1. Public Opinion and Socialization
U.S. Politics
Public Opinion and Socialization

3. Overview Public Opinion: Definition Measuring Public Opinion
Survey Design
Scientific vs. “Unscientific” polls
Variables to be measured
Factors Shaping Public Opinion
Importance of Public Opinion

4. Definition
Polling and Politics
Iraq War
Economic Stimulus Package

5. Definition
Public Opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population

6. Measuring Public Opinion
Need to add and combine these individual opinions so that we can then determine what the public as a whole believes
Collect data in a scientifically rigorous fashion

7. Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data

8. Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample
Who’s opinion are you interested in measuring?
Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data

9. Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample
every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data

10. Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample
Write Questions
ensure that questions are fair, non-leading, and clear
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data

11. Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
contact those selected in the random sample
Analyze Data

12. Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample
Write Questions
Conduct Poll
Analyze Data
Intepret what the numbers mean

13. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
Key is in the random sample
“random”: every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey
Allows us to calculate the margin of error and the confidence interval

14. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
Margin of Error: How much the sample reports differ from the total population
+/- 3.5% to about +/- 6%
45% with a 4% margin of error
45%
41%
49%

15. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
Confidence Interval: How sure we are in the results
.01 to .05

16. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls
Need to be able to determine how much your sample differs from the total population, and how sure you are in the results
If no random sample, no way to determine that

17. Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change
Strongly Agree
Agree
Disagree
Strongly Disagree

18. Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change
Don’t Know
Yes No

19. Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change
Disagree
Agree

20. Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change
Yes No

21. Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change
% agreeing t1 t2 t3 t4 t5

22. Factors Shaping Public Opinion
Education
Media
Family
Race
Political Party
Income
Religion
Current Events
Gender
Geography

23. Importance of Public Opinion
Connection to Democracy
Shaping Public Policy
Informing political leaders
Controllinig political leaders