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2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011

2 1 Table of Contents

3 2 Returns by Style 2

4 3 Returns by Sector 3

5 4 U.S. Equity Indexes 4

6 5 S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points 5

7 6 Equity Scenarios: Bull, Bear and In-between 6

8 7 Investment Style Valuations 7

9 8 Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index 8

10 9 Earnings Estimates and Valuation Drivers 9

11 10 Deploying Corporate Cash 10

12 11 Sources of Profitability 11

13 12 Equity Correlations and Volatility 12

14 13 Economic Expansions and Recessions 13

15 14 Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP 14

16 15 Cyclical Sectors 15

17 16 Consumer Finances 16

18 17 Federal Finances

19 18 The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble 18

20 19 Employment 19

21 20 Job Growth, Productivity and Labor Force 20

22 21 Small Business 21

23 22 Corporate Profits 22

24 23 Consumer Price Index 23

25 24 Returns in Different Inflation Environments – 40 years 24

26 25 Oil and the Economy 25

27 26 Consumer Confidence 26

28 27 Fixed Income Sector Returns 27

29 28 Fixed Income Yields and Returns 28

30 29 The Federal Reserve 29

31 30 Credit Conditions 30

32 31 Treasury Yields and Inflation 31

33 32 Foreign Ownership of U.S. Treasuries 32

34 33 High Yield Bonds 33

35 34 Municipal Finance 34

36 35 Emerging Market Debt 35

37 36 International Returns: Local Currency vs. U.S. Dollars 36

38 37 The Economic Growth Differential 37

39 38 Global Economic Growth 38

40 39 Global Monetary Policy 39

41 40 Global Equity Valuations – Developed Markets 40

42 41 Global Equity Valuations – Emerging Markets 41

43 42 International Economic and Demographic Data 42

44 43 Sovereign Debt Vulnerability 43

45 44 Current Account Deficit and U.S. Dollar 44

46 45 Currencies 45

47 46 Asset Class Returns 46

48 47 Correlations: 10-Years 47

49 48 Mutual Fund Flows 48

50 49 Dividend Income: Domestic and Global 49

51 50 Global Commodities 50

52 51 Gold

53 52 Marginal and Average Tax Rates 52

54 53 Historical Returns by Holding Period 53

55 54 Diversification and the Average Investor 54

56 55 Market Comebacks: Bear Markets and Intra-year Declines 55

57 56 Alternative Investment Returns 56

58 57 Corporate DB Plans and Endowments 57

59 58 The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900 58

60 59 Page Reference

61 60 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index Definitions

62 61 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Index Definitions

63 62 J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Definitions, Risks & Disclosures


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