Presentation on theme: "Cosmic Ray Using for Monitoring and Forecasting Dangerous Solar Flare Events Lev I. Dorman (1, 2) 1. Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio."— Presentation transcript:
Cosmic Ray Using for Monitoring and Forecasting Dangerous Solar Flare Events Lev I. Dorman (1, 2) 1. Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion, and Israel Space Agency; Qazrin, ISRAEL. 2. Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow region, RUSSIA E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org ERICE, JULY 2004
Satellite and Anomaly Number ~300 satellites ~6000 satellite malfunctions
Period with big number of satellite malfunctions Upper panel – cosmic ray activity near the Earth: variations of 10 GV cosmic ray density; solar proton (> 10 MeV and >60 MeV) fluxes. Lower panel – geomagnetic activity: Kp- and Dst-indices. Vertical arrows on the upper panel correspond to the malfunction moments.
Proton events and anomalies Mean satellite anomaly frequencies in 0- and 1-days of proton enhancements in dependence on the maximal > 10 MeV flux
Proton events and anomalies Probability of any anomaly ( high altitude – high inclination group) in dependence on the maximal proton > 10 and >60 MeV flux
Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center ESO (Mt. Hermon) Neutron intensity + 8 multiplicities, Pressure, AEF, Temp., Hum., Wind Magnetometer H-magnetic field MAPI Israel Multidurectional muon telescopes on Mt. Hermon and underground Earthquake’s precursors in low energy neutrons (He-3 - detectors) Internet space and CR- network
ESO data input for space weather monitoring and forecasting CR Neutrons flux (minute) CR Multiplicity (energy spectrum) Temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, atmospheric electric field Earth magnetic field (magnetic storms) CR-mesons Solar irradiation Earthquake’s neutrons
ESO data analysis for space weather monitoring and forecasting Automatic search of flare beginning in solar cosmic rays Determination of solar CR source spectrum and diffusion coefficient in space Forecasting of solar CR intensity and fluency Prediction of great geomagnetic storms by CR-network data
Forecast of Solar Flare Particle Events Using Cosmic-Ray Neutron Monitor and Satellite Data: Principles of the Algorithm and its Verification
FORECAST STEPS 1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA 2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS 3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION 4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED FEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS 5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA
1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA THE PROBABILITY OF FALSE ALARMS THE PROBABILITY OF MISSED TRIGGERS
CONCLUSION BY ONE-MINUTE NEUTRON MONITOR DATA AND ONE-MINUTE AVAILABLE FROM INTERNET COSMIC RAY SATELLITE DATA FOR 20-30 MIN DATA IT IS POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THE TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION, AND DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT IN DEPENDENCE FROM ENERGY AND DISTANCE FROM THE SUN. THEN IT IS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST OF FEP FLUXES AND FLUENCY IN HIGH AND LOW ENERGY RANGES UP TO ABOUT TWO DAYS. SEPTEMBER 1989 EVENT IS USED AS A TEST CASE.
Part 1 (Ch. 1-4). CR as object of research and as research instrument Part 2 (Ch. 5-9). Influence of atmospheric processes on CR Part 3 (Ch. 10-14). Influence of CR on atmospheric processes Part 4 (Ch. 15-18). CR research applications Unsolved problems, References, Indexes
Ch. 1 CR as universal phenomenon in the Universe External and Internal CR Different types of CR Astrophysical and Geophysical aspects of CR High Energy Physics of CR Development of CR research Main properties of primary CR
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