20-5 Inflation and Money Growth Avoid sustained high inflation: Central bank must watch money growth Can’t have high, sustained inflation without monetary accommodation Something beyond just differences in money growth accounts for the differences in inflation across countries.
20-7 A number of countries created following the collapse of the Soviet Union experienced very high levels of inflation Because they had command economies, the state was involved in every aspect of economic life Government expenditures were financed by printing money To bring inflation under control, the authority to print money was turned over to an independent central bank
20-8 CPI: How much would it cost to purchase today the basket of goods people bought on a fixed date in the past? Fixed expenditure weights CPI is known to overstate inflation: Doesn’t adjust for changes in buying patterns Difficulty in adjusting for quality Hard to introduce new goods
20-9 Velocity of money (V) The number of times each dollar is used (per unit of time). The Quantity Theory and the Velocity of Money
20-10 The Quantity Theory and the Velocity of Money Quantity of Money (M) x Velocity (V) = Nominal GDP Nominal GDP = Price level (P) x Real Output (Y)
20-11 The Quantity Theory and the Velocity of Money MV = PY implies % M + % V = % P + % Y Money Growth + Velocity Growth = Inflation + Real Growth
20-12 Irving Fisher’s Quantity Theory of Money: assume that %ΔV = 0 and %ΔY = 0. Double M double P Inflation is a monetary phenomenon (Milton Friedman) The Quantity Theory and the Velocity of Money
20-14 Velocity of Money Historical data confirm Fisher’s conclusion that in the long run, the velocity of money is stable. Controlling inflation means controlling the growth of the monetary aggregates.
20-15 When it was first started, the ECB looked at money growth closely Velocity appeared relatively stable Created a reference value –Inflation = 1½% –Real Growth = 2¼% –Velocity Growth = ¾% Reference value for money growth= 1½%+ 2¼%+¾% = 4½% In 2003 the reference value was downgraded and today it is a long-run guide
20-16 The Demand for Money: Transactions Demand The quantity of money people hold for transactions purposes depends –on their nominal income –the cost of holding money –and the availability of substitutes As the nominal interest rate rises –people reduce their checking account balances –shift funds into and out of higher-yield investments more frequently
20-17 The Demand for Money: Transactions Demand The higher the nominal interest rate, the higher the opportunity cost of holding money,the less money individuals will hold for a given level of transactions.
20-18 The Demand for Money: Portfolio Demand As a store of value, money provides diversification when held with a wide variety of other assets, including stocks and bonds Portfolio demand depends on –Wealth –the expected return relative to the alternatives –expectations that interest rates will change in the future –Risk –Liquidity
20-20 Bankers joke that “free checking” is really “fee checking” If you sign up for a bank account that is supposed to be free be sure you know when you pay fees and when you don’t
20-21 Targeting Money Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment In the long run: inflation is tied to money growth. High-inflation environment: – moderate variations in the growth of velocity are an annoyance –the only way to reduce high inflation is to reduce money growth.
20-22 Low-inflation environment: Policymakers can use money growth as a policy guide if velocity stable Targeting Money Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment
20-23 Two criteria for the use of money growth as a direct monetary policy target: –A stable link between the monetary base and the quantity of money –A predictable relationship between the quantity of money and inflation Targeting Money Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment
20-24 Targeting Money Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment When criteria are met, policymakers can –predict the impact of changes in the central bank’s balance sheet on the quantity of money –translate changes in money growth into changes in inflation.
20-25 Targeting Money Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment Interest rates opportunity cost Demand for money velocity Creates upward sloping relationship between interest rates and velocity To use monetary aggregates policymakers need to find a relationship with a predictable slope
20-26 M2 Velocity and the Opportunity Cost of M2 Problem: Relationship shifted in early 1990s.
20-27 Making policy is about numbers This means using statistical models The problem is that when policymakers change the way they make policy, everyone changes the way they act Following changes in policy regime, old models may be a poor guide for future policy
20-28 Targeting Money Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment Possible explanations for the instability of U.S. money demand over the last quarter of the 20th century. –the introduction of financial instruments that paid higher returns than money. –changes in mortgage refinancing rates.
20-30 Targeting Money Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment The ECB and the Fed have both chosen interest rates as their operating instrument Interest rates are the link between the financial system and the real economy By keeping interest rates stable, policymakers can insulate the real economy from disturbances that arise in the financial system While inflation is tied to money growth in the long run, interest rates are the tool policymakers use to stabilize inflation in the short run.