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Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation.

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Presentation on theme: "Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation."— Presentation transcript:

1 Commonwealth Financial Network ® does not provide legal or tax advice. You should consult a legal or tax professional regarding your individual situation. Securities offered through Commonwealth Financial Network ®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Presented by Presented by Ruth M. Matt, CFP ® Fore River Financial, 22 Free St, Suite 201, Portland, ME Fourth-Quarter 2014 Market Overview

2 Economic Summary: Fourth-Quarter (Q4) 2014 Milestones –Equity markets reach all-time highs. –China shrinks 2015 growth predictions amid economic slowdown. –U.S. GDP revised up to 5 percent in Q –Lawmakers take up $1.1 trillion spending bill. –Tensions between Russia and the West continue. –Oil falls below $50/barrel for the first time since 2009; energy securities decline. –European Central Bank readies asset-buying program. –President Obama uses executive power to overhaul immigration. –EU leaders agree to tough emissions targets. –Bond prices grind higher amid global growth concerns. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 Economic Themes Equities Fixed Income Housing Inflation Employment Business and Manufacturing Activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

4 Equities

5 Q4 2014: Equity Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct

6 Q4 2014: S&P 500 Sector Valuations Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Commonwealth Financial Network/Bloomberg

7 Q4 2014: Global Equity Valuations Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Commonwealth Financial Network/Bloomberg

8 Fixed Income

9 Q4 2014: Fixed Income Returns by Style Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results Q4 High-Yield High-Yield U.S. Treasury 9.81 Emerging Markets High-Yield 7.42 U.S. Treasury 1.93 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Corporates 8.15 High-Yield Mortgage −1.39 U.S. Core 1.79 Corporates Corporates 9.00 Emerging Markets 8.02 Foreign Sovereign Corporates −1.53 Mortgage 1.79 Foreign Sovereign U.S. Core 6.54 U.S. Core 7.84 Corporates 9.82 U.S. Core −2.02 Corporates 1.77 U.S. Core 5.93 U.S. Treasury 5.87 Mortgage 6.14 U.S. Core 4.21 U.S. Treasury −2.75 Foreign Sovereign 0.91 Mortgage 5.76 Mortgage 5.67 Foreign Sovereign 4.78 Mortgage 2.59 Foreign Sovereign −4.05 Emerging Markets −0.46 U.S. Treasury −3.57 Foreign Sovereign 4.05 High-Yield 4.38 U.S. Treasury 1.99 Emerging Markets −6.45 High-Yield −1.06 Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct

10 Treasury Yields

11 Where Are Rates Headed?

12 High-Yield Spread Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

13 Attractive Opportunities Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Announcement

14 Housing

15 Prices and Supply

16 Rental Vacancy and Rent Price

17 Inflation

18 Inflation: The Velocity of Money

19 Inflation: Growth in Personal Income

20 Employment

21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg Strong!

22 Unemployment Rate

23 Job Openings

24 Business and Manufacturing

25 ISM Manufacturing Robust!

26 Leading Indicators Index

27 Economic Expansion

28 U.S. Dollar and Oil

29 Conclusions Job growth was very strong in Q4; unemployment fell to 5.9 percent. Job openings reached pre-recession highs. The housing recovery is still progressing, but price increases may slow in the near term. GDP growth is expected to continue, with Q4 projections hovering in the range of 4 percent to 5 percent. Oil sell-off has created a potential tailwind of $100 billion–$125 billion for the domestic economy. Fixed income yields continue to move lower. Diffusion index shows strong labor growth in all sectors.

30 Looking Forward... Key themes to monitor –Earnings season for Q4 (beat or miss estimates?) –Will influx of housing inventory curtail price increases? –ECB and quantitative easing –U.S. dollar and impact on oil prices moving forward –Republican-controlled Congress and impact on markets –Overall level of rates and portfolio positioning –Equity valuations once again nearing multiyear highs in many areas –Will China stumble or experience a hard landing? –Are energy stocks poised for a rebound in 2015?

31 Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax- exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.


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