1. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos STEPs STEPs Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research WP2: Transportation trends and energy implications Prof. Konstantinos G. Zografos Athens University of Economics and Business TRANsportation Systems and Logistics Laboratory (TRANSLOG) e-mail: translog@aueb.gr STEPs meeting, Leuven, 18/05/2006

2. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos CONTENTS OF PRESENTATION - Objectives - Analysis framework - Freight transport energy use - Passenger transport energy use - Concluding remarks

3. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos OBJECTIVES OF PRESENTATION -To identify the relationship between freight/passenger transport and energy, taking into account the evolution of the political, socio- economic and technological environment. -To identify indicators measuring the impacts of the identified trends on freight and passenger transport energy use.

4. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK SCM / LOGISTICS TRENDS SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS MOBILITY TRENDS FREIGHT TRANSPORT UTILIZATION ENERGY EFFICIENCY PASSENGER TRANSPORT UTILIZATION POLITICAL DRIVERS SOCIO- ECONOMIC DRIVERS TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS ENERGY SUPPLY ENERGY AVAILABILITY ENERGY USE

5. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos Type of movement / geographical scale Transport mode Type of system Freight transport Passenger transport ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

6. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE

7. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos SCM Trends Drivers SCPSCIWGSDVDPOSDDNDDRLDBBTS Fiscal policy Transport policy Environmental policy Energy policy Land use policy Regional development policy Globalization Level of economic activity / income E-commerce Communication and information technologies SCP: Spatial Concentration of Production, SCI: Spatial Concentration of Inventory, WGSD: Wider Geographical Sourcing and Distribution, VDP: Vertical Disintegration of Production, OS: Outsourcing, DD: Direct Deliveries, ND: Nominated Day Deliveries, RL: Reverse Logistics, DBBTS: Development of Break-Bulk/Transhipment Systems PEST DRIVERS VS. SCM TRENDS FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORT

8. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos Effects on Freight Transport SCM Trends Number of trips Length of trips Speed of trips Frequency of trips Vehicle utilization Spatial Concentration of Production Spatial Concentration of Inventory Wider Geographical Sourcing and Distribution Vertical Disintegration of Production Outsourcing Direct Deliveries Nominated Day Deliveries Reverse Logistics Development of Break- Bulk/Transhipment Systems SCM TRENDS VS. EFFECTS ON FREIGHT TRANSPORT UTILIZATION

9. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos PEST DRIVERS, SCM TRENDS, FREIGHT TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION AND ENERGY USE INDICATORS

10. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR - Major drivers of the broader environment affecting the freight transport sector are: Globalization / market deregulation Technological progress Growing affluence. - The abovementioned prevalent driving forces are further supported by: Policy changes (fiscal, transport, environmental, energy use, land use and regional development) Growing economies of scale Mass customization - These drivers contribute to an ever-increasing intensity of freight transportation.

11. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos - The provision and use of freight transportation services demonstrates the following characteristics: Use of more energy efficient freight transportation vehicles Improvement in vehicle utilization, higher load factors and reduction of empty runs Increase of the use of intermodal freight transportation CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR

12. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos - Scenarios should consider the following trends: Increasing demand for freight transport services Increasing fuel efficiency for freight transport vehicles, Increasing efficiency in the use of freight transport vehicles, Increasing intermodality, leading to different modal split. CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR

13. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos - Trends affect five characteristics of the utilization of the freight transport system: Number of trips Length of trips Frequency of trips Vehicle utilization Speed of trips CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR

14. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos - Modelling of energy use in freight transport should consider the following indicators: Freight transport demand (ton-km/capita, veh-km/capita) Freight transport modal split Average length of haul Load factor Handling factor Freight transport vehicle fuel consumption CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR

15. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE

16. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos Mobility Trends Drivers Increase in mobility Virtual mobility Time and space compression Decrease in public transport use Increase in private car use Fiscal policy Transport policy Environmental policy Energy policy Land use and spatial development policy Globalization of the economy E-commerce Level of economic activity / income Population demographics Car ownership Market penetration of alternative vehicle technologies Market barriers for alternative vehicle technologies Social life-styles Traffic management technologies Communication and information technologies Energy efficiency (average fuel consumption) Fuel supply infrastructure Fleet composition PEST DRIVERS VS. MOBILITY TRENDS FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT

17. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos Effects on passenger transport Mobility trends Number of trips Distances travelled Speed of trips Frequency of trips Vehicle utilisation Increase in mobility Virtual mobility Time and space compression Decrease in public transport use Increase in private car use MOBILITY TRENDS VS. EFFECTS OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT UTILIZATION

18. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos PEST ENVIRONMENT, MOBILITY TRENDS, PASSENGER TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION AND ENERGY USE INDICATORS

19. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR - Major drivers of the broader environment affecting the passenger transport sector are: Growth in affluence Globalisation, European integration and market deregulation Growing economies of scale Declining residential densities A trend for increased mobility (in terms of the number and length of trips), coupled with a trend for faster and more flexible realization of mobility needs and an increase in the use of private automobiles, will continue to be observed.

20. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR - The provision and use of passenger transport services demonstrates the following characteristics: Use of more energy efficient private automobiles, Increase in the more efficient use of private automobiles through more effective traffic management, Use of innovative demand management policies and measures, Substitution of travel by communication services, Efforts to redirect trips from road and air to environment-friendly public transport.

21. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos - Scenarios should consider the following trends: : Increasing demand for passenger transport services, Increasing fuel efficiency of private automobiles, More efficient use of automobiles, Introduction of policies and concepts for more efficient travel demand management. CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR

22. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos - Mobility trends affect the following characteristics of the passenger transport system utilization: Number of trips produced Distances travelled Frequency of trips Speed of trips Vehicle utilization Choice of fuels CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR

23. ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG) © Prof. K. Zografos - Modelling of energy use in passenger transport should consider the following indicators: Passenger transport system demand (pax-km) Modal split per transport mode (pax-km/mode) Vehicle occupancy rate Average length of trips Passenger car fuel consumption CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR