1. I NSIGHT SRI i n s i g h t s t r a t e g y r e s e a r c h i m a g i n a t i o n I NSIGHT SRI No 400, 456-458 The Strand London, WC2R 0DZ United Kingdom iain@insightsri.com +44 (0) 7887 626 375 www.insightsri.com Comparison of FOD v. Runway Incursion Iain McCreary May 2008 1 DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved

2. I NSIGHT SRI Comments: The following pages are a rough sketch of data from one US Airline, taking the actual FOD strikes reported in their maintenance logs for one airport and laying those events against the FAA runway incursion statistics (from Sept 2007). So what? Given that the most severe FOD events are just as serious as an incursion impact in terms of risk to life, this comparison makes sense. FOD is potentially more important in some respects than runway incursions, as the number of actual aircraft strikes due to FOD dwarfs the number of Add to this that the non-life threatening FOD strikes drive significant airline operational costs (Delta says direct expense of $1M-$2M per month on engines alone, with up to 10x that in indirect costs) then FOD detection and control may be something FAA needs to pay ever more attention to Caveats: My FOD data comes from a single airline and a single airport. Generalisations from single source data are dangerous - although that sort of generalisation is exactly what I have done here. I make no guarantees about accuracy. 2 DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved

3. I NSIGHT SRI Insight SRIs proposed FOD event definitions 3 ClassRunway Incursions FOD Events A Separation decreases and participants take extreme action to narrowly avoid a collision, or the event results in a collision. A high risk event that has the potential to threaten life of passengers and crew. Aircraft typically in motion, event noticed by crew and/or others. B Separation decreases and there is a significant potential for a collision. FOD event that causes significant damage to aircraft or airframe, but lives and safety of passengers and crew are not at risk. C Separation decreases, but there is ample time and distance to avoid a potential collision. Smaller damage event that does not significantly affect flight performance or safety, that is only detected after the fact. D Little or no chance of a collision but meets the definition of a runway incursion. FOD that is detected but removed before damage occurs, or detected FOD where there is little or no chance of ingestion/strike. Other An event during which unauthorized or unapproved movement occurs within the movement area or an occurrence in the movement area associated with the operation of an aircraft that affects or could affect the safety of flight. (This subset includes only non-conflict events) Unreported near misses. No of times aircraft pass the FOD which causes the actual Class A, B, and C events above (does not include class D). FAA definitions. Source: FAA Runway Safety Report Sept 2007 Insight SRI Ltd. definitions. No other standard definitions exist within the industry Source: Insight SRI Ltd. DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved

4. I NSIGHT SRI Runway Incursions vs. FOD event frequencies 4 Source: Insight SRI Ltd/ Incursion Frequency from FAA Runway Safety Report, Sept 2006. Note: 2006 data. Normal FAA results averaged over four ears show more Class B events than Class A. # events per million operations runway incursions FOD events DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved

5. I NSIGHT SRI Event distributions In absolute terms, there are ten times more FOD A&B events than Incursion A&B events. However, as a fraction of overall events of that type, serious FOD events are a much smaller proportion of the total than serious incursions Note: None of the incursion events are actual impacts, compared to the FOD A, B and C events all of which are actual aircraft strikes 5 Runway Incursions (FAA data) FOD events (US Airline data) DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved

6. I NSIGHT SRI In terms of actual events, FOD dwarfs Runway Incursions for both the number of actual strikes and for near misses Preceding charts could be interpreted as suggesting that incursions are more important, as incursions have a higher fraction of serious A/B events This apparent difference is due to differences in the definitions, rather than the threat. Incursion A, B, C, D all include near misses. Only a small fraction of Class A incursion events are actual strikes By contrast, with the FOD definitions all of the A, B and C events are actual impacts that cause damage. Charts to the left for actual strikes v near misses demonstrate the severity of the FOD problem 6 # per million operations DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved

7. I NSIGHT SRI Heinrichs triangle FAA, ICAO and other organisations use Heinrichs Triangle (1931, German industrial safety) to model safety events The triangle (also called the threat triangle) is a standard benchmark for estimating the number of unreported events behind every reported accident or infraction 7 1 accident 30 incidents occurring 300 Hazardous Conditions Documented >1,000 unsafe Acts Unrecorded DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved

8. I NSIGHT SRI Heinrichs triangle for FOD in airport operations 8 Actual threat distribution for FOD at one US airport of ~400,000 commercial movements unreported near misses FOD Class D event, or other Hazardous conditions reported Class A & B FOD events Class C FOD events FAA stats for Runway Incursions, scaled to a typical airport 0.1 Class A 0.1 Class B 2 Class C&D 6 unreported events 1 245 551 up to 21,815 Source: Insight SRI Ltd. Triangles are NOT drawn to the same scale, area of FOD triangle is roughly 2,700x larger than the incursion triangle DRAFT Proprietary and Confidential., Not for Distribution. © 2008 Insight SRI Ltd, All Rights Reserved