14Risk tablesIndicate areas where severe weather is expected, ‘X’ if it applies for the entire area, otherwise specified. Eg. S coastRisk categories: No risk, Low, Medium or High
15SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RISK TABLES RSMC-NAIROBISWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTSRISK TABLESSHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)Issue Date: Saturday 19th November 2011In order to provide more information about the geographical location of the severe event the following convention is adopted when filling in the cells: X for the whole country, N for the northern part, S for the southern part, W for the western part and E for the eastern part.Day 1: Saturday 19th November 2011Heavy RainStrong WindsRISKNo riskLow riskMedium riskHigh riskXDRCN,ES
16SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2) RSMC-NAIROBISWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTSSHORT-RANGE (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)Issue Date: 19th November 2011Valid for: 19th to 20th November 2011Showers and thunderstorms expected over several places in the region as indicated in the risk table.Degree of confidence: HighDay 2: Sunday 20th November 2011
17Links to International Centers ECMWFNCEPUK MET OFFICEWMODWDKMARSMC-PRETORIAICPACICMWFACMADAGRHYMET
18Regional and International Centres ECMWFNCEPUKMOWMORSMC-ReunionACMAD
19Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) Products that can be provided include:Site specific “Meteograms”.Precipitation threshold probability charts.Windspeed threshold probability charts.Spaghetti Diagrams.Tropical cyclone tracks forecasts.
21Links to National Met Services KenyaEthiopiaRwandaTanzaniaUgandaBurundi
22Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM Fields available include:Accumulated precipitation (6 and 24-hour)Outgoing longwave radiationPressure at mean sea levelWet bulb potential temperature at 850 mbarTemperature at 1.5m, 925hPa, 700hPaWind at 10m, 850hPa, 700hPa, 200hPaRelative humidity at 925hPa, 700hPa
23Limited Area Model for Africa: Africa-LAM How can you get it?Through a password protected websiteThe user name is afr_nms, and the password is uk_alam.(ii) The forecast fields are available through EUMETCAST using satellite receiver stations. This allows the data to be viewed using forecaster workstations.
24NCEP NWP ProductsSpaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mbProbability of 10m wind, exceeding 10ktsProbability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm