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NMDB Kiel Meeting, 3-5/12/2008 On the possibility to use on-line one-minute NM data of NMDB network and available from Internet satellite CR data for forecasting of great radiation hazard L.I. Dorman (a, b) (a) Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion and Israel Space Agency, P. O. Box 2217, Qazrin 12900, Israel (b) Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk , Moscow Region, Russia

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Proton events and anomalies Mean satellite anomaly frequencies in 0- and 1-days of proton enhancements in dependence on the maximal > 10 MeV flux

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Proton events and anomalies Probability of any anomaly ( high altitude – high inclination group) in dependence on the maximal proton > 10 and >60 MeV flux

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FORECAST STEPS 1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA 2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS 3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION 4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED FEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS 5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA IN THE FRAME OF ISOTROPIC MODE 6. USING TWO OR THREE NMDB STATIONS IN THE FRAME OF ISOTROPIC MODE 7. BASING ON ANISOTROPIC AND KINETIC MODE OF PROPAGATION: USING DATA OF ABOUT ALL NMDB STATIONS

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1.1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA

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1.2. SCHEME OF ALHORITHMS FOR “FEP ON-LINE SEARCH”

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1.3. THE PROBABILITY OF FALSE ALARMS

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1.4. THE PROBABILITY OF MISSED TRIGGERS 10% ~7 , , The probability of this negative fluctuation in one channel in one minute is equal The probability of missed trigger for two successive minutes of observation simultaneously in two channels is 4 times larger:. It means that missed trigger is expected one per about events.

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1.6. EXAMPLE OF INTERNET PRESENTATION OF REAL TIME DATA FROM ESO (ISRAEL)

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2.1. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS

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2.2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS

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3.1. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (1-st CASE: K(R) DOES NOT DEPEND FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

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3.2 DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (1-st CASE: K(R) DOES NOT DEPEND FROM DISTANCE TO SUN)

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3.3 DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (1-st CASE: K(R) DOES NOT DEPEND FROM DISTANCE TO SUN)

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3.4 DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

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3.5 DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

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4.1 FORECASTING OF EXPECTED FEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS (2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

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5.1. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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5.2. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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5.3. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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5.4. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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5.5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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5.6. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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5.7. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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5.8. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

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Forecasting of expected FEP fluency for.

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CONCLUSIONS 1. BY ONE-MINUTE NEUTRON MONITOR DATA WE DETERMINE AUTOMATICALLY THE BEGINNING OF BIG SOLAR CR INCREASINGS AND GIVE IN INTERNET THE ALARM IN REAL TIME. 2. WE SHOW THAT THE PROBABILITY OF FALSE AND MISSED ALERTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE. 3. BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS FOR EACH MINUTE OF DATA WE DETERMINE ENERGY SPECTRUM OF SOLAR CR IN THE SPACE AND THE CHANGE OF CUT-OFF RIGIDITY (CHARACTERIZED THE CHANGE OF RING CURRENT IN MAGNETOSPHERE). 4. WE DETERMINE THE TIME OF EJECTION, DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT AND SOURCE FUNCTION BY NM DATA IN HIGH ENERGY REGION.

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CONCLUSIONS 5. BY ONE-MINUTE NM AND AVAILABLE FROM NTERNET COSMIC RAY SATELLITE DATA WE DETERMINE ALL ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS FOR BROAD CR SPECTRUM FROM HIGH TO VERY LOW ENERGIES. 6. BY COMBINING OF NM AND SATELLITE DATA FOR MIN OBSERVATIONS IS POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THE TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION, AND DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT IN DEPENDENCE FROM ENERGY AND DISTANCE FROM THE SUN. 7. IT IS SHOWN THAT BY THIS METHOD IS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST OF SOLAR CR FLUXES AND FLUENCY IN HIGH AND LOW ENERGY RANGES UP TO ABOUT TWO DAYS. 8. SEPTEMBER 1989 EVENT IS USED AS A TEST CASE.

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CONCLUSIONS 9. REALLY OFTEN THE BEGINNINGG OF GLE IS VERY ANISOTROPIC AND FOR THIS STAGE IS NECESSARY TO USE MODE OF PROPAGATION BASED ON ANISOTROPIC DIFFUSION AND KINETIC APPROACH, BUT AFTER MIN DISTRIBUTION BECAME ISOTROPIC (SECOND STAGE) 10. BECOUSE MAIN PART OF RADIATION HAZARD IS FORMATTED MOSTLY DURING DIFFUSION STAGE, IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT WILL GIVE THE FIRST STAGE FOR FORECASTING OF EXPECTED SOLAR CR FLUXES AND ESTIMATION EXPECTED RADIATION HAZARD 11. I THINK THAT THE FIRST STAGE IS NOT SO IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT, BUT IT IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING ACCELERATION MODE, ENERGY SPECTRUM IN SOURCE, AND THERFORE FOR ESTIMATION OF TOTAL RADIATION HAZARD 12. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY TO INCREASE EFFECTIVITY OF FORECASTING: IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO SEPARATE STATIONS WHICH MEASURE DIRECT FLUX (ABOUT WITHOUT SCATTERING) AND OTHER STATIONS WHICH MEASURE ONLY DIFFUSION STAGE. THEY WILL GIVE VERY IMPRTANT DIFFERENT INFORMATION ON SOURCS FUNCTION AND PROPAGATION MODE, RESPECTIVELY

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CONCLUSIONS 13. AS THE FIRST STEP WE MUST USE IN EACH NMDB STATION THE AUTOMATICAL PROGRAE FOR DETERMINING OF BEGINNING GLE 14. WE WILL TRAINING TO MADE FORECAST BY USING TWO OR THREE NMDB STATIONS WHICH HAVE DIFFERENT MULTIPLICITIES AND/OR DIFFERENT CUTOFF RIGIDITIES

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