Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Energetic Particles in Space: its role in Space Weather Studies. Karel Kudela IEP SAS Košice, Slovakia ECRS 2012, Moscow July 5, 2012.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Energetic Particles in Space: its role in Space Weather Studies. Karel Kudela IEP SAS Košice, Slovakia ECRS 2012, Moscow July 5, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Energetic Particles in Space: its role in Space Weather Studies. Karel Kudela IEP SAS Košice, Slovakia ECRS 2012, Moscow July 5, 2012

2 1.Relativistic electrons. Magnetospheric transmissivity. 2.Using network(s) of NMs MTs and other instruments for alerts of space weather events. 2.1.Radiation storms Geoeffective events CR fluctuations. 3. Quasi-periodic variations observed in CR: information for space-weather related effects in vicinity of Earth. 4. Summary.

3 Introduction. Reviews and comprehensive analysis on relations between energetic particles in space and Space Weather research, e.g. : (Flückiger ECRS, 2004; Storini ECRS 2006 and 2010; Mavromichalaki et al, 2006; Kudela et al, 2000; 2009; Singh et al., 2010) – cosmic rays (Panasyuk, 2001; 2004) – mainly magnetospheric populations (Miroshnichenko, 2003) – radiation hazard in space (Scherer et al., 2005; Bothmer and Daglis, 2007)) – SpW effects and physics behind Models and Standards in several countries (e.g. by WG4 (Space Environment) of ISO/TC20/SC14 related to space radiation and space weather (info by Kalegaev)); ESA standards as Space Engineering - Space Environment (http://www.ecss.nl (info by Rodgers)); ISO Space environment (natural and artificial) Models of GCR; ISO Space environment (natural and artificial) Simulation guidelines for radiation exposure of non-metallic materials; ISO Space environment (natural and artificial) Model of Earth's magnetospheric magnetic field. Models are presented at e.g. Others in preparation. Here only selected recent results mentioned. Relations to health not included here.

4 Electrons due to their penetration ability into materials (cables, inner spacecraft system) are dangerous for satellites. Deep dielectric charging. From (Baker et al., 1998 ) Also SEU (SAA, high lat.) Nighttime injection of e to magnetosphere during storms correlate with satellite errors Relativistic electrons.

5 (Belov et al, 2004, Dorman et al, 2005, Iucci et al., 2006) in extensive statistical studies of satellite anomalies (220 satellites) found characteristics for quiet and dangerous days anomalies indicating clear difference also in energetic electron fluence. From (Belov et al., 2004)

6 Fig. 11 of (Lazutin, 2012, 2011). CF ~ 500 km S1 ~ 1000 km At L = 3.5 over BMA by SERVIS-1 (S1) and CORONAS-F (CF). Dst – lower panel Also (Hasebe et al., 2008) essential part of the RB dynamics during magnetic storms may be explained by the change of the magnetic field configuration and the adiabatic effects. Along with non-adiabatic radial diffusion it results in the radial displacement of the outer RB rather than the large losses or total disappearance of the outer RB. Input for models e

7 (Kovtyukh, 2012) using CORONAS-F data, during 22 strong storms: maximum of a new belt of relativistic electrons (0.6–1.5 MeV) at low altitudes (~500 km) is located on average at lesser L as compared to similar measurements near the geomagnetic equator plane. Geomagnetic field can substantially deviate from dipole configuration not only at the geomagnetic trap periphery, but at its core as well (at L ~ 2.5– 3.5), and these deviations are nonlinear. Simultaneous measurements of the fluxes of relativistic electrons at low and high altitudes can serve for estimation of the real shape of magnetic field lines at L < 4 during geomagnetic disturbances. The new belt of relativistic electrons begins its formation on the outer edge of the ring current in the very beginning of the recovery phase of storms, and that the new storm belt of relativistic electrons is a result of pumping the energy of a decaying ring current through electromagnetic waves to electrons. Also SCR boundary of penetration can be used for testing the geomagnetic field model validity (Lazutin et al., 2012).

8 2001, FD, Increase of relativ. electrons by >2 orders after the FD, no storm Ack.

9 (Reeves et al., 2011) by extensive analysis confirmed that the geosynchronous relativistic e flux ( MeV) is best correlated with the solar wind velocity measured 2 days earlier. However, the dependence is not linear, high fluxes are observed for various sw velocities (triangle distribution).

10 Cross-correlation of energetic e flux at low orbit (low equatorial pitch angles) vs sw speed, Kp etc using SERVIS-1 data (>0.3 MeV). Preliminary example ( L=4, 448 points in years , MeV):

11 (Balikhin et al.2011), stressed importance of high speed, low density solar wind for e flux. Themis A, preliminary, , L=6.6, narrow interval of B, no dep. on B. V sw and n sw one day before.

12 (Antonova et al., 2011, Riazantseva et al., 2012) indicate that also the auroral oval can be considered as a region of intense acceleration of energetic electrons - for the analysis of processes leading to the filling of the outer radiation belt and appearance of “killer-electrons”. At high lat’s there are regions with trapping-like structure. Needs to be included in new models of electron flux. Electrons are present there even during quiet-time periods. Relativ. electrons (0.2 – 1 MeV) - CORONAS-Photon, south.(Riazantseva et al., 2012). Multiple observations (3 subsequent orbits) of e poleward from from outer belt boundary – long duration of e enhancement. Dst > -9 nT for No e flux on ACE

13 1.2. Magnetospheric transmissivity. Strong changes in geomagnetic cut-offs during strong storms have been reported previously (e.g. Tyasto et al., 2009). The predicted cut-offs and asymptotic directions are different for different geomagnetic field models with external current sources (e.g. Kudela et al., 2008). Cut-offs are related to IMF, Dst and to solar wind parameters (Tyasto et al., 2011). At high latitudes the cut-offs are decreasing. The depressions is close or below the atmospheric threshold. The changes of cut-offs have to be taken into account in using the global spectrographic global survey method. Assuming both IP anisotropy and change of cut-offs leads to estimate of rather high anisotropy for one event (Sdobnov, 2011).

14 In addition to MAGNETOCOSMIC (U. Bern) a calculator-like tool for cut-offs, asymptotic directions with Tsyganenko’96 model has been developed (INFN Milano and IEP SAS Kosice). (web model, mail model – different in rigidity step). Position, time. Structure of allowed, forbidden trajectories, open access. Interactive paraboloid model of Magnetosphere at aboloid/index (Alexeev et al., 2001). aboloid/index Although the cut-offs at Oulu, Apatity decrease also, the effect of improved transmissivity is not seen due to changes below the atmospheric cut- offs. At Almaty and Lomnický štít it is clearly seen.

15 2. Using network(s) of NMs, other instruments for alerts of SpW Geoeffective events. NMs - precursors before arrival of IP shock to Earth and before the onset of FD (Dorman, 1963). Evolutions of Dst and FD are very different (e.g. Kane, 2010; Kudela and Brenkus, 2004). High v, par – info about precursory A related to IMF inhomogenity - transmitted fast to remote sites: deficit of CR observed up to distance ~0.1. par. cos(  ),  - cone angle of IMF(Ruffolo, 1999). Precursors to FD: proposed in the frame of PA transport near oblique, plane- parallel shock. Range in power-law index of IMF turbulence,  decay length for primary energies to which NM and muon detectors (MD) are sensitive, the loss cone precursors should be observed by NM ~4 hr prior to shock arrival, by MD ~15 hr prior to shock arrival (Leerungnavarat et al, 2003).

16

17 From (Mavromichalaki et al., 2011). Many NMs used. Example of anisotropy evolution before the SSC. After reduction of isotropy part. Black, grey - decreases, increases, size of circles - amplitude of changes with respect to base values before the event. European project, Steigies, U. Kiel (http://nmdb.eu) coordinating - recently joined other NMs (US, S. African and others).http://nmdb.eu

18 Precursory appearance probability by GMDN before the geomagnetic storms of various intensity ( ). NP – without precursor; EV, enhanced variance; LC, loss cone precursors. From (Rockenbach et al., 2011). Superstorms <-250 nT, IS (-250, -100) nT; MS (-100, -50) nT. Limitations. Percentage of the events accompanied by the precursors prior to the Sudden Storm Commencement (SSC) increases with |Dst|. Accompanied by CR precursor in average by ~7.2 hrs in advance of the SSC. EV, LC – types of anisotropy. b. Statistical studies.

19 (Papailiou et al., 2012a) analyzed FDs in 1967 – 2006 with anisotropy Axy > 1.2% (93 events). 27 different FDs, out of 93, were chosen based on their common behavior in the asymptotic longitudinal CR distribution diagrams. Three groups are recognized: 1. pre-decrease in the longitudinal zone 90° – 180° noticed almost 24 h before the shock arrival (5) 2. pre-increase in the longitudes around and above 180° and lasts almost 12 hours until the FD (14) 3. pre-decrease in different longitudes and of different duration observed (8). The increase in the first harmonic of CR anisotropy before the shock arrival is a good tool in searching for predictors of FDs and magnetic storms and can also serve as one of the indices that characterize the occurrence of precursors. Group 1 is analyzed in detail by (Papailiou et al., 2012b). A long pre-decrease up to 24 hours before the shock arrival in a narrow longitudinal zone 90° to 180° is found.

20 c. fluctuations. Short term fluctuations ( T <1 h) – first studied (Dhanju, Sarabhai, 1967). Significant changes in the spectra of rapid fluctuations are often observed about a day before and during large-scale IMF disturbances (e.g. Kozlov et al., 1973; Dorman and Libin, 1985; Kudela et al., 1996; Starodubtsev et al., 2004, 2006). (Kudela and Storini, 2005) - a different distribution of the CR indices for 24 h before the sharp Dst decreases in comparison with that for geomagnetically quiet periods. Better relation of Dst to “prehistory” of CR fluctuations than to the actual fluctuations.

21 (Kozlov and Kozlov, 2011) introduced CR fluctuation parameter - indicator of the IMF inhomogeneity degree in the vicinity of shocks. Important for a medium-term prediction of geoeffective 11-year cycle periods with a lead time of ~1 solar rotation and for an online prediction of shocks - lead time of ~1 day. From (Kozlov and Kozlov, 2011, fig.10): Sep. 5 – Nov. 10, Fluct. par. GCR (right), GCR (left) – illustration of the prediction ability

22 In addition to NM and MT (ground) measurements the informations from satellite detectors with large geometric factors are important for checking the fine structure of CR fluctuations before, during and after geomagnetic storms (and/or FD). Such possibility gives e.g. INTEGRAL measurements. Copied from (Mulligan et al., 2009). Due to high statistics ( more than 1 order higher than NMs at mountains, direct measurements) the authors revealed fine structure of CR within a 3-day interval from to many intensity variations in the GCR on a variety of time scales and amplitudes. In NM forecasts to utilize such type of sat. meas. Fluctuations can be studied with higher statistics.

23 Pierre Auger project – part. The full SD array was completed in 2008, with a collecting area of more than m 2 and a scaler counting rate 2 × 10 8 counts.min −1. (Dasso et al., 2012). If 1 min data available,  ~ , by 2 orders better than the count rate by NMs, Fine structure: at ~ 1 s if available, possible studies (  ~  

24 Relatively recently started measurements which may help in future in Space weather studies by CR (only selected mentioned) (Mishev and Stamenov, 2008, Angelov et al., 2008) Moussala, Bulgaria Muon measurement in Greifswald, Germany (Hippler et al., 2008) MUSTANG SEVAN (Chilingarian et al., 2009) CARPET – (De Mendonca et al., 2011) CaLMa – Spain NM 2012 (Medina et al, 2012) KACST muon detector (Maghrabi et al., 2011) and others…

25 2.2. Radiation storms. Ions - several tens to hundreds of MeV - most important for the radiation hazard effects during solar radiation storms with electronic element failures on satellites, communication and biological consequences. Before their massive arrival, NM, if good temporal resolution and network by many stations is in real time operation, can provide useful alerts several minutes to tens minutes in advance (Dorman, 2005). Probabilistic models of SEP fluxes (e.g. Tylka et al., 1997; Nymmik, 2007) SEP and NM network(s), solar n, gamma, electrons. a. NM at a single site (high latitude, good statistics) allows to obtain real time energy spectrum of SEP: South Pole combination of NM64 and that lacking usual lead shielding (Bieber, 2006). January 20, 2005 event.

26 (S. Y. Oh et al., 2009) checked the potential of South Pole NM data for prediction of radiation storm intensity measured by GOES. The energy spectrum was estimated. (S.Y. Oh et al., 2010): 31 SPEs associated with GLEs. Fluences and peak intensities of SPEs have good correlation with % increases in GLEs, best at channels > 350 MeV). For > 350 MeV the threshold values for GOES fluence and peak intensity are found: most SPEs above threshold are associated with GLEs, almost none below the thresholds.

27 b. Network of high latitude stations. Ground level enhancement real-time alarm based on 8 high latitude NMs including those at high mountain is described by (Kuwabara et al, 2006). Three level alarm system. Out of 10 GLEs in archived data the system produced 9 correct alarms. GLE system gives earlier warning than satellite (SEC/NOAA) alert. From Kuwabara et al, 2006

28 c. Including NM at various cut-offs. Several steps of GLE alert algorithm using NM network described by Mavromichalaki et al., NMDB project of 7FP EU (http://nmdb.eu). Anashin et al, 2009 – development of alert signal for GLEs.

29 GLE 71. (Klein, B ü tikofer, 2012, at ). May 17, first in 24 th solar cycle.http://www.nmdb.eu/?q=node/480 Highest signal at South Pole, both detectors, not observed > 3 GV cut-off

30 Report from the Athens group distributed (Mavromichalaki et al.): The operational real-time Alert Code of the Athens Neutron Monitor via NMDB issued an Alert signal at at 02:13 UT 39 min in advance from GOES ! (Apatity, Oulu, FSMT) NOAA issued an ALERT based on the recordings of the proton channel at 100 MeV when exceeding 1 pfu. This ALERT was issued for the event under investigation at at 02:52 UT. Ack. for ACE e data, R. Gold, PI

31 Posner, 2007 demonstrates the important possibility of short-term forecasting of the appearance and intensity of solar ion events by means of relativistic electrons measured on satellites. Selected results at: orkshops/2010/Tuesday_pdf/Posner_REl eASE_CCMCWS_final.pdf Even for fastest-rising major proton event on record (Jan. 20, 2005), the electron precursor signal was detected minutes in advance. d. Energetic electron alert.

32 Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) Available at (Posner, 2007)http://costep2.nascom.nasa.gov/ And as a part of integrated Space Weather Analysis System under Heliosphere (Nuňez, 2011), using X rays and higher energy p to forecast E>10 MeV SEP p

33 e. High energy n, gamma from the Sun. On the ground: Solar Neutron Alert: Low altitude satellite(s). Example: CORONAS-F (500 km, polar), SONG. The observation of a broad MeV excess, associated with   decay indicates exact time of energetic p appearance in the solar atmosphere. Kuznetsov,S.N. et al., 2006.

34 Tool for identification of onset time of p acceleration to HE (Kurt et al., 2010; 2011). Main SCR increase is preceeded by statist. signif. precursor at individual NM. SONG on CORONAS-F. h.e. gamma

35 f. Short – term warning of SEP based on position, size of flare. (Laurenza et al., 2009) developed a technique to provide short-term warnings of SEP events that meet or exceed the Space Weather Prediction Center threshold of J (>10 MeV) = 10 # cm (-2) s (-1) sr (-1). The method is based on flare location, size, and evidence of particle acceleration/escape as parameterized by flare longitude, time-integrated soft X-ray intensity, and of type III radio emission 1 MHz, respectively. In this technique, warnings are issued 10 min after the maximum of >= M2 soft X-ray flares. (Veselovsky and Yakovchuk, 2011) - analysis and comparison to the 2001– 2006 observations indicate that more than 50% of SEP were omitted if only NM warning is used for forecast. Higher reliability requires using additional data on the state of solar and heliospheric activity. (Valach et al., 2011) used the ANN method to forecast SEP using data on X ray flares (class, position), on radio emissions (type II or IV radio bursts) and on CME (position angle, width of the CME, linear speed). The output was the forecasted flux of energetic protons ( > 10MeV).

36 Data downloaded from site prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Energy spectra of recent GLEs e.g. by (e.g. Vashenyuk et al., 2011; Adriani et al., 2012)

37 Power spectra of Oulu and Kiel NMs constructed from daily means of pressure- corrected data for the period from day 92 of year 1964 until the end of year d 3. quasi-periodic variations observed in cosmic rays : information for space-weather related effects in the neighborhood of Earth.

38 ~1.7 years. In CR reported first by (Valdes-Galicia et al., 1996), analyzed by WV (Kudela et al, 2002), found in outer heliosphere Voyager (Kato et al., 2003). Using NM data Calgary and Deep River (Kudela et al., 1991) indicated that a 20m peak occurs, as well as a spectrum instability in the neighborhood of periods m. (Okhlopkov, 2011) reports that length of the q-2 year periodicity in even and odd numbered cycles differs by ~2 m. In cycles 20 and 22, T = 22–23.5 m, in 21 and 23, T = 20.2–20.8 m. (Mendoza et al., 2006) analyzing solar magnetic fluxes in the period 1971–1998 found that ~ 1.7 year is the dominant fluctuation for all the types of fluxes analyzed (total, closed, open, low and high latitude open fluxes) and has a strong tendency to appear during the descending phase of solar activity. (Rouillard and Lockwood, 2004) relate a strong 1.68-year oscillation in GCR fluxes to a corresponding oscillation in the open solar magnetic flux and infer CR propagation paths confirming the predictions of theories in which drift is important in modulating the CR flux. (Charvátová, 2007)

39 Spectral analysis of surface atmospheric electricity data (42 years of Potential Gradient, PG at Nagycenk, Hungary) showed also ~1.7 year q-per (Harrison and Märcz, 2007). ~1.7 year periodicity in the PG data is present 1978 – 1990, but absent in 1963 – 1977.

40 Monthly means of mod. parameter (Usoskin et al., 2011) Wavelet Morlet, 1 – 2 years period. Cross section at ~1.7 y, profile ~ 1986 ~1.7 y 1986 ~1.7 yr ~2.2 yr 2.3 y reported by (Mavromichalaki et al., 2005) in coronal index from coronal stations (Rybanský, 1975). QBO (Laurenza et al., 2012)

41 Monthly means of mod. potential parameter CR (Usoskin et al., 2011) Wavelet Morlet, 1 – 2 years period. Cross section at ~1.3 y, profile ~ 1946 ~1.3 y (Mursula and Zieger, 2000) found ~1.3-year variation in solar wind speed and geomagnetic activity. solar magnetic fields since 1915 have been inferred from H-alpha filament observations by (Obridko and Shelting, 2007) ~ 1.3 yr q-per oscillations detected in the Sun during 8 cycles.

42 ~11 yr ~22 yr~5.5 yr ~8.2 yr~6.4 yr ~14 yr Lomb-Scargle Periodogram of Climax NM indicates several quasi-periodicities at very low frequency. q-per below ~11 year reported by different methods from data by (Mavromichalaki et al., 2003). Periodicities 11 and 22 y described e.g. by (Venkatesan and Badruddin, 1990)

43 ~156 d ~150 d Probably fine structure ~ d, wavelet analysis needed (Chowdhury et al., 2010) found several intermediate-term q-per in solar activity characteristics and in CR. Period days was found prominent during ascending phase of cycle 23 in both galactic CR and solar indices. Detailed studies of ~156 d q- per in various time series of solar activity recently (Akimov and Belkina, 2012)

44 Fluences of p, e have different time profiles, / d 40 d~ 27 d ~ d Q-per in GCR, ssn, coronal index before p arrival from Sun – analyzed for many GLE by (Perez-Peraza et al., 2011)

45 Three cycle trend in the CR data discussed by (Ahluwalia, 2011) seems to be present in the periodogram constructed from data (Usoskin et al, 2011) : ~ 32 years

46 ~ 30 yr q-per in AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations) – (Perez-Peraza et al., 2008) In CR (direct measurements): (Ahluwalia, 1997). Data from stratospheric CR measurements (Stozhkov et al., 2007; 2011) – monthly ~34 y ~ 11 y ~14.8 y

47 Wavelet, using filter. Climax data, variable structure, two peaks, at ~27 and ~30-31 d, similar to Fig. 10 by (Dunzlaff et al., 2008) for GCR, EPHIN on SOHO. Transport models (Gil et al., 2005), measurements (Richardson, 2004). This method (WSD, Morlet) provides fine structure. ~27 d and harmon ics ~27 d CR variation correlates with B, Bz, v, and B(v x B) – (Agarwal et al., 2011). 1952

48 (Gil and Alania, 2011; 2012) reported the 3 – 4 cycling structure of ~ 27 day q-per amplitude in NM data. (Sabbah and Kudela, 2012 in preparation) indicate the ~3 Carrington rotation quasi- periodicity is significant even at higher energies of primaries. ~ ~0.32

49 (Modzelewska and Alania, 2011) – 3D model of ~ 27 day CR variations and indicate this variation of the GCR intensity for di ff erent polarity periods of the solar magnetic cycle are compatible with the NM data. Checking linear cor. To IMF, solar activity, tilt angle, Climax. CHA – derived from green corona line (Rybanský et al., 2001)

50 ~13.5 d. (Krymsky et al., 2008) …temporal change of the power spectrum of and 27-day variations repeats the power spectrum change of the number of sunspots and tilt angle of the current sheet. The dependence of 27-day variation on the polarity of general magnetic field of the Sun is not found. (Vieira et al., 2012) – double structure of ~ 13.5 d per. at muon detector. 1952)

51 Important for SpW studies is to compare q-per of CR with those of solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic characteristics. Discriminating between solar and cosmic ray forcing on the terrestrial climate (Fichtner et al., 2006). Solar, geomagnetic and IMF parameters recently analyzed by (Katsavrias et al., 2012) by wavelet and the L/S periodogram identified the ~27 day per. (with ~13.5 days being its harmonic) in solar wind parameters, in Bx, By, and the geomagnetic indices. 1–1.4 yr range of per. in the geomagnetic indices, IMF, Vsw, T was also identified. The QBO (1.7–2.2 years), along with its harmonics of ~4 and 8 years, in all solar wind parameters, apart from IMF, and in geomagnetic indices, are reported. In cycle 22 the periodicities were more clearly defined than in the rest of the observation period, with well pronounced spectral peaks. Mid-term q-per (range 1-2 years) in sunspot groups and flare index has shown differences in the solar hemispheres (Mendoza and Velasco-Herrera 2011). Recently (Vecchio et al., 2012) - detail analysis of different components of heliomagnetic field for QBO are also identified as a fundamental timescale of variability of the magnetic field and associated with poleward magnetic flux migration from low lat. around the maximum and descending phase of solar cycle.

52 4. Summary, suggestions for future. -Relativistic electron variability, its relation to SW “prehistory”, tool for checking the geomagnetic field models and its variability during active intervals – inputs for models. -Magnetospheric transmissivity, its variations during active periods along with the anisotropy in IP space requires to be utilized simultaneously in analysis of SpW events. -Fluctuations of CR – tool for checking IMF inhomogenities. Jointly with high geometrical factors satellite measurements (INTEGRAL, LISA etc.) and with high statistical acurracy of Scaler (if better time resolution available). -Alerts of geoeffective events using NM and GMDN network: case and statistical studies. New measurement devices, importance of joint study with solar physicists. -Alerts of SEP events: existing systems on satellites – need for joining effort with NM high temporal resolution, progress in networking, real time alerts. -q-periodic variations in CR time profiles: 3 solar cycle periodicity both in stratospheric and mod. parameter long time data; empirical dependence of (averaged) ~27 d q-per on solar and IP activity parameters; ~3 cycle periodicity (~27d) present in CR to high energies; fine structure of q-periodicities; difference in q-per in daily fluences of relat. e and p.

53 Adriani, O. et al., Observations of the December 13 and 14, 2006, Solar Particle Events in the 80 MeV/n - 3 GeV/n range from space with PAMELA detector, Astrophys. J., doi: / X/742/2/102, Agarwal, R., R.K. Mishra, S.K. Pandey and P.K. Selot, 27-day variation of cosmic rays along with interplanetary parameters,, Proc. 32nd ICRC Beijing, paper icrc0129, Ahluwalia, H.S. Three activity cycle periodicity in galactic cosmic rays? Proc. 25th Int. Cosmic Ray Conf., Durban, South Africa, 2, , Ahluwalia, H.S. Timelines of cosmic ray intensity, Ap, IMF, and sunspot numbers since 1937, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A12106, doi: /2011JA017021, Akimov, L.A. and I.L. Belkina, Rieger QuasiPeriodicity in Solar Indices, Solar System Research, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 243–252, Alexeev I.I., V.V. Kalegaev, E.S. Belenkaya, S. Yu. Bobrovnikov, Ya.I. Feldstein, L.I., Gromova, J. Geophys. Res., 2001, V.106, No A11, P. 25,683-25,694, Anashin, V., A. Belov, E. Eroshenko et al., The ALERT signal of ground level enhancemens of solar cosmic rays: physics basis, the ways of realization and development, Proc. 31st ICRC, Lodz, icrc1104, Angelov, I.I., E. S. Malamova, J. N. Stamenov, Muon Telescopes at Basic Environmental Observatory Moussala and South-West University – Blagoevgrad, Sun and Geosphere, 3(1): 20 – 25, References.

54 Antonova, E.E., I.M. Myagkova, M.V. Stepanova et al., Local particle traps in the high latitude magnetosphere and the acceleration of relativistic electrons. J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 73, 1465–1471, doi: /j.jastp , Badruddin.. Baker, D.N., J.H. Allen, S.G. Kanekal, and G.D. Reeves, Disturbed space environment may have been related to pager satellite failure, Eos, Transactions, AGU, 79(40), 477, Oct 6, Balikhin, M.A., R.J. Boynton, S.N. Walker et al., Using the NARMAX approach to model the evolution of energetic electrons fluxes at geostationary orbit, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18105, 5 PP., doi: /2011GL048980, Belov, A.V., L.I. Dorman, N. Iucci, O. Kryakunova and I. Ptitsyna, The relation of high- and low- orbit satellite anomalies to different geophysical parameters, in Effects of Space Weather on Technology Infrastructure edited by Ioannis A. Daglis, Kluwer, , Bothmer, V. and I.A. Daglis, Space Weather- Physics and Effects, Springer, Praxis Publ. Co., Chichester, UK, Bieber, J.W. et al, AOGS 3rd Ann. Meeting, Singapore, July Braga, C.R., A. Dal Lago, M. Rockenbach et al., Precursor signatures of the storm sudden commencement in 2008, ICRC Beijing, Charvátová, I., 2007 The prominent 1.6-year periodicity in solar motion due to the inner planets, Annales Geophysicae, 25, 1-6., Chilingarian, A., G. Hovsepyan, K. Arakelyan et al., Space Environmental Viewing and Analysis Network (SEVAN), Earth Moon Planet, DOI /s , 2009.

55 Chowdhury, P., M. Khan, P.C. Ray, Evaluation of the intermediate-term periodicities in solar and cosmic ray activities during cycle 23, Astrophys. Space Sci., 326, , Chowdhury, P., K. Manoranjan, and P.C. Ray, Evaluation of the intermadiate-term periodicities in solar and cosmic ray activities during cycle 23, Astrophys. Space Sci., 326, , Dasso, S., H. Asorey for Pierre Auger, The scaler mode in the Pierre Auger observatory to study heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays, Adv. Space Res. 49, 11, , 1 June De Mendonça, R.R.S., J.-P. Raulin, F.C.P. Bertoni et al., Long-term and transient time variation of cosmic ray fluxes detected in Argentina by CARPET cosmic ray detector, J. Atmos. and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 73, 11–12, , July Dhanju, M.S. and V.A. Sarabhai, Short-period variations of cosmic – ray intensity, Phys. Rev. Lett., 19, 5, Dorman L.I., Geophysical and Astrophysical Aspects of Cosmic Rays. North- Holland Publ. Co., Amsterdam ( In series "Progress in Physics of Cosmic Ray and Elementary Particles", ed. J.G. Wilson and S.A. Wouthuysen, Vol. 7), pp 320., Dorman, L.I. Monitoring and forecasting of great radiation hazards for spacecraft and aircrafts by online cosmic ray data, Ann. Geophys. 23, 3019–3026, Dorman, L.I., A.V. Belov, E.A. Eroshenko et al, Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites, Adv. Space Res., , Dorman, L.I., and I.Y. Libin, Short-period variations in cosmic ray intensity, Soviet Phys. Uspekhi, 28, , 1985.

56 Dunzlaff, P., B. Heber, A. Kopp et al., Observations of recurrent cosmic ray decerases during solar cycles 22 and 23, Ann. Geophys., 26, , ECSS-E-ST-10-04C, Space engineering, Space environment, ESA, 15 November Fichtner, H., K. Scherer, and B. Heber, A criterion to discriminate between solar and cosmic ray forcing of the terrestrial climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 6, 10811–10836, Flückiger, E.O., ECRS 2004, Fushishita, A., T. Kuwabara, C. Kato et al., Precursors of the Forbush decrease on 2006 December 14 Observed with the GMDN, Astrophys. J., doi: / X/715/2/1239, Gil, A., K. Iskra, R. Modzelewska and M.V. Alania, On the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy and intensity for different periods of solar magnetic cycle, Adv. Space Res., 35, , Gil, A. and M.V. Alania, Cycling Changes in the Amplitudes of the 27-Day Variation of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity, Solar Phys., 278:447–455, DOI /s , Gil, A. and M.V. Alania, The rigidity spectrum of the harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity: 1965– , J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 73, , Grimani, C., C. Boatella, M. Chmeissani et al., On the role of radiation monitors on board LISA Pathfinder and future space interferometers, Class. Quantum Grav. 29, (13pp) doi: / /29/10/105001, 2012.

57 Harrison, R.G., and F. Märcz, Heliospheric timescale identified as in surface atmospheric electricity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23816, 2007GL031714, Hasebe, N., Sukurai, K., Hareyama, M., et al., Variations of the Radiation Belts Energetic Particles after the July 22–30, 2004 Magnetic Storms, Physics of Auroral Phenomena. Proc. XXXI Annual Seminar, Apatity, Hippler, R., A. Mengel, F. Jansen et al., “First Space weather Observations at MuSTAnG — the Muon Space weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald”, in: Proceedings of the 30th ICRC, Merida, Mexico, 2007, v. 1, pp , Iucci, N., L.I. Dorman, A.E. Levitin et al., Spacecraft operational anomalies and space weather impact hazards, Adv. Space Res., 37, 184–190, Kane, R.P., Severe geomagnetic storms and Forbush decreases: interplanetary relationships reexamined, Ann. Geophys., 28, , Kato, C. K. Munakata, S. Yasue, K. Inoue and F.B. McDonald, A ~1.7-year quasi-periodicity in cosmic ray intensity variation observed in the outer heliosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 1367, 7 pp, doi: /2003JA009897, Katsavrias, Ch., P. Preka-Papadema, X. Moussas, Wavelet Analysis on Solar Wind Parameters and Geomagnetic Indices, arXiv: v1, in press, Sol. Phys Klein, K. – L. and R. Bütikofer, The first relativistic solar particle event of the present activity cycle observed by the network of neutron monitors,

58 Kovtyukh, A.S., Storm Deviations of the Geomagnetic Trap Core from Dipole Configuration Deduced from Data on Relativistic Electrons, Cosmic Res., Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 226–232, Kozlov, V.I., A.I. Kuzmin and G.F. Krymsky, Cosmic ray variations with periods less than 12 hours, in Proc. 13th ICRC, 2, Denver, , Kozlov, V.I. and V.V. Kozlov, Galactic Cosmic Ray Fluctuation Parameter as an Indicator of the Degree of Magnetic Field Inhomogeneity, Geomagn. Aeron., 51, 2, 187–197, Krymsky, G.F., V.P. Mamrukova, P.A. Krivoshapkin, S.K. Gerasimova, S.A. Starodubtsev, Recurrent variations in the high-energy cosmic ray intensity. Proc. 30th ICRC, Mexico, v.1, , Kudela, K., D. Venkatesan and R. Langer, Variability of Cosmic Ray Power Spectra, J. Geomagnet. Geoelectr., 48, , Kudela, K., M. Storini, M.Y. Hofer and A. Belov: Cosmic rays in relation to space weather, Space Sciences Series of ISSI, Vol. 10, , pp. 424, Kudela, K., J. Rybak, A. Antalova, and M. Storini, Time evolution of low-frequency periodicities in cosmic ray intensity. Sol. Phys., 35, pp , Kudela, K., Cosmic Ryas and spece waether: direct and indirect relations, in D’Olivo J.C., G. Medina-Tanco, J.F. Valdes-Galicia, eds. Proc. 30th ICRC, Merida, Mexico, 6, , Kudela K., Bucik R., Bobik P., On transmissivity of low energy cosmic rays in disturbed magnetosphere, Adv. Space Res., 42, 7, , Kudela, K. and M. Storini, Cosmic ray variability and geomagnetic activity: a statistical study, Adv. Space Res., J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 67, 10, 907–912, Kudela, K., D. Venkatesan and R. Langer, Variability of cosmic ray power spectra, J. Geom. Geoelectr., 48, , 1996.

59 Kurt, V.G., Yushkov B.Yu., Belov, A. V., On the Ground Level Enhancement Beginning, Astron. Lett., Vol. 36, No. 7, pp. 520–530, Kurt, V.G., Yushkov, B. Yu., Belov, A., Chertok, I., Grechnev, V. A Relation between Solar Flare Manifestations and the GLE Onset, Proc. 32nd ICRC, paper 441, Kuwabara, T., J.W. Bieber, J. Clem et al., Real-time cosmic ray monitoring system for space weather, Space Weather, 4, S08001, doi: /2005SW000204, 2006a. Kuwabara, T., J.W. Bieber, J. Clem et al., Development of a ground level enhancement alarm system based upon neutron monitors, Space Weather, 4, S10001, doi: /2006SW000223, 2006b. Kuwabara, T., J.W. Bieber, P. Evenson et al., Determination of interplanetary coronal mass ejection geometry and orientation from ground-based observations of galactic cosmic rays, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A05109, 10 PP., doi: /2008JA013717, Kuznetsov, S.N., V.G. Kurt, B. Yu., I.M. Myagkova et al., Proton acceleration during 20 January 2005 solar flare, CAOSP, 26, 2, 85-92, Laurenza, M., E.W. Cliver, J. Hewitt et al., A technique for short-term warning of solar energetic particle events based on flare location, flare size, and evidence of particle escape, Space Weather, 7, S04008, doi: /2007SW000379, Laurenza, M., A. Vecchio, M. Storini and V. Carbone, Quasi-biennal modulation of galactic cosmic rays, Astrophys. J., 749, 167, doi: / X/749/2/167, 2012

60 Lazutin, L., M. Panasyuk and N. Hasebe, Acceleration and losses of energetic protons and electrons during magnetic storm on August 30-31, 2004, Cosmic Res., 49, 1, 35, Lazutin, L., On radiation belt dynamics during magnetic storms, Adv. Space Res., 49, , Lazutin, L., E.A. Muravieva, K. Kudela, M. Slivka, Verification of Magnetic Field Models Based on Measurements of Solar Cosmic Ray Protons in the Magnetosphere, Geomagn. Aeron., 51, 2, 198–209, Leerungnavarat, K., D. Ruffolo and J.W. Bieber, Loss Cone Precursors to Forbush Decreases and Advance Warning of Space Weather Effects, Astrophys. J., 593: , August 10, Maghrabi, A.H. H. Al Harbi, Z.A. Al-Mostafa et al., The KACST muon detector and its application to cosmic-ray variations studies, J. Adv. Space Res., doi: /j.asr , in press, Mavromichalaki, H., B. Petropoulos, C. Plainaki et al., Coronal index as a solar activity index applied to space weather, Adv. Space Res., 35, 410–415, Mavromichalaki, H., G. Souvatzoglou, C. Sarlanis et al., Space weather prediction by cosmic rays, Adv. Space Res. 37, 1141–1147, Mavromichalaki, H., P. Preka-Papadema, B. Petropoulos et al., Low- and high-frequency spectral behavior of cosmic ray intensity for the period , Ann. Geophys., 21, , 2003.

61 Mavromichalaki, H., V. Yanke, L. Dorman et al., Neutron Monitor Network in Real Time and Space Weather, in Effects of Space Weather on Technology Infrastructure edited by Ioannis A. Daglis, Kluwer, , Mavromichalaki, H., G. Souvatzoglou, Ch. Sarlanis et al., Using the real-time Neutron Monitor Database to establish an Alert signal, Proc. 31st ICRC, Lodz, paper icrc 1381, Mavromichalaki, H., A. Papaioannou, C. Plainaki et al., Applications and usage of the real-time Neutron Monitor Database, Adv. Space Res., 47, 12, , Mavromichalaki, H et al., Solar Radiation Storm issued in real-time by the Athens Neutron Monitor Alert Code operated via NMDB, May 15, ] Mendoza, B., V.M. Velasco and J.F. Valdes-Galicia, Mid-Term Periodicities in the Solar Magnetic Flux, Sol. Phys., 233, 2, , DOI: /s , Mendoza, B. and Velasco-Herrera, V.M., On Mid-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Groups and Flare Index, Sol. Phys., 271, 169–182, DOI /s x, Mishev, A., Stamenov, J., Resent status and further possibilities for space weather studies at BEO Moussala. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 70 (2e4), 680e685, 2008.

62 Modzelewska, R. and M.V. Alania, Dependence of the 27-day variation of cosmic rays on the global magnetic field of the Sun, Adv. Space Res., doi: /j.asr , Miroshnichenko, L.I., Radiation hazard in space, Astrophysics and Space Science Library, vol. 297, Kluwer, pp. 238, Mulligan, T., J. B. Blake, D. Shaul et al., Short-period variability in the galactic cosmic ray intensity: High statistical resolution observations and interpretation around the time of a Forbush decrease in August 2006, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A07105, doi: /2008JA013783, 2009 Mursula, K., Zieger, B. The 1.3-year variation in solar wind speed and geomagnetic activity. Adv. Space Res., 25, 9, 1939–1942, Nuňez, M. Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV), Space Weather, 9, S07003, doi: /2010SW000640, Nymmik R.A. Extremely large solar high-energy particle events: occurrence probability and characteristics, Adv. Space Res. 40, , Obridko, V.N. and B.D. Shelting, Occurrence of the 1.3-year periodicity in the large-scale solar magnetic field for 8 solar cycles, Advances in Space Research 40, 1006–1014, Okhlopkov, V.P., Distinctive properties of the frequency spectra of cosmic ray variations and parameters of solar activity and the interplanetary medium in solar cycles 20–23, Moscow University Phys. Bull., 66, 1, , DOI: /S , 2011.

63 Oh, S.Y., J.W. Bieber, J. Clem et al., Neutron Monitor Forecasting of Radiation Storm Intensity, Proc. 31st ICRC, Lodz, p. icrc0602, Oh, S.Y., Y. Yi, J. W. Bieber, P. Evenson and Y. K. Kim, Characteristics of solar proton events associated with GLEs, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A10107, doi: /2009JA015171, Panasyuk, M.I., Cosmic Rays and Radiation Hazards for Space Missions, in Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards, ed. By I.A. Daglis, NATO Science Ser , Panasyuk, M.I., The Ion Radiation Belts: Experiments and Models, in Effects of Space Weather on Technology Infrastructure edited by Ioannis A. Daglis, Kluwer, 65-90, Papailiou, M., H. Mavromichalaki, A. Belov et al., Precursor Effects in Different Cases of Forbush Decreases, Solar Phys., 276:337–350, DOI /s , 2012a. Papailiou, M., H. Mavromichalaki, A. Belov et al., The Asymptotic Longitudinal Cosmic Ray Intensity Distribution as a Precursor of Forbush Decreases, Solar Phys., DOI /s , 2012b. Perez-Peraza, J., V. Velasco and S. Kavlakov, Wavelet coherence analysis of Atlantic hurricanes and cosmic rays, Geofísica Internacional 47, 3, , Pérez-Peraza, J.A., V. M. Velasco-Herrera, J. Zapotitla, L. I. Miroshnichenko, and E. V. Vashenyuk, Search for Periodicities in Galactic Cosmic Rays, Sunspots and Coronal Index Before Arrival of Relativistic Protons from the Sun, Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics, 2011, Vol. 75, No. 6, pp. 767–769, 2011.

64 . Posner, A. Up to 1-hour forecasting of radiation hazards from solar energetic ion events with relativistic electrons, Space Weather, 5, S05001, 28 PP., doi: /2006SW000268, Reeves, G. D., S.K. Morley, R.H.W. Friedel et al., On the relationship between relativistic electron flux and solar wind velocity: Paulikas and Blake revisited, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A02213, doi: /2010JA015735, Riazantseva, M.O., I.N. Myagkova, M.V. Karavaev et al., Enhanced energetic electron fluxes at the region of the auroral oval during quiet geomagnetic conditions November 2009, Adv. Space Res., doi: Richardson, I.G., Energetic Paricles and Corotating Interaction Regions in the Solar Wind, Space Sci. Rev., 111, , Rockenbach, M., A. Dal Lago, W.D. Gonzalez et al., Geomagnetic storm's precursors observed from 2001 to 2007 with the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), Geophys. Res. Let. 38, L16108, 4 PP., doi: /2011GL048556, Rouillard, A. and M. Lockwood, Oscillations in the open solar magnetic flux with a period of 1.68 years: imprint on galactic cosmic rays and implications for heliospheric shielding, Ann. Geophys., 22, , Ruffolo, D., Transport and Acceleration of Energetic Charged Particles near an Oblique Shock, Astrophys. J., 515, 2, 787, doi: /307062, 1999.

65 Rybanský, M. Coronal index of solar activity. I - Line 5303 A, Bull. Astron. Inst. Czech. 26, 367–377, Rybanský, M., V. Rušin and M. Minarovjech, Coronal Index of Solar Activity, Space Sci. Rev. 95, , Sdobnov, V. Ye., Analysis of the Forbush effect in May 2005 using the spectrographic global survey method, Bull. Russian Acad. Sci.: Physics, 75, 6, , Singh, A.K., Devendraa Siingh and R.P. Singh, Space Weather: Physics, Effects and Predictability, Surv. Geophys., 31, , DOI: /s , Scherer, K., H. Fichtner, B. Heber, U. Mall (eds), Space Weather, The Physics Behind a Slogan, Springer, Starodubtsev, S.A., I.G. Usoskin and K. Mursula, Rapid cosmic ray fluctuations: Evidence for cyclic behaviour, Sol. Phys., 224, 335/343, Starodubtsev, S.A., I. G. Usoskin, A. V. Grigoryev, and K. Mursula, Long-term modulation if the cosmic ray fluctuation spectrum, Ann. Geophys., 24, , Storini, M., The Relevance of Cosmic Rays to Space and Earth Weather, ECRS 2006, Lisbon.

66 Stozhkov, Y. I., N.S. Svirzhevsky, G.A. Bazilevskaya et al., Cosmic rays in the stratosphere in ,Astrophys. Space Sci. Trans., 7, ,doi: /astra , Stozhkov, Y.I., N.S. Svirzhevsky, G.A. Bazilevskaya et al, Fluxes of Cosmic Rays in the maximum of absorption curve in the atmosphere and at the atmosphere boundary ( ), preprint FIAN, 14, Tyasto, M.I., O. A. Danilova, V. M. Dvornikov and V. E. Sdobnov, Strong Cosmic Ray Cutoff Rigidity Decreases during Great Magnetospheric Disturbances, Bull. Russian Acad. Sci., Physics, 73, 3, 367–369, Tyasto, M.I., O. A. Danilova, and V. E. Sdobnov, Variations in the Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity of CR in the Period of Magnetospheric Disturbances of May 2005: Their Correlation with Interplanetary Parameters, Bull. Russian Acad. Sci., Physics, 75, 6, 808–811, Tylka, A. J., Dietrich, W. F. and Boberg, P. R., Probability distributions of high-energy solar-heavy- ion fluxes from IMP-8: , IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci., vol. 44, no. 6, pp. 2140–2149, Dec Usoskin, I.G., G.A. Bazilevskaya, G.A. Kovaltsov, Solar modulation parameter for cosmic rays since 1936 reconstructed from ground-based neutron monitors and ionization chambers, JGR, 116, A02104, 9 PP., doi: /2010JA016105, Valach F., M. Revallo, P. Hejda, J. Bochníček, Predictions of SEP events by means of a linear filter and layer-recurrent neural network, Acta Astronautica, 69, 758–766, Valach, F., M. Revallo, J. Bochníček, and P. Hejda, Solar energetic particle flux enhancement as a predictor of geomagnetic activity in a neural network-based model, Space Weather, 7, S04004, doi: /2008SW000421, 2009.

67 Valdés-Galicia, J. F., R. Pérez-Enríquez & J.A. Otaola, The cosmic ray 1.68-year variation: a clue to understand the nature of solar cycle?, Sol. Phys., 167, , Vashenyuk, E.V., Yu. V. Balabin, and B. B. Gvozdevsky, Features of relativistic solar proton spectra derived from ground level enhancement events (GLE) modeling, Astrophys. Space Sci. Trans., 7, 459–463, doi: /astra , Vecchio, A., M. Laurenza, D. Meduri, V. Carbone and M. Storini, The dynamics of the solar magnetic field: polarity reversals, butterfly diagram, and quasi-biennal oscillations, The Astrophys. J., 749:27 (10 pp), April 10, Venkatesan, D. and Badruddin, Cosmic Ray Intensity Variation in the 3D Heliosphere, Space Sci. Rev. 52, , Veselovsky, I.S. and O. S. Yakovchuk, On Forecasting Solar Proton Events Using a Ground Based Neutron Monitor, Solar System Res., 45, 4, 354–364, Vieira, L.R., A. Dal Lago, N. R. Rigozo et al., Near 13.5-day periodicity in Muon Detector data during late 2001 and early 2002, Adv. Space Res., 49, 11, , Watanabe, T., T. Ogino, F. Abe, and Y. Kadowaki, Cosmic Ray Neutron Data in , CAWSESDB-J-OB0062, STEL, Nagya University, June 2012.

68


Download ppt "Energetic Particles in Space: its role in Space Weather Studies. Karel Kudela IEP SAS Košice, Slovakia ECRS 2012, Moscow July 5, 2012."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google