Middle East in Transition

Middle East in Transition
The Arab-Israeli Conflict

Background to the Arab-Israeli conflict The creation of modern Israel Israel at war Camp David Arab-Israeli negotiations in the 1990s The collapse of the peace process The tenure of Ariel Sharon and the war on terrorism

The Arab-Israeli Conflict One of the most dangerous confrontations in the Middle East Many international actors Many questions Why are the two sides opposed? Why so violent? Why haven’t outside efforts been effective?

Middle East in Transition Background to the conflict
Conflict has been around for thousands of years 586 BCE, the Jewish Kingdom in what is now Israel was conquered by the Babylonians, modern day Iraq – Jews put into slavery 538 BCE, the Persians defeat the Babylonians and many Jews returned to their homeland – start a new state and are independent until 63 BCE 63 BCE, the Jewish kingdom is incorporated into the Roman Empire 70 CE, the Romans destroy the Temple in Jerusalem and the Jewish people are scattered throughout the Roman Empire

From 63 BCE until 1948, no Jewish state During the time between 70 AD and 1948 AD, Arabs and the Islamic religion predominated in the territory – for over 1,000 years the area belonged to an Arab group called the Palestinians The big question then is, “Whose property is it?”

To complicate this question, when large numbers of Jews began returning to Palestine in the 1880s to avoid persecution in Europe, they purchased land from the Palestinians When Israel was created in 1948, the Israelis terminated Palestinian property rights and took over the Arab land The same thing that the Arabs had done roughly 1900 years before – The question still remains “Whose property is it?”

Jewish land ownership in 1947
Desert

Some Arabs and Jews have adopted views that are tolerant of each other; however, others have not and they use their religion to rationalize their hostility - amazing since both Judaism and Islam stem from a common ancestor, Abraham Bottomline: Conflict between Arabs and Jews is long-standing – both sides believe their own unique historical views on the conflict are accurate

Middle East in Transition The Creation of Modern Israel
For almost 1,900 years the Jewish people had no state They became members of the societies where they lived or they maintained their traditional practices and customs and were often persecuted in their adopted homeland As time and persecution went on, some Jews founded a movement to create a Jewish homeland – this was called Zionism Zionism gained little ground until after WW I – Britain used the promise of a homeland to solidify Jewish support for the war Great Britain issued the Balfour Declaration which promised to support a national homeland for the Jewish people in the territory of ancient Israel

Following WW I, the League of Nations gave Great Britain control of Palestine During the 1920s, thousands of Jews moved to Palestine – inflamed anti-Jewish Arab nationalism in Palestine After WW II and the Holocaust, Zionism became an even more powerful force in the world’s Jewish community -many more thousands of Jews migrated to Palestine

Britain was in a difficult situation – how to support a Jewish homeland while protecting their oil and strategic interests Slowed Jewish immigration to Palestine Jews responded with terrorism against the British Britain turns Palestine over to the new United Nations

U.S. and Soviet Union collaborated with the U.N. on a solution – Partition Palestine Jewish state along the Mediterranean and a Palestinian state mostly inland Not a perfect solution and not accepted by everyone, especially the Arabs

With this backing, the Jews in the region moved quickly and proclaimed Israeli independence on May 14, 1948 The U.S. is the first to recognize Israel and the Soviet Union soon followed

Middle East in Transition Israel at War
Almost immediately Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria attacked Israel Israel asks for UN help => four week cease-fire Israel uses time to get weapons from Czechoslovakia Israel counterattacks and pushed the Arabs back into Arab territory Egypt sues for peace and the U.S. arranges a region-wide ceasefire

Israel now occupied the lands set aside for the Palestinians and decided to keep it At least 750,000 Palestinians fled Palestine and moved into squalid refugee camps in surrounding Arab countries Arabs accuse Israel of expansionism Three more major wars will follow

Israeli War of Independence 1948/1949 Forces Losses Egypt 300, ,000 Israel , ,373 (Trans) Jordan 60,000 1,000 Syria 300,000 1,000

1956 – France, Britain and Israel attack Egypt when Egypt threatens to close the Suez Canal and appeared to move closer to the Soviet Cold War Camp U.S. and Soviet Union insisted that France, Britain and Israel withdraw and all three complied with no change in territorial boundaries

Middle East in Transition Israel at War (1956)

Sinai Campaign 1956 Forces Losses Britain 2, Egypt , ,000 France 1, Israel 175, Israeli figures are actual casualties in battle. Figures for the Arab armies are estimates.

1967 – The Six Day War - Arab states surrounding Israel mobilized for war – Israel attacks first and in 6 days wins stunning military victory Israel acquires the Gaza Strip and Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, the Golan Heights from Syria, and Jerusalem and the West Bank of the River Jordan from Jordan After the war Israel agreed to UN Security Council Resolution 242 requiring the return of Arab land acquired during the war in return for Arab acceptance of Israel When the Arabs refuse and declare they will continue to fight Israel, Israel refuses to return the captured territories and begins moving in settlers

Six Day War 1967 Forces Losses Egypt , ,000 Iraq 250,000 2,000 Israel 200, Jordan 60,000 5,000 Syria 300,000 1,000 Israeli figures are actual casualties in battle. Figures for the Arab armies are estimates.

Israel now occupied Arab land – the Sinai had been part of Egypt for 5,000 years Israel had caused thousands of Palestinians to flood into neighboring Arab states and Israel now controlled lands where thousands of Arabs still lived The PLO and Yasser Arafat became the leadership for the liberation of Palestine – terrorism by the PLO will intensify against Israel and countries who support it

Fourth and most recent major Arab-Israeli war was fought in 1973 Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack during the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur Initially very successful – Israel lost a large number of aircraft to new Soviet air defense systems deployed by Egypt – also lost a large number of tanks to new Soviet anti-tank missiles A massive U.S. re-supply gave Israel the equipment to counterattack and repulse the attack

Yom Kippur War 1973 Forces Losses Egypt , ,000 Iraq 400,000 5,000 Israel 200,000 2,688 Jordan 60,000 1,000 Syria 350,000 8,000 Israeli figures are actual casualties in battle. Figures for the Arab armies are estimates.

Unfortunately the counterattack went better than anticipated or desired by the U.S. and the Soviet Union Israeli forces crossed into southern Egypt and moved north to encircle the Egyptian Third Army – it meant the potential destruction of the Egyptian Army and left Cairo open for attack by Israel This led Soviet Union to prepare to deploy an airborne division to Egypt to support the Egyptian army

President Nixon informed the Soviets that Soviet intervention in the conflict would be met by a U.S. response – U.S. nuclear forces were placed on high alert The U.S. convinced the Israelis to halt their attack and eventually to withdraw to the east bank of the Suez In retaliation for the U.S. support to Israel, Arab oil-producing states temporarily stopped shipping oil to the U.S. Led to high gas prices and gas rationing

On the Syrian Front the Israelis counterattacked and pushed the Syrians out of the Golan Heights The Heights are a strategically and tactically important area for the defense of Israel Israel refuses to return them to Syria

Middle East in Transition Camp David
In 1977, President Jimmy Carter proposed a meeting to address the conflicts between Arabs and Jews The new initiative sought to involve the Soviet Union because of their influence with the PLO and radical Arab States Neither Israel nor Egypt were pleased with the proposal to include the Soviets Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat proposed to negotiate directly with Israel and Israel agreed

Sadat hoped that his visit would lead to a peace treaty where Israel would trade captured Egyptian territory for diplomatic recognition, security, and peace Sadat also hoped for some form of self-determination for the Palestinians

Sadat’s visit was a diplomatic success; however, Israel refused to trade land for peace Israel did offer the West Bank and Gaza Strip limited self-rule but not self-determination Israel continued to encourage Israelis to settle in the West Bank

Sadat and the U.S. saw Israel’s refusal as an insult and an effort to undermine UN Resolution 242 Meanwhile many Arabs were angry at Sadat and several Arab states broke diplomatic relations and boycotted trade with Egypt, some Arabs called for Sadat’s assassination

In a last try for peace President Carter invited Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin to Camp David to discuss a peace settlement

In what became known as the Camp David Accords, Begin and Sadat reached agreement on several issues and committed their countries to sign a peace treaty which was accomplished in March 1979 Israel agreed to temporarily freeze new settlements in the Occupied territories, recognize the legitimate rights of the Palestinians and to return the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt – Sinai returned in 1982 Egypt recognized Israel’s right to exist

Unfortunately Egypt was now isolated in the Arab world Even though Begin agreed to recognize the rights of Palestinians and allow them to participate in negotiations, he announced that Israel would never withdraw from the land it acquired in 1967 6 October 1981

Throughout the 1980s and into the 1990s Israel increased its settlement programs on the West Bank As a result, in 1987, Palestinians began the first intifada, an uprising against the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip

Middle East in Transition Arab-Israeli Negotiations in the 1990s
Following the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the U.S. reinitiated efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict Arab negotiators wanted the return of land taken in 1967 (Golan Heights), the end of Israeli settlements, and Palestinian rule in the Occupied Territories (Gaza and West Bank) Israel suggested only limited self-rule and put off discussion of returning the Golan Heights to Syria – some willingness to talk with the PLO

Three events occurred that pushed the Israelis and the Arabs toward peace talks Labor Party in Israel won June 1992 elections and Yitzhak Rabin became the Prime Minister – he pledged to explore every possible avenue toward peace Because of the Persian Gulf War, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait slashed donations to the PLO – PLO money was drying up Many Palestinians were joining Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement that called for the total destruction of Israel and its replacement by an Islamic state – the PLO was losing influence and it was time for Israel to negotiate with the PLO or risk greater confrontations with Hamas

Oslo Accords 1993 After a series of secret negotiations in Oslo, Norway; the Israelis and the PLO exchanged letters recognizing each other’s legitimacy and on September 13 at the invitation of President Clinton, Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and PLO Chairman Arafat signed the Declaration of Principals or Oslo Accords Called for limited Palestinian control of the Gaza Strip and West Bank town of Jericho Called for additional confidence-building steps in the future so that issues like Israeli settlements and the future of Jerusalem can be negotiated The accords also eased tensions between Israel and its two other immediate Arab neighbors, Jordan and Syria

Oslo Accords 1993 Many Palestinians, Arabs and conservative Israelis were upset with the agreements Hamas threatened to do everything it could to undermine the agreement Conservative Israelis and West Bank settlers were against the accords – they believed that Rabin had sold out to the PLO Some warned they would do anything necessary to protect their property Others warned that they would never accept Palestinian rule

Oslo Accords 1993 Over the next year, the Palestinians developed the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) to govern the territory handed over by Israel Developed Police Force Selected a President – Yasser Arafat Elected a Parliament Violence continued by both the Israelis and Palestinians opposed to the peace process

After Oslo 1994, Israel and Jordan forge historic peace agreement – Jordan’s King Hussein becomes an important negotiator between Israel and the Palestinians 1995, Israelis and Palestinians are in the second stage of transferring the West Bank to Palestinian control Secular and moderate Israelis favored the land-for-peace process while religious and ultranationalist Israelis strongly opposed it Dissatisfaction ultimately symbolized by the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin by a Jewish fundamentalist

After Oslo 1996, in a very close election Likud candidate Benyamin Netanyahu was elected Prime Minister over then Prime Minister Shimon Peres – Netanyahu ruled with an uneasy coalition of right-wing nationalists and assorted religious parties, all opposed to “land for peace” Moderate Palestinians favored working toward a peace agreement with Israel; however, Hamas continued to oppose the peace process and they argued that negotiations had done little to improve Palestinians’ “quality of life”

After Oslo In the late 1990s, the Palestinian National Authority became more authoritarian and this led to a split between those actively pushing for democracy and those who saw it as a luxury These divisions only deepened as the peace process showed little hope of leading to improvements in Palestinian well-being

The Wye River Memorandum In October 1998, the Oslo peace process was stalled President Clinton brought Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Arafat the Wye River Plantation in Maryland for a new round of negotiations The talks faced collapse – King Hussein of Jordan, stricken with cancer left his American hospital and intervened directly With the intervention of King Hussein and U.S. pressure and promises of increased aid, there was a new Israeli-Palestinian agreement

The Wye River Memorandum The agreement, known as the Wye River Memorandum, outlined a new timetable for implementing the Oslo Accords and the beginning of negotiations on the most difficult issues separating the two sides Immediately after signing the Memorandum, the Palestinian Legislative Council renounced hostilities with Israel and revoked the articles o the Palestinian Charter that called for the elimination of the Jewish State Unfortunately, Prime Minister Netanyahu under pressure from the extreme right and religious parties opposed the deal and repeatedly delayed implementation

The Wye River Memorandum Prime Minister Netanyahu eventually suspended the agreement in December 1998 The Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in turn voted for early elections – May 1999 Ehud Barak overwhelmingly defeated Netanyahu – largely due to Netanyahu’s unpopularity and Barak’s promises to revive the peace process

Middle East in Transition The collapse of the Peace Process
In July 2000, President Clinton was eager to achieve a settlement before the end of his term – he hosted two weeks of intense, face-to-face negotiations between Prime Minister Barak and PLO Leader Yasser Arafat Prime Minister Barak believed the best strategy was to abandon the process of gradual steps and place all concessions and rewards on the table, including giving Palestinians control of 90 percent of the West Bank and authority over parts of Jerusalem

For the Palestinians, the interim steps were important – they helped develop trust in Israel’s commitment to honor any final agreement, and Palestinian Chairman Arafat viewed the steps as necessary for creating a more equal balance of power in advance of final negotiations Arafat dismissed the Israeli proposals as unjust; however, he failed to respond with a viable counteroffer – this led the Israelis to question his sincerity

The talks finally collapsed over three difficult issues: The permanent status of Jerusalem The right of return of the Palestinian refugees to their home Borders of the proposed Palestinian Territory In September 2000, Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon made a controversial visit to a holy shrine for both Jews and Muslims – this visit was provocative because Muslim Clerics had generally held autonomy in administering the site

Violent clashes ensued and launched a second intifada or uprising against the Israeli occupation resulting in the deaths of hundreds of people, mostly Palestinian Under pressure from many sides, Prime Minister Barak called for new Israeli elections in early 2001 Peace negotiations started again in Taba, Egypt – the talks failed amidst increasing violence Ariel Sharon stated that he would not honor any agreement made in Taba if elected Prime Minister – in February 2001, Sharon won a decisive victory

Middle East in Transition The Tenure of Ariel Sharon and the War on Terrorism
Upon taking office, Sharon formed a national unity government with the opposition Labor Party – based in part on the promise of pursuing an agreement with the Palestinians Unfortunately the coalition was deeply divided over the negotiating process In addition, the Palestinians deeply mistrusted Sharon – as defense minister in 1982, he oversaw the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the subsequent massacre of Palestinian refugees by Israeli-backed Lebanese Christian militias

Sharon became frustrated with Arafat’s inability, or unwillingness, to stop repeated suicide bombings in Israel by Palestinian extremists Sharon broke off contact with Arafat, deployed Israeli forces in areas once controlled by the Palestinian National Authority, and adopted a policy of assassinating militant Palestinian leaders Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the U.S.; the Israeli government justified its military crackdown as part of the global war on terrorism

This view of cracking down on the Palestinian extremists received support from the U.S. which branded Palestinian groups such as Hamas as terrorist organizations Palestinians criticized this characterization – they argued that Hamas was fighting for national liberation against an occupying army As positions hardened on both sides the cycle of violence continued

Violence reached a peak in 2002 with a series of suicide bombings The bombings prompted the largest Israeli response in 20 years 20,000 Israeli troops occupied areas throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip – included Ramallah the capital of the Palestinian National Authority Trapped Yasser Arafat in his headquarters for a month Attacked militant strongholds including the Jenin refugee camp

The Palestinians responded with more suicide attacks In September 2002, Israel responded again laying siege to Arafat’s headquarters and bulldozing buildings in Nablus and Ramallah In response to the escalating violence, the European Union, the United Nations, Russia, and the U.S. drafted a new peace plan dubbed the “road map” to peace

The “road map” to peace called for both sides to carry out concessions at the same time – over three years these concessions would progress to the resolution of all disputes and the creation of an independent Palestinian state First phase required Palestinians to make “visible efforts” to stop violence Israel was required to dismantle all settlements built since March 2001 and freeze all settlement activity Unfortunately the plan was postponed after Israel and the U.S. insisted the Palestinians first undertake major reforms in the Palestinian National Authority – included replacing Arafat

The pressure on the Palestinian National Authority to reform came from both the international community and from Palestinians frustrated with the corrupt an authoritarian nature of Arafat’s administration By March 2003, the Palestinian parliament created the post of prime minister – responsible for the day-to-day running of Palestinian affairs The new prime minister was Mahmoud Abbas and he with his new cabinet marked a tentative but symbolic shift away from Yasser Arafat This also satisfied the key U.S. demand for moving ahead with the “road map” – formally introduced on April 30, 2003

In May 2003 Sharon persuaded his cabinet to accept the “road map” In June 2003 Abbas persuaded the Islamist groups Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to declare a unilateral, three-month cease-fire – he also got an agreement from Fatah, the largest Palestinian political movement Unfortunately, in late August a Palestinian suicide bombing in Jerusalem and Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Abu Shanab effectively ended the cease-fire

As a result, Mahmoud Abbas resigns saying it was due to Israel’s slowness in implementing its commitments under the “road map” and he blamed the U.S. for failing to exert pressure on the Israelis Abbas also made it clear that his resignation was due in large part to a power struggle with Yasser Arafat – specifically Arafat’s refusal to turn over command of the PNA’s security forces

Mahmoud Abbas was replaced by Ahmed Qurei who announced his opposition to the armed Intifada and his commitment to the “road map”- making it clear that Arafat had to be involved if the peace process is to succeed Unfortunately, Qurei faced the same dilemma as Abbas – how do you get support from Israel and the U.S. by cracking down on the Palestinian militants without losing the support of the Palestinian people

In 2004, the Intifada is still underway and both sides were unwilling or unable to fulfill their first steps in the “road map” Israeli Prime Minister Sharon then announced a disengagement plan – a plan to separate the Israelis and Palestinians without a negotiated settlement Dismantlement of Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip and withdrawal of Israeli troops from the area; however, he also called for expanded settlements on in the West Bank Completion of a 400-mile-long separation barrier or wall

Reaction by both sides to Sharon’s plan were varied Withdrawal from Gaza Members of the Likud Party and the settlers opposed it, but it received widespread support from the rest of the Israeli population Palestinian Prime Minister Qurei cautiously endorsed the plan, but many Palestinians, including Yasser Arafat questioned Israel’s broader overall plan Building the Wall Israelis support the wall as a deterrent to Palestinian terrorist attacks Condemned by Palestinians and international community because it effectively annexes Palestinian territory that was to be returned after the 1967 War – the Palestinians say the barrier is turning their communities into prisons

The U.S. largely backed the disengagement plan – During a meeting with Prime Minister Sharon in April of 2004, President Bush declared that a final settlement should not require Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and that the Palestinian refugees should not have the right to return to their homes This infuriated the Palestinian leaders who said the U.S. and Israel had no right to determine the terms of the final settlement – the U.S. defended its policy saying it was only describing what was realistic

Prospects for Peace: Two turning points in Israeli-Palestinian relations came in November 2004 and January 2005 Yasser Arafat dies in November 2004 Former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is elected president in January 2005

Prospects for Peace: Abbas then deployed Palestinian police throughout Gaza in an attempt to stop attacks on Israeli settlers – Israel responded by stopping offensive military operations These steps led to a summit between Abbas and Sharon in Egypt in February 2005 – the two leaders declared a ceasefire and pledged to work toward the creation of an independent Palestinian state

Prospects for Peace: Throughout 2005 and 2006, a tentative calm prevailed between Israel and the Palestinians – tensions remained and two key factors were added to the complex conflict First. Hamas won the Palestinian Parliamentary election – this created a crisis for the international community When Hamas’ Ismail Haniya was sworn in as Prime Minister, western donors cut off direct aid Israel refused to deal with the Hamas government

Prospects for Peace: Second. The Israeli withdrawal from Gaza was completed in September 2005 – roughly 9,000 settlers were moved and the Israeli army destroyed the settlements November 2005, Sharon breaks with the Likud party and forms a centrist party, Kadima Unfortunately Sharon suffers a stroke in January 2006 – his deputy, Ehud Olmert takes over and leads Kadima to an election victory in March 2006 and vows to continue Sharon’s plan of withdrawals from Palestinian territory and establishing a final border

Middle East in Transition

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