Presentation on theme: "The water-food-energy nexus from an energy system modelling perspective Paul Dodds."— Presentation transcript:
The water-food-energy nexus from an energy system modelling perspective Paul Dodds
Introduction Who we are and what we do Energy system models Initial thoughts on the water-food-energy nexus Our interests in this research area
Who we are and what we do UCL Energy Institute (energy systems, buildings, transport) UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources (food, bioenergy, water, mineral and petrochemical resources, and waste, from environmental, economic and policy perspectives) Energy systems: –UK MARKAL energy systems model, which underpins UK government decarbonisation strategies. –TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) is a global energy systems model with a climate component and a UK region Policy work
MARKAL modelling for UK policy EWP 03 CAT Strategy Energy Review EWP 07 CC Bill 2000 STND MACROMED UKERC, Research council projects, UK-Japan LCS, Ofgem, NGOs etc UK Government UK Government, CCC Model type Funding Rapid simple structured model development to inform EWP 03 CCS enhancement for CAT strategy Major 2 year UKERC programme; enhanced UK model with MACRO extension MED model development with major CCC and UKERC scenarios 2010 2007 LCTP Stochastic MED model, Global TIMES model (UKERC) TIAM-UCL, Stochastic CCC 1 st report CCC & DECC analysis
MARKAL- MACRO/ED AVAILABILITY/CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGIES GDP & CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS MINING LIMITS & TRADE (including IET) ECONOMY AND SOCIETY RESOURCES AND TRADE ENERGY SERVICES DEMANDS ENVIRONMENT ENERGY AND ECONOMY ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITS Assessing Energy, Economy, Engineering & Environment (E4) Interactions 5
Characterisation of MARKAL/TIMES Linear Partial equilibrium Perfect foresight Bottom-up Energy-economic-environment-engineering Cost-optimisation Energy flows, environmental constraints, economic and policy focus
Energy Modelling typology 8 Bottom-up Top-down Simulation Optimisation Econometric Computable general equilibrium Macro- econometric Hybrid Models Integrated Assessment Models Climate Always a trade-off in model type, focus and implementation Growth models Behaviour
Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus Self sufficiency How will climate change and population growth affect domestic and agricultural supplies? New investment? How will food production change in the future? Long- term trends and short-term variability Will the UK become dependent on foreign energy supplies? How will climate variability affect future production? Water Food Energy Security Will the price of water increase to an unsustainable level for part of the population? How will local production and world food price trends and fluctuations affect the price of food for the UK population? How will local production and world energy price trends and fluctuations affect the price of energy for the UK population?
Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus How can the UK government mitigate the impact of global water, food and energy shortages in the long term? How could the impact of water, food and energy insecurities in other countries affect the UK? –Public disorder –Cross-border conflicts over resources –Mass migration Are there economic opportunities for the UK caused by water, food and energy insecurities abroad?
Water-food-energy interactions Are there currently strong links between water, food and energy in the UK? Could there be strong links in the future? –e.g. land uses for crops or bioenergy – with a high CO 2 price, producing biomass could be much more lucrative for UK farmers than producing food in the future (McDowall et al. 2012). Should we consider short-term phenomena (e.g. interrupted electricity supplies due to flooding)?