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Aidan Tuohy Sr. Project Engineer NWPCC Flexibility Metric Roundtable April 2013 Metrics and Methods to Assess Power System Flexibility
2 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Contents 1.Strategic and flexible planning project (P40.019) –Work to date –Current work 2.Flexibility assessment metrics –System flexibility metrics –Refinements required
3 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Strategic and flexible planning project (P40.019) Multi - year research project (Y3) Measurement of variability focused on in Y1 Characterization of variability of wind and PV (VG) combined with demand Net load variability Uncertainty and variability have two separate effects –Demand is highly variable, but extremely predictable –VG is currently less variable, but far less predictable –Net load variability and predictability will change as the VG penetration changes
4 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Work To Date: Measuring Variability
5 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Work To Date: How Much Flexibility is Required? At wind output 50% of installed capacity, system needs to ramp at 14 % of installed wind to meet 99.7% of ramps, or ~8% of installed wind to meet 99% of ramps
6 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Work To Date: Flexibility Screening Tool System flexibility in screening tool (Y2) Rough assumptions about worst case scenario ramps (e.g. 99 th percentile ramps) Flexibility generator states Without real time limitations, assumptions are required Shows key time horizons for flexibility issues
7 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Current Work – Detailed Flexibility Assessment Improve representation of flexible resources –Energy limited resource deployment –Import/Export resources –Realistic thermal resource capabilities Probabilistic representation of VG outputs –Simulating many scenarios More detailed flexibility metrics
8 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Flexibility Metrics
9 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Flexibility Metric Options Duration curve approach: Ramp Percentile Deficit (%) Historical / simulated production & net load data Calculate available flexibility time series for each resource Sum available flexibility to a system level Calculate the x th percentile of net load ramps Determine the number of hours the net load ramps exceed the flexibility available For all time intervals For both directions
10 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Ramp Percentile Deficit 8% (Down, 5 min, 99 Pctle.) 13% (Up, 5 min, 99 Pctle.)
11 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Flexibility Metric Options Reliability type metrics: Insufficient Ramping Resource Expectation (IRRE) Historical / simulated production & net load data Separate +ve and -ve net load ramps Calculate available flexibility time series for each resource Sum available flexibility, create distribution of available flexibility Calculate probabilities of meeting each net load ramp Determine expected value For all time intervals For both directions
12 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Insufficient Ramp Resource Expectation IRRE UPWARD FLEXIBILITY RESULTS 6 UNIT TEST SYSTEM IRRE UPWARD FLEXIBILITY RESULTS 6 UNIT TEST SYSTEM
13 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Current Development Better representation of resources in probabilistic models –Operational time frame resource model –Logic module for hydro and energy limited resources Transmission representation in the assessment of flexibility –What impact does congestion have on flexibility? –Can you deploy all the resources you think you can? –Where should new flexible resources be placed? Traffic light system –Define acceptable risk zone. Measure excursions.
14 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Ramping Well-Being Metrics
15 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity
05/14/2014 Flexibility Methods Workgroup. 2 © 2014 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Overview/Agenda Discussion of Literature.
© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Aidan Tuohy EPRI Grid Ops and Planning Iowa State University.
CCU Department of Electrical Engineering National Chung Cheng University, Taiwan Impacts of Wind Power on Thermal Generation Unit Commitment and Dispatch.
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IRP Review IRPs with Significant Detail on Flexibility Assessment Portland General Electric Puget Sound Energy Other IRPs.
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A Summary on Probabilistic Workshop held on September 9, 2014 Milorad Papic (RAWG Chair) Salt Lake City, January 13, 2015.
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Julia Matevosyan, Resource Adequacy January, 2014 Application of KERMIT in the DOE LTS process.
ALBERTA WIND POWER VARIABILITY STUDY Represented by Tommi Pensas.
Western Wind Integration Study May 23, Agenda 10:00am - Introductions 10:15 –Overview of study - NREL –Analysis to be conducted and examples of.
Western Wind Integration Study Debbie Lew NREL. Goal To support multi-state interests in understanding the operating and cost impacts due to the variability.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future * NREL July 5, 2011 Tradeoffs and Synergies between CSP and PV at High Grid Penetration.
Smart Grid Vision: Vision for a Holistic Power Supply and Delivery Chain Stephen Lee Senior Technical Executive Power Delivery & Utilization November 2008.
1 SEEEI International – Electricity 2012: “Effects of volatile RES on Power Systems” Israel – Eilat 14 November 2012 Effects of volatile RES on Power Systems.
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Lynn Coles, PE National Wind Technology Center National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado USA 10 FAQ’s (Frequently Asked Questions) About Wind.
NW Loss of Load Probability James Gall Power Supply Analyst
ISO Confidential Overview of California’s Current Drought and its Effects on the Energy System Dede Subakti, P. E. Director, Operations Engineering Services.
Michael Schilmoeller Wednesday, June 27, 2012 Quantifying Imbalance Reserves and Requirements.
ERCOT Planning WMS 10/20/2010 Target Reserve Margin and Effective Load Carrying Capability of Installed Wind Capacity for the ERCOT System – Methodology.
© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Matthew Rylander EPRI April 20, 2015 Streamlined Method for Determining Distribution.
Power Supply Adequacy Assessment Model/Methodology Review Steering Subcommittee Meeting January 29, 2010.
October 29, Organizational role of Short-Term Planning and Hydro Duty Scheduling Relationship to other groups in BPA Planning and analysis job.
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable.
Copyright 2013 by Baringa Partners LLP. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. PPA Route to Market Imbalance Risk Analysis An Update Oliver.
PV Market Trends and Technical Details. All of US has Suitable Solar Resource for Large Scale PV Deployment.
Distribution System Analysis for Smart Grid Roger C. Dugan Sr. Technical Executive, EPRI Webcast Feb 8, 2011.
PLWG Report to ROS July 9, PGRRs needing vote PGRR043 – FIS Scoping Amendment – PGRR043 moves the Subsynchronous Resonance (SSR) Study out of the.
Variability and Uncertainty in Energy Systems Chris Dent Turing Gateway workshop: Maths and Public Policy - Cities & Infrastructure.
ENERGY CENTER State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) Alternative Resources and Energy Capacity Presented by: Douglas J. Gotham Purdue University Presented.
10/4/20021 Systems Analysis Advisory Committee (SAAC) Friday, October 4, 2002 Michael Schilmoeller John Fazio.
Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) Project October 16, 2009 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting.
Long Term Study Transmission Results May 21 st, 2013.
Capacity Metric & Hydro Capacity Assessment Decisions Mary Johannis PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting June 20, 2007.
03 July 2015Course Overview1 Energy Project Evaluation RES Course ESP606 Goal: To build up knowledge to so that participants will be able to assess if.
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Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study David Corbus - Project Manager Matt Schuerger (Consultant) National Wind Technology Center NREL Golden,
1 Planning Reserve Margin Dan Egolf Senior Manager, Power Supply & Planning.
09/17/2006 Ken Donohoo ERCOT Peak Day August Initial Settlement Data by Fuel Type.
GE Energy Asia Development Bank Wind Energy Grid Integration Workshop: Issues and Challenges for systems with high penetration of Wind Power Nicholas W.
1 Ancillary Services Requirements for Future Ancillary Services Cost Benefit Analysis FAS/SIRS Meeting September 21, 2015.
Methodologies for Quantifying Energy Security in the Power Sector William Blyth 24 th April 2005.
Operating Reserves Task Force
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