1. National Emission Inventories Developments in South Africa: Current Status and Needs P. Gwaze South African Weather Service patience.gwaze@weathersa.co.za GloEmissions User Workshop, 26-27 Nov 2009, Frascati.

2. Outline Current state of ambient air quality Global emission inventory signatures over SA Current status of emission inventories/developments Regional and local initiatives Needs for dynamic inventory development for southern/South Africa Possible usage of inventory

3. State of ambient air quality – SoE, 2004 o Air quality: DECREASING in general, with high sulphur dioxide and particulate matter (PM10) levels. o Vehicle exhaust emissions: INCREASING, with various pollutants predicted to increase by up to 44% by 2011 (from 2002 levels) if emission controls are not in place. o Energy consumption: INCREASED by 23% since 1992, with corresponding increase in coal consumption. o Households with electricity: INCREASED, from 50% in 1996 to 66% in 2001. o Health problems due to air pollution: INCREASING at an estimated 20% over the next decade.

4. National air quality hot-spots

5. Anthropogenic sectorial contributions

6. NO 2 - SCIAMACHY From the Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Heidelberg, Germany Wenig et al., 2002

7. Regional/ intercontinental transportation Wenig et al., 2002

8. South African ‘emission’ trends Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, http://cdiac.ornl.gov South African National Traffic Information System (eNaTIS) http://www.enatis.com/

9. Lightning contribution to NOx? de Coning, SAWS http://www.nasa.gov

10. Improving air quality New air quality legislation (NEMAQA, 2004) Proactive air quality management planning by local authorities New air quality standards to be gazetted early 2010 Tier approach towards WHO 2005 Guidelines Sector-specific air quality controls Vehicle emissions

11. Global inventories Differences in emission fluxes & distributions over country EDGAR and POET giving the highest fluxes compared to than IPCC/RETRO Differences largest in biomass burning fluxes Also differences in locations and of temporal variation Anthropogenic emissions contribute to largest fluxes Misrepresentation due to changes in technology Regional initiative – APINA?

12. Annual NOx RETRO POETIPCC (NO) EDGAR

13. Meridional sum over South Africa: CO Anthropogenic Biomass burning

14. Contributions of emission categories Butler et al., 2008

15. New filtering techniques in SA power plants Eskom Annual Reports

16. Status: Emissions inventory over South Africa No national emission inventory for criteria pollutants National APPA large point sources from major industrial sectors Petrochemical, Paper & pulp Ferro-alloys, Aluminium smelting Power generation, Iron & steel ‘Priority’ areas Vaal Triangle Priority Area (focusing on large point sources) Highveld Priority Area inventory (pending) Department of Transport (GHG and pollutants) & Agriculture (GHG) Municipalities, Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town Inventories developed from research activities Access to data?? Reliability?? Incomplete?? Hence global inventories

17. Challenge tree: Current emission inventory status Only a few industries are required to report emissions The few industries required to report emissions report to different AELA Emissions are reported in different ways Only hard copy reports provided Emissions data is incomplete The national emissions profile is very difficult to assess Emission data is difficult to analyse Emissions data may be inaccurate National Emissions data is difficult to gather Impacts of significant new developments difficult to assess National air quality modelling almost impossible National sectoral emissions reductions campaigns difficult to justify P. Lukey, DEA

18. Objectives tree: Developing a new national inventory Significant industries are required to report emissions Significant industries required to report emissions report to centralised database Emissions are reported in standardised formats Electronic emission data reports provided Emissions data set is complete and up to date The national emissions profile is readily available to inform air quality management decisions Emission data is easy to analyse and compare Emissions data is accurate and comparable National Emissions data is readily available Impacts of significant new developments easy to assess National air quality modelling informs air quality management plans and decisions National sectoral emissions reductions campaigns easy to prioritise and justify P. Lukey, DEA

19. Needs for dynamic emissions inventory Development of a national emissions inventory Emissions inventory database South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS) on www.saaqis.org.za www.saaqis.org.za SAWS and Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) partnership currently AQ monitoring module only Phase II initiating in 2010 TOR under construction 3 year project (?), biogenic (?) Baseline/verification of coming national inventory Air quality modelling and forecasting Research in atmospheric dispersion modelling Ground – satellite observations disjuncture Future AQ forecasting

20. Needs for dynamic emissions inventory Regional trans-boundary pollution Understand recirculation of pollutants over the region – SAFARI 2000 Understand SA contribution to regional air quality

21. Conclusions Requirements as GloEmissions user Spatial coverage and resolution? Temporal resolution? Atmospheric constituents – IPCC pollutants, criteria pollutants of CO, NOX, SO2, NMVOCs, PM10, NH3, O3? SA needs dynamic regional (and local) emissions inventory Guide/inform the development of a national inventory Baseline/verification for the inventory Database module - SAAQIS Air Quality modelling purposes Policy purposes (?)

22. Thank you!

23. Baseline of the future national inventory Emissions inventory database Air quality forecasting Regional trans-boundary pollution