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Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning1 Establishing Basic Parameters: Risk Assessment Session 2 World Bank Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning1 Establishing Basic Parameters: Risk Assessment Session 2 World Bank Institute."— Presentation transcript:

1 Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning1 Establishing Basic Parameters: Risk Assessment Session 2 World Bank Institute

2 2 Risk Assessment: Concepts and Definitions Risk Probability/likelihood of loss due to one or more hazard events in pre-defined geographical area Depends on severity of hazard, vulnerability of exposed assets and the capacity to cope with risk Includes time dimension or frequency of occurrence of hazards Risk Assessment Analysis of both the severity of hazard and vulnerability of assets in a particular location Could include a time-dependent dimension Can be undertaken at various levels of precision Provides input to planning strategies Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

3 3 Process to determine severity and spatial distribution of risk Analytical tool for disaster risk reduction Basis for land use planning interventions Risk Assessment: The Process Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Hazard Assessment Hazard Assessment Assets at Risk Assets at Risk Capacity Assessment Capacity Assessment Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

4 4 Precision of data Relatively rough information sufficient for public information and commitment building Greater levels of precision required to justify differential treatment of land Increasing precision increases the cost of assessment Time-related factors Recurrence interval of extreme events Current land use practices or future risks associated with alternative land use scenarios Depth of assessment Hazard analysis defines the spatial scale of the hazard and also generates commitment to public policy initiatives Vulnerability analysis helps to understand the consequences of alternative land use configurations Probabilistic risk analysis captures the full range of potential casualty and damage experiences for a rational comprehensive approach Risk Assessment: Initial Decisions Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

5 5 Analysis of: Hazards that may occur in a given area The history of the hazard occurrence The hazard intensity and impact Change in exposure with respect to time Areas that would be most affected within the city Population groups impacted the most Quantifies severity of hazard at a given site As a point estimate, or As a time-dependent probabilistic statement Results can be mapped to increase understanding and usage Geographic Information Systems can be useful Step 1: Hazard Identification and Analysis Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

6 6 Quantifies the degree of susceptibility of people and assets to sustain damage under various levels of hazard Physical vulnerability varies across a city and depends on the existing building stock and site conditions Socio-economic vulnerability depends on population distribution, socio-economic status, gender, race/ethnicity, age, nature of economy etc. Indicates elements at risk that need land use planning interventions Integrates capacity analysis to estimate protective and coping capabilities Step 2: Vulnerability Analysis

7 Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning7 Combines parameters of hazard and vulnerability to quantify losses Losses may include casualty, direct material losses and indirect material losses May or may not be time-dependent Time dependent risk assessment provides basis to determine acceptable level of risk Can be used to determine benefit-cost for land use planning interventions Level of precision/approximation of risk assessment depends on purpose of its use Step 3: Risk Analysis

8 8 Risk Assessment QuantitativeQualitativeExpert-drivenCommunity-driven Participatory in nature Incorporate variations in perception and acceptability of risk of stakeholders Community-based hazard and risk mapping Vulnerability and capacity assessments Performed by experts Requires high level of technical expertise Relies on quantitative methods Risk Assessment: Methods & Approaches Use analytical tools Provides technical and financial parameters for land use planning Suitable for subjective data that is difficult to quantify Do not require high level of technical expertise Can be performed by various stakeholders Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

9 9 Determines hazards that may occur in area Includes description of area and its environment Identifies and characterizes susceptible elements to the hazard Includes vulnerability and capacity of population, institutions and critical facilities Uses mapping tools to facilitate the process of stakeholders consultation and provide input to land use planning Risk Assessment Techniques: Risk Identification

10 Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning10 Best for a specific project, event or area Best for parameters that are difficult to quantify Helps planners follow systematic procedure for land use decisions Risk Assessment Techniques: Risk Checklist

11 Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning11 Charts parameters of frequency versus severity of hazards Uses two-dimensional chart Can be both quantitative and qualitative Interpretation must be consistent Used by planners to prioritize types of risks Risk Assessment Techniques: Risk Matrix

12 12 Location 1 Location 2 Location 3 Location 4 Severity of Hazard3542 Frequency of Hazard5331 Human Loss Potential3543 Economic Loss Potential3544 Response Capacity3333 Cumulative Risk Index to Community Risk Assessment Techniques: Risk Matrix Ranking of multiple locations on basis of a risk index (Location 2 has highest risk) Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

13 13 Ranking of multiple hazards FREQUENCY SEVERITY (LOSS) Very High High Medium Low Very Low LowMediumHighVery High Epidemics Forest Fires Floods Technological Droughts Earthquakes Risk Assessment Techniques: Risk Matrix Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

14 14 Calculates potential losses from a hypothetical event Provides understanding of the spatial distribution of losses to the built environment Develops internal institutional knowledge regarding vulnerabilities of infrastructure and population Serves as effective communication tool between various stakeholders Steps involve: Creating an inventory of built environment, human exposure, and economic value Analysis of potential hazards Analysis of potential damage Translation into social and economic loss Risk Assessment Methods: Scenario Analysis Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning

15 15 Estimates disaster loss from multiple events and the probability of occurrence of each event in time Analytically most sophisticated Important for planners to understand the concepts of probabilistic assessment Forms basis for: building code regulation, micro-zoning, benefit/cost analysis of risk reduction options Used to establish a threshold for acceptable risk Provides spatial distribution of severity of various hazards at a high level of resolution Risk Assessment Methods: Time – based Probabilistic Assessment

16 Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning16 Using the Results: Establishment of Basic Planning Parameters Based on participatory approach to: Establish level of acceptable risk Establish priorities Set planning strategies and interventions Look at options to reduce risk: Transfer or share Eliminate or avoid Accept, or retain and manage Mitigate

17 Continuously monitor status of risk and interaction with land use Factor into risk assessment and land use planning process the changes in risk Check the effectiveness of land use planning measures in reducing risk by: Using monitoring and evaluation forms Scheduling regular monitoring activities Assigning responsible parties Submitting progress reports Using indicators and benchmarks Monitoring Implementation Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning17

18 Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning18 Multiple hazards to which people are simultaneously exposed Difficulty in aggregating vulnerability across sectors Wide range of assets to be accounted for in measuring vulnerability and capacity Large number of stakeholders with roles to play in shaping risk Unequal access to technology, Inequality in the distribution of human resources, as well as hardware and inability to buy in data from private sources Focus on built assets at risk and less on people Difficulty of measuring human vulnerability Rapid changes in slums and low-income settlements Inability to include highly vulnerable populations in assessments Difference in expert risk assessments and public perceptions of risk Challenges to Risk Assessment

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