Climate, and Livelihoods

12. Alerts for East Africa Major crisis continues; response inadequate06/07/2011 Conditions worsen in Eastern Horn05/06/2011 Forecasts poor, crisis likely to worsen03/15/2011 Poor Oct-Dec rainfall likely in East Africa11/02/2010 Food security expected to deteriorate further12/30/2009 Poor start of kiremt season in Ethiopia08/13/2009 Forecast poor rains to deepen food insecurity10/23/2008 High and rising food prices continue08/12/2008 Food aid pipeline faces serious shortfalls06/23/2008 Forecasts suggest increased food insecurity03/31/2008

13. Making the Most of Adaptation Investment

14. Climate Stress in the Development Context Economic drivers / Social development objectives: Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing Inputs or essential conditions: Natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems, labor, safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness Stressors (climate, non-climate): Changes in rainfall, temperature, SLR, corruption, pollution Interventions: Information, capacity building, public awareness, freshwater management, coastal/marine management Program design Resilience improved

15. Understanding climate vulnerability 15 Vulnerability: determined by exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity Exposure: Is an asset out in the elements? –Flooding, drought, erosion, sedimentation –Agriculture is exposed, highly dependent on weather/climate Sensitivity: Does exposure matter? –Are crops suitable to a range of temperatures and precipitation profiles? Adaptive Capacity: Can you respond? –Ag sensitivity can be reduced with irrigation, drainage, crop selection –Crop and economic diversification can reduce damages –Insurance spreads risk

16. Stresses Vulnerability factors Exposure What Infrastruct. Populations Ecosystms Where Coastal zone Estuaries Adaptive capacity EWS Governance Multiple sources Skilled decision- makers Redundant systems Sensitivity Quality of infrastruct. Type of water source Housing Health status Potential impacts Response options Damaged infrastructure Lost productivity Illness Food insecurity Non Climate Poor infrastructure, maintenance Lack of regulation Pollution Climate Increasing temps Rainfall variability Seasonal weather forecasts Guidance and awareness Restore watersheds Redundant infrastructure Zoning, flexible land use Increase water storage Objective: Health, productivity, food Inputs : Infrastructure, water, ecosystems, management, information, climate, policy

17. Climate Service Partnership

18. Growing consensus that providing climate information can help decision making International Conference on Climate Services: NOAA, UK Met, German Climate Service, WMO, Global Framework for Climate Services, World Bank, USAID Principles: Tailored to decision needs Focus on key development sectors Open access to data USAID/West Africa: Climate Adaptation Support Service for regional development

19. Value Chain of Climate Information Identify User Needs Translate Information for users Deliver Information Apply Information for decision making Robust Decisions

20. IRI – IFRC Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.IFRC/.Forecasts/

21. 21 SERVIR: Tools to Assist Development

22. Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop 22 SERVIR: Disaster Response

23. Climate Mapper Tool

24. Climate Mapper Continued

25. Rural Radio: RANET

26. Applying Weather and Climate information: Index Insurance

27. Four main “buckets” for risk management Risk reduction Risk retention Risk transfer Post-disaster assistance 27 Frequent, less severe events Rare, very severe events

28. Losses Probability Risk reduction Insurance Aid/Relief Retained Irrigation Water use efficiency Drought resistant varieties Training on climate change Access to forecasts Reforestation Community monitoring systems Grain storage, seed banks

29. Managing Climate Risks: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods

30. Glacier Lake Hazards in Nepal Tourism: 50% of Nepal’s GDP Region accounts for 5% of arrivals Some Statistics on our expedition: 35 scientists, development practitioners, journalists ~25 porters and guides ~12 vertical miles walked ~75 linear miles walked 18 days on trail

31. Thank You jfurlow@usaid.gov http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate