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Forests, Agriculture, and Climate: Economics and Policy Issues Figures and Tables By Jonathan M. Harris and Maliheh Birjandi Feriz Copyright © 2011 Jonathan.

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Presentation on theme: "Forests, Agriculture, and Climate: Economics and Policy Issues Figures and Tables By Jonathan M. Harris and Maliheh Birjandi Feriz Copyright © 2011 Jonathan."— Presentation transcript:

1 Forests, Agriculture, and Climate: Economics and Policy Issues Figures and Tables By Jonathan M. Harris and Maliheh Birjandi Feriz Copyright © 2011 Jonathan M. Harris

2 Figure 1. Forestry and Agriculture as a Percent of Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: Figure adapted from UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC 2007

3 Figure 2. Sources and Flows of Greenhouse Gases Figure source: World Resource Institute (WRI), can be accessed at

4 Figure 3. Designated Functions of Forests, 2010 Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment, by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO 2010

5 Figure 4. Forests as Carbon Stocks and Carbon Fluxes Source: CIFOR, World Agroforestry Centre and USAID 2009 Forest and climate change toolbox [PowerPoint presentation]. Available fromhttp://www.cifor.cgiar.org/fctoolbox/.http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/fctoolbox/

6 Figure 5a. Annual Net Flux of Carbon to the Atmosphere from Land Use Change, South America, Africa, and Asia: Source: Houghton, R. A “Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land-use changes: ”. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Data are accessible at

7 Figure 5b. Annual Net Flux of Carbon to the Atmosphere from Land Use Change, Europe, China, Former USSR, and USA: Houghton, R. A “Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land-use changes: ”. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Data are accessible at

8 Social and Ecological Functions of Forests Source: Costanza, R., et. Al., 1997, “The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital” Nature 387.

9 Figure 6. Top Countries with the Largest Forest Area Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment, by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO 2010

10 Figure 7. The World's Forest Coverage Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment, by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO 2010

11 Figure 8. Annual Change in Forest Area by Region, Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment, by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO 2010

12 Figure 9. Annual Change in Forest Area by Country, Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment, by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO 2010

13 Figure 10. Causes of Forest Decline Causes of Forest Decline Direct Underlying Market Failure Unpriced forest goods and services Monopolies and Monopsonistic forces Mistaken Policy Interventions Wrong incentives Regulatory mechanisms Government investment Governance Weaknesses Concentration of land ownership Weak or non-existing land ownership and land tenure arrangements Illegal activities and corruption Broader Socio-economic and political causes Population growth and density Economic growth Distribution of economic and political power Excessive consumption Toxification Global warming War… Market Failure Unpriced forest goods and services Monopolies and Monopsonistic forces Mistaken Policy Interventions Wrong incentives Regulatory mechanisms Government investment Governance Weaknesses Concentration of land ownership Weak or non-existing land ownership and land tenure arrangements Illegal activities and corruption Broader Socio-economic and political causes Population growth and density Economic growth Distribution of economic and political power Excessive consumption Toxification Global warming War… Natural Causes Hurricanes Natural fires Pests Flood Natural Causes Hurricanes Natural fires Pests Flood Resulting from human activity Agricultural expansion Cattle ranching Logging Mining and oil extraction Construction of dams Roads … Resulting from human activity Agricultural expansion Cattle ranching Logging Mining and oil extraction Construction of dams Roads … Agents Slash and burn farmers Agribusiness Cattle ranchers Miners Oil corporations Loggers Non timber commercial corporations Agents Slash and burn farmers Agribusiness Cattle ranchers Miners Oil corporations Loggers Non timber commercial corporations Source: Contreras- Hermosilla, A The underlying causes of forest decline, Citeseer

14 Figure 11. Regional Breakdown of Drivers of Deforestation Source: Project Catalyst 2009 Towards the inclusion of forest-based mitigation in a global climate agreement (Working Draft), accessible at: catalyst.info/Publications/Working%20Group%20papers/Towards%20the%20inclusion%20of%20forest- based%20mitigation%20in%20a%20global%20climate%20agreement%2014%20May%2009..pdf catalyst.info/Publications/Working%20Group%20papers/Towards%20the%20inclusion%20of%20forest- based%20mitigation%20in%20a%20global%20climate%20agreement%2014%20May%2009..pdf

15 Graph Source: Rhett A. Butler / mongabay.com,

16 Figure 12. Annual REDD Economic Mitigation Potential, 2030 Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, Accessible at

17 Table 1: Potential for Carbon Emissions Reduction in Forested Lands Economic potential in 2040 (MtCO 2 /yr) low Economic potential in 2040 (MtCO 2 /yr) high Fraction of total (technical) potential in cost class <20 US$/tCO 2 North America Europe Russian Federation Africa OECD Pacific Caribbean, Central and South America Non Annex I East Asia Non Annex I South Asia Total 1,9755,455 Source: Metz et al. 2007a, available at

18 Current carbon stocks for the Pan-Amazon and Brazilian Amazon (left bar); estimates of cumulative emission by 2050 under BAU (business-as-usual) and governance scenarios. Sources: Sathaye et al. 2006, Soares-Filho et al. 2006, and IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, accessible at

19 Figure 13. REDD supply curve Quantity [MMtCO2/Year] Price [$/tCO2] Source: Adapted from Estimating the Costs of Reducing Forest Emissions by Wertz-Kanounnikoff, 2008

20  100  90  80  70  60  50  40  30  20  10  100  90  80  70  60  50  40  30  20  10 Figure 14. Supply curves from global models Emission reduction from AD [Mt CO2/yr] Carbon Price [$ /tCO2] Emission reduction from AD [Mt CO2/yr] Carbon Price [$ /tCO2] Supply curves in 2010 REDD cost: $20/tCO2 can abate on average 3000 Mt CO2/Yr Supply curves in 2030 REDD becomes more expensive: $20/tCO2 can abate on average 2200 Mt CO2/Yr Source: Adapted from Kindermann et al and Wertz- Kanounnikoff 2008

21 Figure 15. Illustration of Baseline Credit System Historical level carried forward Baseline Actual Credits awarded on the basis of difference between baseline and actual Time Forest Emissions Source: Adapted from Eliasch Review, 2008

22 Figure 16. Market Phenomenon Causing Leakage P1 P0 (a)Country A supply: Reduces deforestation and commodity supply (b) Country B supply: Increases deforestation and commodity supply (c) Global market: Net effect of country A and B responses Quantity of timber Price Internal response External response Net supply response Withdrawal Murray, B. C Leakage from an avoided deforestation compensation policy: Concepts, empirical evidence, and corrective policy options. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University, Durham, NC

23 Gain-loss approach vs. Stock-difference approach Land use type Disturbance Harvest C Uptake via growth Carbon stock in year 1 Carbon stock in year 2 1. Stock- difference approach 2. Gain- loss approach Source: Adapted from Wertz-Kanounnikoff et al. 2008

24 Figure 17. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture Source: World Resource Institute (WRI), accessed 2011

25 Figure 18. Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Region Projected to 2020: Developed Nations GHG emissions in Agriculture (Mt CO2eq./yr) Source: Smith et al. 2007, Note: ME&NA: Middle East and North Africa; SS Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa; S. Asia: developing countries of South Asia; LA&C: Latin America and The Caribbean; E Asia: developing countries of East Asia; OECD Pac: OECD countries of the Pacific Region; C&E Eur: Central and Eastern Europe; FSU: Former Soviet Union; W Eur: Western Europe; OECD NA, OECD countries of North America

26 Figure 18. Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Region, Projected to 2020: Developing Nations GHG emissions in Agriculture (Mt CO2eq./yr) Source: Smith et al. 2007, Note: ME&NA: Middle East and North Africa; SS Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa; S. Asia: developing countries of South Asia; LA&C: Latin America and The Caribbean; E Asia: developing countries of East Asia; OECD Pac: OECD countries of the Pacific Region; C&E Eur: Central and Eastern Europe; FSU: Former Soviet Union; W Eur: Western Europe; OECD NA, OECD countries of North America

27 Figure 19. Global GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture Source: Adapted from Metz et al. 2007a and Smith et al. 2008, available at

28 Figure 20: Global Mitigation Potential from Agriculture by CO2 price Source: Adapted from (Metz et al. 2007a) and (Smith et al. 2008), available at

29 Figure 21: Global Biofuel Production Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2008, Biofuels: the promise and the risks, available at /Brief_BiofuelPrmsRisk_web.pdf /Brief_BiofuelPrmsRisk_web.pdf

30 Figure 22: Renewable Energy and Traditional Biomass Source: WorldWatch Institute, 2007 and UNEP, Towards sustainable production and use of resources: Assessing biofuels, 2009

31 Figure 23. Trends in Biofuel Production, Peta Joules Source: Adapted from UNEP, Towards sustainable production and use of resources: Assessing Biofuels, 2009; and SCOPE International Biofuels Project 2009, available at

32 Figure 24. Greenhouse Gas Savings of Biofuels Compared to Fossil Fuels Source: UNEP, Towards sustainable production and use of resources: Assessing biofuels,2009


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