1. HSRI: A Methodology for Risk Analysis of the Humanitarian Situation USTA Geneva, April 2008

2. It is not typical to find studies or research focused on the vulnerability present when facing problems that imply a probability of creating a “humanitarian situation” From the traditional differentiation between natural disasters and disasters caused by man, there exists today a complex and dynamic framework for “humanitarian assistance”, in which there are a multitude of dimensions present. USTA What is HSRI and what is it’s purpose?

3. The sheer volume of information requires synthesis and consolidation, in order to permit a holistic analysis. This challenge has led to the need to create a new tool, which in a simple and concise manner can bring together elements related to this risk. USTA As a response to this combination of requirements, it has become necessary to develop mechanisms that allow for the simplification of analysis and allow for improved assistance and budgetary allocation decision-making, with a high degree of objectivity. What is HSRI and what is it’s purpose?

4. Aside from the HSRI calculation, it is possible to calculate 4 sub-indices: 1.Sub-index of Humanitarian Situation Risk due to Social Factors. 2.Sub-index of Humanitarian Situation Risk due to Economic Factors. 3.Sub-index of Humanitarian Situation Risk due to Response Capacity Factors. 4.Sub-index of Humanitarian Situation Risk due to the Conflict. Each of these sub-indices attempts to establish independently the impact of different dimensions, factors and elements linked to the notion of the risk of a humanitarian situation occuring. USTA

5. Following the validation process (Phase II), the HSRI methodology can: 1.Be utilized to compare risk levels in different municipalities of Colombia. 2.Serve as a complementary tool for analysis in decision-making, allowing for the prioritization of humanitarian assistance needs. 3.Promote the development of prevention policies, adjusted for different risk factors that could lead to a humanitarian situation occuring. USTA

6. The HSRI methodology cannot: 1.Indicate a current situation in a municipality, given that it is not structured with real-time information. 2.Replace analysts in the field, who should be consulted regarding humanitarian assistance decision-making and in interpreting the HSRI. 3.Quantify the precise number of persons who are at risk. 4.Substitute a field needs assessment in an area, although it can assist in deciding which municipalities merit the resources required for a needs assessment. USTA

7. HSRI Validation With travel to 6 regions of Colombia, the validation phase of IRSH will: 1.Presentation and discussion in an academic forum. 2.Presentation, group mapping of the situation and response capacity with regional humanitarian actors. 3.Challenge: create long-lasting relationships to maintain validation of new results every 6 months. 4.Production of final user guides to be joined with the larger IRSH study. This requires a coordination in research and validation with academic and non-academic actors.

8. HSRI Projection Based on the HSRI experience in Colombia, it would be possible to: 1.Together with the collection of FO-level databases, develop HSRI in other countries. 2.At the international level, develop HSRI to calculate the probability of a humanitarian situation on a country-by-country basis, using already collected international databases. 3.Challenge: extending the OCHA strategy of collecting data on each country in the world. 4.This approach holds promise if done in conjunction and coordination with academic institutions.