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Challenge Bibendum 2010 Guest Forum The Marketplace for E-Mobility Rio de Janeiro, June 2, 2010
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 2 Global Drivers for Future Mobility Solutions Economy/Per Capita Income Population Wealth Distribution Oil Prices World CO 2 Regulations Values IT/Technology Use
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 3 Mobility has Traditionally Been Measured by the Level of Motorization. Motorization is Primarily a Function of Wealth Mature markets Very wealthy Established industry Motorization rate leveling off Growth markets Wealth is building Growing local industry Rate of motorization is increasing rapidly as a function of wealth Emerging markets Breaking the $5,000 per capita threshold Indigenous industry just beginning to emerge Motorization will increase rapidly
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 4 If our current model of mobility is maintained, there will be demand for the equivalent of three billion vehicles on the roads of the world by 2035 Imagine what this world will be like, considering the mobility challenges we face today when there are only 800 million vehicles in-use globally Clearly, this model of mobility can not be maintained. The scenarios will explore different pathways for the evolution of motorization 1) Gott, Philip; Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable? International Automotive Mobility Forum, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland …It is Only the Day After Tomorrow! Just Imagine! 2030 is Only One Platform Cycle Away
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 5 World Economic Growth is Far From Certain 5
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 6 Population Trends are More Predictable: An Aging Consumer Living More and More in Urban Areas… Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, United Nations Economic and Social Affairs, 2007 World Population Trends to 2050 Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision The Share of Population Over 65 Years Is Growing Urban Areas Today
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 7 … With a Rising Old Age Dependency Ratio Sources: US Census, UN Population Prospects Note: Ratio is calculated by dividing population aged 65 years and older by population aged 15–64. 7 W. Europe
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 8 … And Increasingly “Eco-aware” Future indications point towards more ‘awareness’ with the consumer, potentially resulting in pressure for mobility providers to offer more eco-acceptable transport solutions The ‘Eco Sensor’ Concept from Finnish cell phone maker Nokia features a sensor that measures CO, CO2, particulate matter, and ground- level ozone. Real-time consumption measurement Source: Nokia
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 9 Locally Determined Drivers for Future Global Mobility Solutions Market Dependant Mobility Solution Drivers Energy Attitudes (Resource Conservation) Mobility Regulations Lifestyle Free-Time LD Infrastructures Local Infrastructures Technology and Safety
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 10 Megacity >10 million population 19 in in 2025 Lifestyle Is A Function Of Where People Live Urban Includes suburban areas >400 people/km 2 Rural Source: Courtesy of, Alexander Augst
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 11 Planning for Mobility in the Future: Disruptive Business As Expected Cornutopia Markets Mature Growth Emerging Economic, Regulatory & Energy Environment Cornutopia As Expected Disruptive Lifestyle Mega Cities Urban Rural Possible Future Business Environments Social Consciousness Energy Costs Demographics Per Capita Income Natural Resources Available Economic Well-Being Politics Social Stability Use of Information Technologies
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 12 What’s The Outcome? Global Drivers Business As Expected / Cornutopia / Disruptive Economy/GDP Wealth Distri Co Technology Population Energy Price Values Likely A Little Bit Of Each Scenario Across The Globe
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 13 Today’s Conventional Wisdoms Are Challenged We currently purchase vehicles that are excessive for their most frequent missions Downsizing with greater flexibility for vehicle functionality is needed The Car of the Future will be more tuned to its intended use/mission profile As long as the user is assured access to more versatile vehicles when needed More people will accept a truly small car (Nano, Fiat 500, Smart and smaller) as long as access to more versatile vehicles can be assured when they are needed Accident prevention is essential Emotions will play a less important role in the purchase decision The more urbanized an area, the less emotions are tied to ownership Emotions are independent of car size Shared fleets will be purchased based on a balance of business criteria and emotional appeal to car share members/users
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 14 The Role of the Car Will Be Altered! Forces Driving Change Include Aging population Vehicle usage rethink Vehicle design/powertrain rethink Do I need to ‘own’ the vehicle? Virtual mobility A need for “Integrated Mobility Services” to cover various phases of travel seamlessly Car sharing meets the “integrated mobility” needs very well. It will be encouraged How will this be provided?
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 15 Implications The Urban Car of the Future will be: Largely used in urban areas for relatively short trips Managed by car-sharing fleets Fueled by a diversity of energy forms Compatible with dense traffic conditions and a potentially compromised driver Source: Ford Motor Co Source: MIT
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 16 Mobility Will Mean Far More Than Access to a Car Mobility has always been an extension of humankinds boundaries Physical mobility has always been paramount, and will remain a strong component of mobility Personal Shared Collective It will be joined by other forms of mobility Motorization Compared to Internet Density vs. Income Motorization e-mobility Per 1000 People Source: iphone.wareseeker.com Source: Internet World Stats
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 17 “Business-as-usual” is the least-likely scenario! To sum it up, while the Car of the Future is likely to be predominantly smaller, right-sized and electric and fleet-owned to facilitate sharing, the future car is to play a much less important role in the lifestyle of tomorrow's city-dweller. The change in ownership, size and energy source will help mitigate the impact of each vehicle on its physical surroundings; the sheer reduction in its use will be the most effective way to ensure that the mobility provided is sustainable. Source: Toyota Source: General Motors Source: PSA
Thank you! Phil Gott, Managing Director Automotive Science and Technology IHS Automotive Consulting
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