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Are MPs revolting? Philip Cowley University of Nottingham
Backbench rebellions, first sessions, Labour Governments,
Largest rebellions since 2001
The rebel top ten
The poodles myth: separate rebellions 4th largest average in post-war period 133 rebels in total Rebellion on increase before the 2001 election
Size of rebellions,
% size of rebellions,
Number of issues rebelled over
Reasons for increasing rebellion The decline of self-discipline Ex-ministers: 90 Ex-would-be ministers: 80+ Growing number of rebels
‘We will not introduce ‘top up’ fees and have legislated to prevent them’ Ambitions for Britain, 2001
The scale of the opposition Paul Farrelly’s EDM 2: 138 MPs John Grogan’s EDM 799: 93 MPs Anne Campbell’s EDM 944: 70 MPs Ian Gibson’s EDM 7: public opponents of top-up fees
Holes, how to get in them Policy –Outright opposition –Revenue -- and cap –Debt –Variability -- and marketisation Process –No consultation –Manifesto Recent history
Ian Gibson EDM: Past Behaviour
Ian Gibson EDM: How They Voted
Top up fees EDM signers, by previous rebellion
% likelihood of backing government, by previous behaviour
Holes, getting out of Threaten them with victory Divide and conquer Love them to death Change policy
Threaten them with victory Votes of confidence? Prime Ministerial resignation? Damaged Government? Conservative revival Hutton
Divide and conquer Report Stage rebellion: defectors from 2nd Reading Six new rebels Third reading: four new rebels Total: 82 cross-votes
Changes in Policy White Paper Bill Second Reading Report Stage
The University of Nottingham The Rise of Parliament? Philip Cowley.
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