1. New York State’s Labor Force Drivers Presented by Kevin Jack, Statewide Labor Market Analyst July 2008

2.  Introduction  New York’s Labor Force Drivers  Summary and Conclusions Presentation Outline

3. N O T E D E C O N O M I C S P R O G N O S T I C A T O R “The future ain’t what it used to be.” “You can observe a lot by just watching.” Introduction

4. Labor Force Drivers

5. Aging Population Slowing Population Growth More Diversity Higher Skill Requirements The Usual Suspects: Labor Force Drivers

6. Aging Population

7. U.S. Life Expectancy at Birth: 1850-2000 Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics Year Age Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

8. 9,000 baby boomers per day celebrated their 60 th birthday in 2006.

9. Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

10. Health Care Spending, U.S., 2005-2015 Within a decade, an aging America will spend one of every five dollars on health care. Total health care spending in the U.S. will double to more than $4 trillion by 2015. Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

11. Over the next 15 years, New York’s working age population is expected to grow only by 40,000, with the largest growth among those aged 55-64. The State’s core working-age population (ages 35-54) is projected to decline by more than 600,000. Source: Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research Projected Change in Working-Age Population (Ages 16 to 64), New York State, 2005 - 2020 Age Group Change Labor Force Drivers: Aging Population

12. Labor Force Participation Rates, by Age, New York State, 2003-2005 Source: Current Population Survey Labor force participation rates drop significantly after age 55.

13. Slowing Population Growth

14. Annual Rate of Change in New York State Population, 1940-2020 Projected The rate of growth of New York’s population has slowed considerably in the past half century. Labor Force Drivers: Slowing Population Growth

15. Projected Population Change in New York State Source: NYS Department of Economic Development

16. Increasing Diversity

17. Total Population, by Nativity, New York State, 1970-2000 Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity Percent Foreign-born 11.6% 13.6% 15.9% 20.4% 18.24 mn 17.56 mn 17.99 mn 18.98 mn Millions Between 1970 and 2000, the percentage of New York State’s population that was foreign born almost doubled.

18. New York State’s population and labor force are becoming increasingly diverse.  Between 1990 and 2006, the state’s foreign-born population increased by more than 1.3 million (+47 percent), while its overall population increased by less than 1.3 million.  Thus, the state’s population would have registered a decline rather than a gain over the 1990-2006 period. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity

19. New York State’s population and labor force are becoming increasingly diverse.  In 2006, 22 percent of the state’s population (4.18 million) was born outside of the U.S. (rank 2 nd to CA in both percent share and total immigrant count).  Top countries of origin (in descending order): Dominican Republic, China, Mexico, Jamaica, and Ecuador.  52% of immigrants have arrived since 1990, while 27 percent of immigrants (aged 5+) speak English “less than well.” Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity

20. New York State’s Labor Force, 1993 and 2005 A combination of increased population aged 16+ and increased labor force participation resulted in dramatic growth in the number of Hispanics in New York State's labor force between 1993 and 2005. Source: Current Population Survey Population, 16+ (1000s) Labor Force Participation Rate (%) % Change in Labor Force 19932005199320051993-2005 All Races 13,823.4 11,145.2 2,101.8 1,480.5 14,948.9 11,211.6 2,429.0 2,115.3 White Black Hispanic 61.6 62.3 57.3 54.4 62.9 63.5 60.6 61.3 10.3 2.5 22.1 61.1 Note: Hispanics can be of any race. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity

21. Projected Number of High School Graduates, New York State, 1997 to 2013 Source: New York State Department of Education Graduates Year The number of high school graduates in New York State is expected to peak at 185,000 in 2009.

22. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity Percentage Change in High School Graduates, by Region, NYS, 1997-2003 and 2003-2013 Source: NYSDOL Analysis of New York State Department of Education data Upstate Non-Metro NYC Upstate Metro New York State NYC Suburbs 32% 6% 5% -2% 5% 6% -4% 6% -14% -3%

23. Distribution of New York State Public High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-91, 2001-02 and 2013-14 Labor Force Drivers : Increasing Diversity Academic Year Race/Ethnic Group1990-912001-022013-14 Black, non-Hispanic 14% Hispanic 8%11%13% Asian/Pacific Islander 5%7%13% White, non-Hispanic 73%68%60% Source: The College Board/WICHE Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islanders comprise an increasing share of public high school graduates in New York. In contrast, White, non-Hispanics account for a decreasing share.

24. Educational Attainment, Population 25 years and Over, by Race/Ethnicity, New York State, 2000 Labor Force Drivers : Increasing Diversity 4-Year College Degree Race/Ethnic Group All Groups 27% Asian/Pacific Islander 41% White, non-Hispanic 32% Black, non-Hispanic 16% Hispanic 11% Source: Census Bureau Among those 25 years and over, much higher proportions of Asian/Pacific Islanders and White, non-Hispanics had at least a 4-year college degree.

25. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity  The number of high school graduates in New York State is projected to peak at 185,000 in 2009.  The share of public high school graduates in New York State from racial/ethnic minority groups will increase over the next decade, continuing a long-term trend.  Hispanics are projected to be one of the fastest-growing groups, but the group has a relatively low 4-year college degree attainment rate. Over the next decade:

26. Increasing Skill Requirements

27. Overview of Skill Levels of the U.S. Labor Force Workers need to continually upgrade their skills if they are to adapt to and take part in a continually changing economy. Education is a key contributor to wage level and wage growth. The “wage premium” paid to workers with a 4-year college degree has increased over the past 30 years. The science and engineering sectors of the U.S. economy remain particular concerns. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements

28. Factors Affecting the Growing “Wage Premium” Effects of increasing retirements. Increased use of advancing technologies – most basic jobs require workers to gain escalating levels of skills and education. Increased global competition -- especially evident in “offshore outsourcing” of lower-skilled IT jobs. A 2002 BLS study estimated that over the course of their working lives, adults with a bachelor’s degree earned almost $1 million more than those with a only a high school diploma; those with a master’s degree, on average, earned $1.3 million more than high school graduates. Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements

29. Average Annual Earnings by Education, U.S. Workers with more education, on average, enjoy both higher annual earnings and faster wage growth Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements

30. Workers with a bachelor’s degree earn, on average, higher salaries than those with only a high school diploma. These differences have grown over the past 30 years. Source: Current Population Survey

31. Percentage Change in First University Degrees Awarded in Engineering and Physical/Biological Sciences, 1987 - 2002 Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006 Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements The percentage change in the number of U.S. first university degrees awarded in the engineering and physical/biological sciences fields between 1987 and 2002 lagged that of other countries.

32. First University Degrees Awarded in Engineering and Physical/Biological Sciences and Share of Total Degrees Awarded, 2002 Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006 49.5% 10.8% 22.5% 25.5% 32.4% Share of Degrees in Country Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Skill Requirements The share of U.S. first university degrees awarded in the engineering and physical/biological sciences fields is significantly lower than in other countries.

33. Percentage Change in Projected Employment, by Education and Training Level, New York State, 2002 - 2012 Source: New York State Department of Labor

34. The following economic and demographic forces have and will likely continue to shape New York State’s labor force in the coming years: Summary and Conclusions  New York, like most states, has experienced an aging population due to the graying of the baby boomers. This trend is projected to continue.  Many New York counties, especially in the Upstate region, are expected to face population pressures.

35.  International immigration has increased the diversity of New York State’s population and labor force; this trend is expected to continue.  Skill requirements for U.S. workers continue to increase due to: increasing retirements, increased use of technology, and growing global competition  These factors have contributed to a growing “wage premium” paid to more highly educated workers over the past 30 years. Summary and Conclusions (continued)

36.  Global competition in higher education, especially in the science and engineering fields, is becoming an increasingly important economic issue.  Long-term occupational projections for New York forecast that jobs requiring at least some college education will grow fastest over the next decade. Summary and Conclusions (continued)

37. New York State’s Labor Force Drivers Presented by Kevin Jack, Statewide Labor Market Analyst Phone: (518) 457-2919 email: Kevin.Jack@labor.state.ny.us