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Are MPs revolting? Philip Cowley University of Nottingham.

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Presentation on theme: "Are MPs revolting? Philip Cowley University of Nottingham."— Presentation transcript:

1 Are MPs revolting? Philip Cowley University of Nottingham


3 Backbench rebellions, first sessions, Labour Governments, 1924-2001

4 % rebellions, 1945-2003

5 Largest rebellions since 2001

6 The rebel top ten

7 The poodles myth: 1997-2001 96 separate rebellions 4th largest average in post-war period 133 rebels in total Rebellion on increase before the 2001 election

8 Size of rebellions, 2001-2003

9 % size of rebellions, 1945-2003

10 Number of issues rebelled over

11 Reasons for increasing rebellion The decline of self-discipline Ex-ministers: 90 Ex-would-be ministers: 80+ Growing number of rebels

12 Time Frequency

13 Time

14 ‘We will not introduce ‘top up’ fees and have legislated to prevent them’ Ambitions for Britain, 2001

15 The scale of the opposition Paul Farrelly’s EDM 2: 138 MPs John Grogan’s EDM 799: 93 MPs Anne Campbell’s EDM 944: 70 MPs Ian Gibson’s EDM 7: 155 196 public opponents of top-up fees

16 Holes, how to get in them Policy –Outright opposition –Revenue -- and cap –Debt –Variability -- and marketisation Process –No consultation –Manifesto Recent history

17 Ian Gibson EDM: Past Behaviour

18 Second Reading

19 Ian Gibson EDM: How They Voted

20 Top up fees EDM signers, by previous rebellion

21 % likelihood of backing government, by previous behaviour

22 Holes, getting out of Threaten them with victory Divide and conquer Love them to death Change policy

23 Threaten them with victory Votes of confidence? Prime Ministerial resignation? Damaged Government? Conservative revival Hutton

24 Divide and conquer Report Stage rebellion: 57 21 defectors from 2nd Reading Six new rebels Third reading: four new rebels Total: 82 cross-votes

25 Changes in Policy White Paper Bill Second Reading Report Stage

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