Presentation on theme: "The Mathematics of the General Election Dr Justin Greaves Department of Politics University of Warwick."— Presentation transcript:
The Mathematics of the General Election Dr Justin Greaves Department of Politics University of Warwick
Outline of this talk The basics (background and context) What is a ‘swing’? What is a ‘hung parliament’? The electoral system Opinion polls The national debt (perhaps the main election issue?)
So, what are the basics? More than 45 million people aged 18 or above vote for a new Member of Parliament (MP) for the area in which they live (Constituency) Elections must be held at least every five years in Britain – up to PM to choose the date Traditionally held on a Thursday
Why a Thursday? One theory about its origins is that people were not paid until Fridays and so holding polls on Thursdays ensured they were not too drunk to vote
Two controversial issues 1.Should the voting age be reduced to 16? 2.Should we introduce compulsory voting (as in Australia)?
What is a ‘swing’? Swing is a tool which helps explain how elections are won and lost In simple terms it is a way of measuring how the public's support of political parties changes from one election to the next
The calculation Step 1. Add the rise in one party's share in the vote to the fall in the second party's share of the vote. Step 2. Divide your figure by two. The resulting figure is the swing.
An example In the 2005 General Election the Labour Party had a lead of 3% over the Conservative Party Let’s assume that in Thursday’s election, the result is a Con lead of 4% over Labour Exercise: calculate the swing
What to look out for 1.6% swing against Labour: Labour lose their overall majority 4.3% swing against Labour: The Conservatives become the largest party. They would still not have an overall majority. 6.9% swing against Labour: The Conservatives gain an overall majority and therefore form the next government (but will a UNS operate?)
What is a ‘hung parliament’? If one party has an absolute majority it means that it has more seats than all the other parties put together (326+)
If no party has such a majority then there is a hung parliament The smaller parties can then join forces to out-vote the government This makes it difficult to pass laws
There is a good chance of a hung parliament resulting from this election The last time it happened was in February 1974
Options in a hung parliament Formal coalition (alliance with another party) Confidence and supply Minority government If none of these options work there would have to be another election
Why is it so rare? Hung Parliaments and coalitions happen a lot in other countries So why are they so rare in the UK? This is mainly a result of our electoral system
Proportional Representation Many countries have a proportional electoral system (eg: under PR if a party wins 30% of the votes, it will win approx 30% of the seats) It is rare for any one party to get over 50% of the vote Therefore, in these countries parties will have to work together
First past the post Britain has a first past the post electoral system Therefore, 650 constituencies In each one, the candidate who gets the most votes wins (even if it is less than 50%) EG: if the winner gets 36% of the vote they still take the seat
It is like a horse race The winner of the race is the first to pass a particular point on the track
Strange results FPP can throw up strange results: 1.A party with 35/40% support can get well over 50% of the seats 2.The party that wins most votes may not win most seats (eg: 1974) 3.The Lib Dems could come first in vote share and third in seats
Opinion polls You may have seen opinion polls in the media These may only interview 1000 people out of the whole population of Britain If the sample is ‘representative’ these polls should be accurate
Polls usually have a margin of error of + or – 3% 19 times out of 20 a poll should fall between this margin of error
Think, pair, share What could cause an opinion poll to be biased or skewed in some way?
National debt and borrowing One of the biggest election issue is the amount of money the government is borrowing (and Britain’s national debt) Due to the recession the government had to borrow a lot of money