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Access to products from the SWFDP-EA RSMC, Nairobi web portal Vincent N. Sakwa KMD.

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Presentation on theme: "Access to products from the SWFDP-EA RSMC, Nairobi web portal Vincent N. Sakwa KMD."— Presentation transcript:

1 Access to products from the SWFDP-EA RSMC, Nairobi web portal Vincent N. Sakwa KMD

2 Login page Username: swfdp Password: swfdp1

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5 NWP MODELS-REGIONAL PRODUCTS COSMO(7km) WRF(7km) LAKE VICTORIA PRODUCTS ALADIN LA RE-UNION INDIAN OCEAN WAVES UK MET OFFICE LAM MET OFFICE EPS

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9 GLOBAL PRODUCTS NOAA EA PRODUCTS NOAA EA ECMWF PRODUCTS ECMWF UK MET PRODUCTS UK MET TIGGE-GIFS East Africa products for TIGGE-GIFS East Africaproducts for

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11 GUIDANCE PRODUCTS Short range forecasts (1-2 days) Medium range forecasts (3-5 days) Agrometeorology Products (5days) Satellite products Evaluation Form

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14 Risk tables Indicate areas where severe weather is expected, ‘X’ if it applies for the entire area, otherwise specified. Eg. S coast Risk categories: No risk, Low, Medium or High

15 Heavy RainStrong Winds RISKNo risk Low riskMedium risk High risk No risk Low riskMedium risk High risk XX XX DRCXX N,EX XX SX XX RSMC-NAIROBI SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RISK TABLES SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2) Issue Date: Saturday 19 th November 2011 In order to provide more information about the geographical location of the severe event the following convention is adopted when filling in the cells: X for the whole country, N for the northern part, S for the southern part, W for the western part and E for the eastern part. Day 1: Saturday 19 th November 2011

16 RSMC-NAIROBI SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2) Issue Date: 19 th November 2011 Valid for: 19 th to 20 th November 2011 Showers and thunderstorms expected over several places in the region as indicated in the risk table. Degree of confidence: High Day 2: Sunday 20 th November 2011 Showers and thunderstorms expected over several places in the region as indicated in the risk table. Degree of confidence: High

17 Links to International Centers ECMWF NCEP UK MET OFFICE WMO DWD KMA RSMC-PRETORIA ICPAC ICMWF ACMAD AGRHYMET

18 Regional and International Centres ECMWF NCEP UKMO WMO RSMC-Reunion ACMAD

19 Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) 1(a) Products that can be provided include: Site specific “Meteograms”. Precipitation threshold probability charts. Windspeed threshold probability charts. Spaghetti Diagrams. Tropical cyclone tracks forecasts.

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21 Links to National Met Services Kenya Ethiopia Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Burundi

22 Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa- LAM Fields available include: Accumulated precipitation (6 and 24-hour) Outgoing longwave radiation Pressure at mean sea level Wet bulb potential temperature at 850 mbar Temperature at 1.5m, 925hPa, 700hPa Wind at 10m, 850hPa, 700hPa, 200hPa Relative humidity at 925hPa, 700hPa

23 Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa- LAM How can you get it? (i)Through a password protected website ather/africa/lam/ ather/africa/lam/ The user name is afr_nms, and the password is uk_alam. (ii) The forecast fields are available through EUMETCAST using satellite receiver stations. This allows the data to be viewed using forecaster workstations.

24 Spaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mb Probability of 10m wind, exceeding 10kts Probability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm NCEP NWP Products

25 GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

26 DeterministicProbabilistic, 30mm/day threshold Deterministic Vs. probabilistic Forecast, GFS VS GEFS Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009 Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009 Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009

27 Surface and Column Parameters

28 28 Daily QPF Probability of P exceedance Rainfall anomaly Last 7 days Grid Box P daily evolution - last 90 days Real Time Access to Products

29 2. Current Status Real Time Monitoring 7 days30 days 180 days90 days Daily Evolution

30 Extreme Forecast Index


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