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Preliminary Analysis of the SEE Future Infrastructure Development Plan and REM Benefits.

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Presentation on theme: "Preliminary Analysis of the SEE Future Infrastructure Development Plan and REM Benefits."— Presentation transcript:

1 Preliminary Analysis of the SEE Future Infrastructure Development Plan and REM Benefits

2 RESULTS OF THE FIRTS SIMULATION

3 Benefits Simulation Methodology Study Year : 2001 Operation Simulation Scenarios for the Regional Market Base Reference Actual 2001 Dispatch (non Optimized) Case 1Optimized Dispatch with the Constraint of Actual Power Exchange Flows Case 2 Optimized Dispatch with the Constraint of Maximum Interconnection Capacity

4 Preliminary Results of Simulation: Regional Operating Costs in 2001 (Million US$)  Economic Benefits are Underestimated Reserve Sharing Reserve Sharing Economics of Scale Economics of Scale Improved Efficiency (Market Related)Improved Efficiency (Market Related)

5 Preliminary Results of Simulation: Transmission Capacity Utilization in 2001

6 Preliminary Results of Simulation: Net Energy Import and Export in 2001 (a)Including 6164 GWh to Turkey and Greece (b)Bulgaria with the lowest production cost based on information provided, including Kozloduy I & II (a), (b)

7 Next Steps  Simulation of the Future Regional Market over a 10 to 15 Year Horizon (Based on actualized National Load Forecasts)  Least Cost National and Regional Development Plan (Benefits and Costs)  Allocation of Benefits and Costs Among Countries  Implication of REM in Reduced Needs for System Expansion  Impact of External Markets (Countries) on the National and Regional Development Plan  Western Europe, Turkey, Moldova, Ukraine, Greece, Italy, Austria, Slovenia

8 RESULTS OF THE SECOND SIMULATION

9 Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Objectives  Objectives Determining the benefits as well as the optimal generation and interconnection* infrastructure expansion plan, year by year, based on the optimal regional coordinated operation for the overall region and for each participating country  Study Period: 2003 ~ 2010 (*) : planned for next phase This should represent a good approximation of a price formation under REM initial opening

10 Two scenarios analyzed given the time constraint:  Scenario 1 – Optimal Energy trades through existing regional interconnections Optimal expansion plan and generation dispatches, year by year, under regional coordinated operations, allowing the existing interconnections between countries to be used up to their thermal capacity limits in 2001, where this is justified by cost savings  Scenario 2 – Constrained Energy trades through existing regional interconnections O ptimal expansion plan and generation dispatches, year by year, under regional coordinated operations, limiting the energy trades to the actual level of exchanges Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Many Scenarios!

11  Historical Hourly Demand and Forecast  EKC, the Utilities in the Balkans and World Bank/KfW  Power Systems Data  SDDP Data Base for Preliminary Analysis of Potential Regional Benefits in the SEE Region (re. Zagreb Workshop)  Capital Costs of Candidate Plants  SNC-Lavalin Databases  Fuel Costs (average country level)  The Utilities in Balkans  The U.S. Department of Energy  Generation Units Retirement Schedules  The Utilities in Balkans Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Sources of Data

12 SEE Incremental Demand by 2010 : 5 462 MW Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Demand Forecasts

13 Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Mix Candidate Plants

14 Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Fuel Mix and Prices

15 Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Modeling Principles The objective of the expansion planning model is to determine the investment schedule of new agents in the system that minimize the sum of the investment cost and the operation expected cost in order to satisfy the system operation constraints and the investment constraints. The objective of expansion planning studies is the determination of a capacity reinforcement schedule (hydro and thermal generators, plus regional interconnections) that allows an economic and reliable suppy of forecasted load over the study period. SDDP (Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming) is a transmission-constrained probabilistic multi0area hydro-thermal production costing model. Main modeling features include: - ·  Flows in the transmission network solved(re:. LMP and Congestion costs) ·  Optimization of multiple reservoirs simultaneously. Opportunity cost of water calculated for each hydro plant, allowing the optimal dispatch of hydro/thermal resources and based on balance between the immediate and future operating costs associated to using the water and storing it for future use. ·

16 A Powerful Set of Integrated Iterative Short Tem & Long Term Expansion Plan Simulation Modeling Tools Sharing Common Integrated Databases Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis: Integrated Simulations Tool SDDP OPTGEN Approximate Investment IssuesOperation Simulation Scenario # 2 Expansion Plan (Automatic Iterations x*) Energy Production, Marginal Costs, System Operation Costs, etc. Operation Simulation Scenario # M Compute Stochastic Operating Policy Operation Simulation Scenario # 1

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18 Greece 780 150 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: SCENARIO 1 Regional Expansion Planning --- New Capacity in 2006 Illustrative

19 Greece Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: SCENARIO 1 Regional Expansion Planning --- New Capacity till 2010 780 150 200 150 300 150 200 250 500250 200 250 100 250 150 100 Illustrative

20 Greece Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: SCENARIO 2 Regional Expansion Planning --- New Capacity in 2004 100 Illustrative

21 Greece Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: SCENARIO 2 Regional Expansion Planning --- New Capacity till 2010 100 780 150 250 500250 200 250 150 300 150 300 250 100 200 250 300 200 100 Illustrative

22 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: Expansion Plan Comparison for Scenario 1 vs. Scenario 2--- till 2010 Total New Capacity Added to the Region till 2010 Scenario 1 --- 4,130 MW Scenario 2 --- 5,080 MW

23 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: Load Marginal Costs Under Scenario 1 & 2 Assuming no Transmission congestion

24 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: Load Marginal Costs Comparison for Scenario 1 vs. Scenario 2

25 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: Energy Exchanges Between Countries under Scenario 1 --- 2010 (GWh) 317 1791 445 2027 639 151 15243 6457 2290 1017 489 2169 1857 107 4668 7564 622 3902 244 3564 3834 3337 2533 1004 2734 35 1786 739 6431 895 4823 1333

26 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: Energy Exchanges Between Countries under Scenario 2 --- 2010 (GWh) 1243 658 880 1680 546 25 8214 2189 731 3363 3293 2628 4361 2 1752 524 1972 779 3756 970 2365 344 1737 336 1356 78 5068 850

27 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: Comparison of Energy Exchanges in 2010 for Scenario 1 vs. Scenario 2

28 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results: Comparison of Operating Costs for Scenario 1 vs. Scenario 2

29 Proposed Next Steps  Update National and Regional Load Forecast  Link with SECI Transmission Planning Group and evaluate LMP or Congestion Costs  Determine Interconnection Capacity Size, Location and sequencing  Assess Reduced Needs for System Expansion and Future Investments  Impact of External Markets (Countries) on the National and Regional Development Plan  Establish Regional Infrastructure Program and priority Investment Needs

30 Proposed Program – Activity REM 1302, with participating countries

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32 Table of Contents  Infrastructure Development Plan & REM Benefits Analysis  Objectives  Scenario definitions  Data Sources and Assumptions  Modeling  Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results  Expansion Plan  Load Marginal Cost  Energy Import and Export  Benefits  Next Step


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