1. Research Week 2009‐2010 University of Mauritius A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh1

2. What and Why? Definitions… A carbon budget is a set amount of carbon that can be emitted in a given amount of time, either by the whole economy, or a pre-selected sub-population or set of activities The carbon footprint is a measure of the impact human activities have on the environment in terms of the amount of GHG’s produced, measured in tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh2

3. What and Why? Problem statement… As climate change becomes more and more a central issue in local, national, and international discussions, understanding the global carbon budget, and how it influences trends in global warming, will become increasingly crucial. Mauritius has undergone various structural changes as reflected by its land use characteristics and the various production and consumption patterns as more developments are ongoing and the need for transportation What, how and where in the local context, contributes to climate change through carbon emissions and removals. A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh3

4. Aims To show how Geographical Information System (GIS) and Geo-Statistics can provide methods to look at dispersion of air emissions and its receptors that are human beings and the environment, particularly the vegetations that act as sinks. Develop GIS systems and Models to estimate the carbon emissions and removals within the different land use categories of Mauritius Explore possibilities to mitigate climate change processes through simulated projects involving avoided emissions or natural carbon sequestrations A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh4

5. Specific objectives Understand the processes responsible for adding carbon (sources) to the atmosphere and for removing it (sinks) Study of Land Use patterns Map the sources and sinks of GHG’s Develop the appropriate method to calculate the emissions and removals of GHG’s at the level of ground details such as roads, rivers built-up areas, forestry and agriculture Develop models A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh5

6. Coverage of Research Carbon budget should cover all Mauritian greenhouse gas, BUT mainly carbon dioxide, emissions/removals within the mainland Carbon footprint should depict ‘responsibility’ of various geographic areas (land categories) as well as socio-economic sectors, by indicating respective emission/removal rates of carbon A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh6

7. The Carbon Cycle A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh7 Source: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science, 2007

8. Literature Survey Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report 2007 Understanding the Global Carbon Budget, Richard Houghton, Senior Scientist, Carbon Research, 2007 National Air Emission Inventory (NAEI) – UK, 2008 Carbo Euro GHG Project 2003 New Zealand Carbon Budget Project 2005

9. Mind Map A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh9

10. Materials and Methods The use of extrapolation methods such as krigging in geostatistics has been applied to generate contour maps of pollution levels. Application of GIS to study land use patterns in Mauritius Sampling techniques and surveys to collect geographical, household, business and scientific data to estimate both the ‘direct’ and ‘embedded’ carbon emission attributable to household and business consumptions; IPCC based methods will be used in calculations. Other approaches include on line calculators A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh10

11. Methods The calculations are based on the following equation: = Σ ij ij E A F, where E: Emission of pollutant; A ij : Activity statistic, i.e. amount of fuel burnt; F ij : emission factor, i.e. emission per unit of fuel burnt, i: fuel type and j: fuel combustion plant or site. A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh11

12. Methods Let i i i i X X X 1 2 3 4,, denote the average of the amount of emissions for, SO2, CO, and NOx over the seven period respectively for the ith sample point (13 locations with no missing values) over the island which is standardised standardise as follows A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh12 For each set of standardised data, we develop layers in the form of indices, ji A combined layer is then developed for the ith location, using the index, i I,

13. GIS A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh13 Source:InWent, Germany

14. Data sources Household and Business surveys, micro-data – Available for researchers, upon request from Central Statistics Office CEB – fuel used for electricity generation AREU/Min.of Housing/MSIRI: Land use patterns Forestry Satellite Data Others A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh14

15. Satellite Image Landsat satellite image of Mauritius, 2000 (Source: Global Land Cover Facility) A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh15

16. Outcomes Visual display of sites or regions where air pollutants are destined and where monitoring programs need to be improved. GIS maps of regional carbon budget and carbon footprint A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh16

17. Land Use Patterns Source: Prof SDDV Rughooputh A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh17

18. CO 2 Emissions Trend, Mauritius, 1970 – 2006 (Data Source: J.Baguant, Energy Data Book 1988) A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh18

19. CO 2 emissions by sector, Mauritius, 2000 – 2006, Source: Central Statistics Office A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh19

20. Some Results Map for CO 2 Emissions A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh20

21. Map for SO 2 Emissions A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh21

22. Map for CO Emissions A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh22

23. Map for Combined Emissions UsingComposite Index A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh23

24. On-Going and Future works Road traffic emissions Statistical modelling and Spatio-temporal modelling Processing of Satellite data Development of Carbon budget Models Development of carbon offset strategies for scenario analysis that will complement policy related work; Development of a robust understanding of the links between lifestyles, societal values and the environment. A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh24

25. Acknowlegement TEC Sponsored MPhil/PhD Research @ UoM Central Statistics Office CEB – fuel used for electricity generation A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh25

26. Contacts A. Sookun 1 : asookun@gmail.com asookun@gmail.com R. Boojhawon 1 : r.boojhawon@uom.ac.mu r.boojhawon@uom.ac.mu SDDV Rughooputh 2 : sdr@uom.ac.mu sdr@uom.ac.mu 1 Department of Mathematics 2 Department of Physics Faculty of Science University of Mauritius A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh26