Presentation on theme: "Page 1 May 13, 2010 SCMP Public Opinion Survey Political Reform."— Presentation transcript:
Page 1 May 13, 2010 SCMP Public Opinion Survey Political Reform
Page 2 Contents Research Background and Objectives 3-4 Overview of Methodology 5-8 Key Findings 9-11 Election by Universal Suffrage - Desired Timing 12-14 Support for Government Proposal 15-21 Support for AUS Proposal 22-23 Functional Constituency Seats 24-27 LegCo By-Elections Voting 28-29 Page No.
Page 4 Research Background and Objectives The SCMP/TNS Opinion Leader Surveys are designed to reflect the perception of Hong Kong people towards key socio-economic and public policy issues. In May, TNS conducted an opinion poll on Political Reform in Hong Kong.
Page 6 Overview of Methodology Findings in the report are based on weighted data. Data have been weighted based on gender and age. Male Female 513 51% Gender 487 49% Age 25-34 35-44 389 410 201 39% 41% 20% SCMP ReadershipYesterday Reader 26% Business Executives BDM Opinion Leaders 979 343 98% 34% Total Sample 303 45+ Sample Composition 1000 262
Page 7 Overview of Methodology *Maximum Sampling Error: +3.1% at 95% confidence level Interviewing approach Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing via Lightspeed Research Hong Kong Panel Fieldwork period May 3 – May 10, 2010 Geographic coverageHong Kong Average interview length6 minutes Total sample size Target respondents Opinion leaders and business decision-makers aged 25+ years with average monthly household income HKD40,000 or above. n=1000*
Page 8 Business Decision Makers / Opinion Leaders The sample is comprised of respondents who are: Strategic business decision makers with purchase decision making responsibility on behalf of their company, or Opinion leaders who have engaged in one or more of the following: - Addressed a conference or public meeting - Formulated a strategic business plan - Taken executive decisions which affect own organisation's operations in other countries - Had an article or paper published - Worked on international business strategies - Lobbied or advised members of national or local government - Sat on an industrial / professional committee - Been interviewed on TV, radio, or by the press
Page 10 Key Findings Three quarters of the opinion leaders surveyed say that the Chief Executive should be chosen by universal suffrage no later than 2017. Among them, opinion is evenly divided on whether that should be 2012 or 2017. Similarly, over 70% say that all members of the Legco should be elected directly by 2016 – two in five say it should happen by 2012 while a third say 2016. While the govt’s proposal fails to win a majority, there are more in favour (two in five) than against (just over a quarter) with the rest undecided. Among supporters of the proposal, a slightly higher proportion (46% vs 40%) say they would not vote for pan-democratic candidates in the 2012 Legislative Council election if the pan-democratic camp vetoes the government proposal for the 2012 elections. Among those opposing the govt proposal, a marginally higher number (43% vs 39%) would vote for the pan-democrats if they support the government proposal. The government can increase support for its proposal by taking the following steps with over 60% of the opinion leaders say each of these steps would increase their support for the proposal. A pledge by the central government to abolish functional constituency seats in the Legislative Council. The central government’s reaffirmation of the goal of electing the chief executive and all Legco members by universal suffrage in 2017 and 2020 respectively. A pledge by the central or Hong Kong government to take incremental steps in 2016 towards universal suffrage, such as increasing the proportion of directly elected seats in the Legco. Over two in five say that the Central Govt should be the one making concessions to get the proposal passed, with another fifth saying the HK govt should make concessions. One in four feel it is the Pan-Democrats who should give in. Should the pan-democrats would veto the government proposal if the administration fails to give a roadmap for universal suffrage? Opinion is divided on that question with marginally more people saying (42% vs 39%) that they would be within their rights to do so. The proposal from the Alliance for Universal Suffrage gets a similar response as the govt proposal – roughly two in five for and just under a third against.
Page 11 Functional Constituency Seats On the question of whether functional constituency seats should be retained after universal suffrage, the vote is clearly against it with over half saying no and only a third in favour. A majority (55%) also say that these seats are not consistent with the concept of universal suffrage, while just under a third feel there is not necessarily a contradiction there. Expanding the electorate (74%) and “One person two votes” (56%) are felt to be measures that would make functional constituency more democratic while hardly anyone feels creating more functional constituencies is a solution to make them more democratic. About half the respondents plan to vote in the Legco by-elections on the 16th May with 30% saying they will not vote and the rest as yet undecided. Among those intending to vote, the candidates likely to garner the most votes are those from the Civic Party or the League of Social Democrats (63%). A fifth are undecided as to whom they’d vote for. Key Findings
Page 12 Election by Universal Suffrage - Desired Timing
Page 13 Q Q1 When should the chief executive be elected by universal suffrage? Election of Chief Executive by Universal Suffrage Base: All respondents (n=1000)
Page 14 Q Q2 When should all members of the Legislative Council be elected by universal suffrage? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Election of Members of Legislative Council by Universal Suffrage
Page 15 The government has proposed that the membership of the Election Committee which picks the chief executive in 2012 be enlarged by half to 1,200, and that 10 extra Legco seats be created - five directly elected and five functional constituency seats whose representatives district councilors would elect. A candidate would be able to run in the chief executive election if he receives 150 nominations. The government also said it would consider scrapping appointed seats on district councils after the reform proposal is passed. Support for Government Proposal
Page 16 Q Q3 Do you support the government proposal for the election of chief executive and Legislative Council in 2012? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Support for Government Proposal
Page 17 Q Q3 & Q5 Would you vote for pan-democratic candidates in your constituency in the 2012 Legislative Council election if the pan- democratic camp vetoes the government proposal for the 2012 elections? Base: All respondents who support or strongly support the proposal (n=425) Base: All respondents (n=1000) Supporters of Proposal – Vote for Pan Democratic Candidates
Page 18 Q Q3 & Q6 Would you vote for pan-democratic candidates in your constituency in the 2012 Legislative Council election if the pan- democratic camp supports the government proposal for the 2012 elections? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Base: All respondents who oppose or strongly oppose the proposal (n=285) Opposers of Proposal – Vote for Pan Democratic Candidates
Page 19 Which improvements to the government proposal are needed to win your support for the package? Q4 Q % ranking item in top 3 Base: All respondents who oppose, strongly oppose, neither support nor oppose or no comment to the proposal (n=575) Changes Needed to Win Support
Page 20 Q Q7 Which party should make more concessions to ensure the passage of the government proposal for the 2012 elections? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Who Should Make Concessions to Pass Govt Proposal
Page 21 Q Q8 Should the pan-democratic camp veto the government proposal for the 2012 elections if the administration fails to give a roadmap for universal suffrage? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Should Pan-democrats Veto Proposal If No Roadmap Provided?
Page 22 The Alliance for Universal Suffrage, which is made up of 13 pan- democratic groups, has proposed a 1,200-strong nominating committee put forward candidates for chief executive election in 2017, with any candidates who obtain 100 nominations eligible to run for election. For the Legco election in 2020, the number of seats would increase to 100. Half of the seats would be elected by voters in various geographical constituencies under the proportional representation system. The rest of the seats would be elected by all voters in Hong Kong under the proportional representation system, with the whole city as one constituency. Support for AUS Proposal
Page 23 Q Q9 Do you agree with the alliance’s proposal? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Support for AUS Proposal
Page 25 Q Q10 Do you agree functional constituency seats in the Legislative Council should be retained in 2020 when the legislature is elected by universal suffrage? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Retention of Functional Constituency Seats After Universal Suffrage
Page 26 Q Q12 Do you agree functional constituencies are consistent with universal suffrage? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Are Functional Constituencies Consistent with Universal Suffrage?
Page 27 Making Functional Constituencies More Democratic - Options Q Q11 Do you agree the following steps to make functional constituencies more democratic? Base: All respondents agree to retain constituency seats in Q10 (n=317)