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TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Designing and building a value risk-matrix for the evaluation and mitigation of health and safety risks.

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Presentation on theme: "TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Designing and building a value risk-matrix for the evaluation and mitigation of health and safety risks."— Presentation transcript:

1 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Designing and building a value risk-matrix for the evaluation and mitigation of health and safety risks with MACBETH Designing and building a value risk-matrix for the evaluation and mitigation of health and safety risks with MACBETH Diana F. Lopes, Mónica D. Oliveira and Carlos A. Bana e Costa Centre for Management Studies of Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal

2 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 2 Agenda  Context and objectives  Methodological framework  Structuring o EI: Nomenclature o EII: How to identify and measure risk sources and their consequences? o EIII: Identification of impact dimensions o EIV: Impact scale construction o EV: How to estimate the consequences’ impact in each dimension?  Value measurement o MI: Independence test between impact dimensions o MII: Impact value measurement (MACBETH-Choquet model)  Future research Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

3 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Probability Impact levels Negligible (1)Minor (2)Moderate (3)Major (4)Extreme (5) Almost Certain (5) Likely (4) Possible (3) Unlikely (2) Rare/remote (1) Risk matrix in use by the Health Service Executive 3 Prob. × Impact Similar systems are used by multiple public and private organizations…

4 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 4 U.S. Department of Defense …prioritise risks encountered in the development, test, production, use, and disposal of defense systems (US DoD, 2012) …prioritise risks that threat the health system, organisations, business units and team and/or patients (OSQHC, 2005) …prioritise risks that threat the health system, organisations, business units and team and/or patients (OSQHC, 2005) Department of Education, Training and Employment (DETE) …managing health and safety risks in DETE workplaces (Figueiredo and Oliveira, 2009)

5 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 5 Allow for intuitive use, demanding for limited expertise (Cox, 2009) Imposed by International Standards (ISO, IEC/FDIS 31010) and recommended by guidelines in many contexts (e.g. health and safety) Are included in several packages: SAP (SAP AG, 2012) Active Risk Manager (Microsoft Pinpoint, 2012) MITRE’s risk matrix tool (The MITRE corporation, 1999) Provide a clear framework for systematic review of risks, enabling organizations to prepare convenient documentation Allow for stakeholders participating in the process of building risk matrices (Cox, 2008) Why are risk matrices widely used? Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

6 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 6 Cox Jr., L. A. (2008). "What’s wrong with risk matrices?" Risk Analysis 28(2): Pickering, A. and S. P. Cowley (2010). "Risk Matrices: implied accuracy and false assumptions." Journal of Health & Safety Research & Practice 2(1): Linkov, I., F. K. Satterstrom, et al. (2006). "From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: Recent developments and applications." Environment International 32: 1072–1093. Levine, E. S. (2011). “Improving risk matrices: the advantages of logarithmically scaled axes.” Journal of Risk Research 15(2): 209–222. Levine, E. S. and J. F. Waters (2013). "Managing risk at the Tucson sector of the U.S. border patrol." Risk Analysis 33(7): Wall, K. D. (2011). The trouble with risk matrices. Working Paper, Naval Postgraduate School, Defense Resources Management Institute,. 2/2011. Smith, E. D., W. T. Siefert, et al. (2009). " Risk matrix input data biases." Systems Engineerings 12(4): Key problems with risk matrices Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

7 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Use of interval scales such that the difference in attractiveness between two consecutive impact (probability) levels is the same. Use of the same qualitative impact scale for all the risk dimensions and characterize each source of risk only by the worst impact level across all the dimensions, ignoring the cumulative effects of multiple impacts 7 Key problems with risk matrices (examples) Probability Impact levels Negligible (1)Minor (2)Moderate (3)Major (4)Extreme (5) Almost Certain (5) Likely (4) Possible (3) Unlikely (2) Rare/remote (1) Financial losses of €3M & 20 Deaths Financial losses of €3M = Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

8 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 8 Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the ARSLVT composed by an engineer, nurses, doctors and technicians, makes use of traditional risk matrices: Context: case study Severity of the injury 1. Very low2. Low3. High4. Very high Probability of the event 1. Unlikely1. Very low2. Very lowLow4. Moderate 2. Likely2. Very low4. Moderate6. Moderate8. High 3.Quite likely3. Low6. Moderate9. High12. Very high 4. Very likely4. Moderate8. High12. Very high16. Very high Source: (ARSLVT, 2010) Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

9 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 9 Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the ARSLVT composed by a engineer, nurses, doctors and technicians, makes use of traditional risk matrices: Context: case study Severity of the injury 1. Very low2. Low3. High4. Very high Probability of the event 1. Unlikely1. Very low2. Very lowLow4. Moderate 2. Likely2. Very low4. Moderate6. Moderate8. High 3.Quite likely3. Low6. Moderate9. High12. Very high 4. Very likely4. Moderate8. High12. Very high16. Very high Problems with Risk Matrices Interviews, reports and manual’s analysis Source: (ARSLVT, 2010) Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

10 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 10 Context: Interviews, reports and manual’s analysis Problems identified Ambiguous nomenclature Difficulty in identifying the risk sources Arbitrariness when estimating impacts and probabilities Decision makers’ opinions incompatible with the manual Problems in resource allocation Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

11 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 11 Objectives This study aims to answer the call for help from the OHSU of the ARSLVT  Risk Assessment in health and safety at work  Challenge: Improve risk matrices’ design to avoid inconsistencies  Selection of corrective measures with the greatest potential to mitigate risks Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

12 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June ACTIVITIES PROPOSED Value risk matrix, using MACBETH Multicriteria resource allocation model System to support risk assessment Risk Assessment’s context for Health and Safety at work Model requisiteness OUTPUTS Multicriteria risk impact value and probability for each risk & Classification of risks into risk categories & Selection of mitigation actions that maximize value given available budget Risk management Structuring and alocation Mitigation actions Selection of mitigation actions Risk classification Acceptability Structuring SI: Identification of issues and challenges SII: Nomenclature SIII: Tables match SIV: Identification of impacts dimensions SV: Impact scales SVI: impacts Estimation Value measurement MI: Dependency test between dimensions MII: Impact MIII: Subjective Probability Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Methodological framework

13 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 13

14 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Appraisal 14 CORRESPONDENCE S II Risk Sources Health consequences Impact estimation on each dimension S V Identification of relevant dimensions to assess the impact S III Impact scales construction S IV Worst Best Employee’s health Worst Best Capability to return to work 0 days 18 yearsWorst Best Absenteeism 0 yhll 34 yhll ND ID Nota - yhll: years of healthy life lost; ND: null disability; ID: irrecoverable total disability Nomenclature S I Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Structuring

15 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 15 Nota - dhll: day of healthy life lost; RD: Recoverable Disability Grooves on the stairs to access the building RISK SOURCE Fall RISK Foot fracture  3,5 dhll  RD  1 month of absenteeism CONSEQUENCEIMPACT Expression levels Grooves: 0 cm 2 cm 10 cm (…) Expression’s levels Proposed Nomenclature Following (ISO, IEC/FDIS ), (ARSLVT, 2010), (Vose, 2008)

16 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 16 Appraisal Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Appraisal CORRESPONDENCE S II Risk Sources Health consequences Nomenclature S I

17 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Problem Difficulty in identifying and measuring the expression levels of risk sources and their consequences Appraisal 17 CORRESPONDENCE RSA RSB … Risk sources identification Pictorial Qualitative Quantitative Measurement of expression levels CA CB … Health consequences Proposal Based on an intensive literature review Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

18 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 18 Example: Noise Description of noisedBExposure limitHealth consequences Normal breathing10 Without limitWithout efect Air conditioning50 Home558hAnnoyance Normal conversation (public lounges, offices, cafes, bars) 60 8hAnnoyance pronounced yhllirator70 Alarm Clock (airport wainting room)758hAn increase in hearing threshold level (TL) can occur Hairdryer808h Annoyance and possible increase in TL Backhoe858hPossible increase int the TL’s level Exposure Limit876h Hearing loss of dB in a working period from 1 to 2 years Hearing loss of 50 dB in the working period of 50/52 years Mowing machine894h30min Sheet Metal Shop1001h Ambulance siren1203,75 min Pain and hearing loss treatable or not treatable Very loud rock concert13056,25 s Jet plane14014 s Pain and acoustic trauma. Hearing loss may be accompanied by a buzzing Work from: (HCN, 1994);(Passchier et al., 2000);(Decreto-Lei 182/2006) Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

19 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 19 Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Dimensions identification Appraisal CORRESPONDENCE S II Risk Sources Health consequences Identification of relevant dimensions to assess the impact S III Nomenclature S I

20 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 20  The identification of relevant dimensions to assess the risk impact was performed in workshops with OHSU Final Value Tree Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Dimensions identification

21 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 21 Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Impact scales Appraisal CORRESPONDENCE S II Risk Sources Health consequences Identification of relevant dimensions to assess the impact S III Impact scale construction S IV Worst Best Employee’s health Worst Best Capability to return to work 0 days 18 yearsWorst Best Absenteeism 0 yhll 34 yhll ND ID Nota - yhll: years of healthy life lost; ND: null disability; ID: irrecoverable disability Nomenclature S I

22 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 22 0 years of healthy life lost 34 years of healthy life lost Worst Better Employee’s Health Best: Null disability The employee is fit for the full exercise of his usual functions Recoverable diss. The employee’s usual functions are committed but in a retrievable form Irrecoverable partial dis. with return to work Some of the normal duties of the employee are irreversibly committed and the return to the usual work is possible with restrictions Irrec. Partial dis. with No return to work Part of the normal duties of the employee are irreversibly committed and the return to work is not possible Worst: Irrec. disability All the usual functions of the employee are irretrievably committed 0 (zero duration) Worst Better Absenteeism 18 years = [Retirement age] – [Average age of ARS’ employees] Capability to return to work Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Impact scales

23 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 23 Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Impact estimation Appraisal CORRESPONDENCE S II Risk Sources Health consequences Impact estimation on each dimension S V Identification of relevant dimensions to assess the impact S III Impact scale construction S IV Worst Best Employee’s health Worst Best Capability to return to work 0 days 18 yearsWorst Best Absenteeism 0 yhll 34 yhll ND ID Nota - yhll: years of healthy life lost; ND: null disability; ITD: irrecoverable total disability Nomenclature S I

24 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Problem Difficulty in estimating impacts due to the decision makers’ lack of knowledge Proposal 24 Sources: (Bowie et al.,1997); (Mathers et al., 1999);(Murray et al., 1996); (Stouthard et al., 1997); (U.S. Department of Labor, 2013); … ConsequencesEmployee’s Health Capability to return to work Absenteeism Amputation of a finger (except the thumbs) 3,5 years of healthy life lost Irrecoverable Partial Disability with return to work 26 days Sprain 1 day of healthy life lost Recoverable Disability10 days Tuberculosis 1,6 months of healthy life lost Recoverable Disability 6 months ………… Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Impact estimation

25 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 25

26 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June Dependency test between impact dimensions 26 M I Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Value measurement Impact value measurement using the MACBETH-Choquet model:  Construction of a global descriptor that combines the various dimensions  Issues Protocol using the interactive version of Microsoft PowerPoint  Populate the MACBETH global matrix with the judgements elicited by the decision makers  Determination of IC’s parameters (Shapley and interaction) M II

27 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 27 The capability to return to work is cardinally dependent on the employee’s health Nota - yhll: years of healthy life lost; mhll: months of healthy life lost; IPDR: Irrecoverable Partial Disability with return to work; RD: Recoverable Disability IPDR 15 yhll Employee’s health Capability to return to work Absenteeism Strong RD IPDR1 year 1,6 mhllWeak 1 year Employee’s health Capability to return to work Absenteeism Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Dependency test

28 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 28 Dependency test between impact dimensions Impact value measurement using the MACBETH-Choquet model:  Construction of a global descriptor that combines the various dimensions  Issues Protocol using the interactive version of Microsoft PowerPoint  Populate the MACBETH global matrix with the judgements elicited by the decision makers  Determination of IC’s parameters (Shapley and interaction) M II M I Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Impact value measurement

29 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 29 MACBETH is an interactive decision support approach … uses qualitative judgments of differences of attractiveness… … based on seven qualitative categories of difference in attractiveness Wide applicability in MCDA: Health care: (Bana e Costa et al., 2011)(de Castro et al., 2011)(Lopes, 2013) (Oliveira et al., 2011) Energy: (Bana e Costa et al., 2008)(Barin et al., 2012) Environment: (Bana e Costa et al., 2013); (Cox et al., 2013) Risk management: (Bana e Costa et al., 2008b);(Dall'Osso et al., 2009); (Joerin et al., 2010); (Oliveira et al., 2004) … Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research MACBETH Typically, MACBETH applications use an additive value model (preference independence conditions are verified)… …but many studies are using MACBETH with CI to model interdependencies

30 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 30 Proposal Use of the MACBETH-Choquet methodology to model interdependencies Friendly and intuitive questioning protocol Judgments based on seven qualitative categories of MACBETH Intuitive meaning of the results MACBETHMACBETH Choquet integral Mathematical formulation of the 2-additive CI operator: (Lopes et al., 2014) Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research MACBETH-Choquet model

31 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 31 Global Descriptor Interactive questioning protocol MACBETH Global Matrix Choquet integral’s parameters LevelsDescription SQ: Status quo0 anos saudáveis perdidos RS1,6 meses saudáveis perdidos P: Pior34 anos saudáveis perdidos LevelsDescription SQ: Status quo 0 anos RS1 mês P: Pior18 anos LevelsDescriptio n SQ: Status quoIN RSRTD RIIPDR P : PiorITD LevelsDescription P1P2P3P1P2P3 34 anos saudáveis perdidos, inc. absoluta irrecuperável, 18 anos de ausência laboral (34yhll, ITD, 18a) 15 anos saudáveis perdidos, inc. absoluta irrecuperável, 18 anos de ausência laboral (15yhll, ITD, 18a) 15 anos saudáveis perdidos, inc. parcial irrecuperável sem regresso ao trabalho, 18 anos de ausência laboral (15yhll, IPDN, 18a) 4 anos saudáveis perdidos, inc. absoluta irrecuperável, 18 anos de ausência laboral (4yhll, ITD, 18a) (…) M-MACBETH Shapley and interaction’s parameters Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research MACBETH-Choquet model

32 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 32 LevelsDescription SQ: Status quo 0 days of healthy life lost UR 1,6 months of healthy life lost X 0,5 year of healthy life lost Y 1 year of healthy life lost Z 4 years of healthy life lost LR 15 years of healthy life lost W: Worst 34 years of healthy life lost LevelsDescription SQ: Status quo 0 years UR1 month T6 months LR1 year W: Worst18 years LevelsDescription SQ: Status quo ND URRD LRIPDR IIPDN W: WorstID (1) Employee’s Health (2) Incapability to return to work (3) Absenteeism Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Global descriptor

33 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 33 Levels 34 yhll, ID, 18 y 15 yhll, ID, 18 y 15 yhll, IPDN, 18 y 4 yhll, ID, 18 y 4 yhll, IPDN, 18 y 15 yhll, IPDR, 1 y 15 yhll, IPDR, 6 m 15 yhll, IPDR, 1 m 15 yhll, RD, 1 y 15 yhll, RD, 6 m 15 yhll, RD, 1 m 4 yhll, IPDR, 1 y 4 yhll, IPDR, 6 m 4 yhll, IPDR, 1 m 4 yhll, RD, 1 y Levels 4 yhll, RD, 6 m 4 yhll, RD, 1 m 1 yhll, IPDR, 1 y 1 yhll, IPDR, 6 m 1 yhll, IPDR, 1 m 1 yhll, RD, 1 y 1 yhll, RD, 6 m 1 yhll, RD, 1 m 1,6 mhll, IPDR, 1 y 1,6 mhll, IPDR, 6 m 1,6 mhll, IPDR, 1 m 1,6 mhll, RD, 1 y 1,6 mhll, RD, 6 m 1,6 mhll, RD, 1 m No impact (0 yhll, ND, 0 y) Nota - yhll: years of healthy life lost; mhll: months of healthy life lost; ID: Irrecoverable disability; IPDR: Irrecoverable Partial Disability with return to work; RD: Recoverable Disability; ND: Null Disability; y:years; m: months Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Global descriptor

34 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 34  Questioning protocol based on questions-type: “What is the attractiveness of reversing certain combination of impacts?”  Support system: Microsoft Office PowerPoint 2007  Sequential  Interactive Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Interactive questioning protocol

35 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 35 Interactive questioning protocol Final Judgments 34yhll, ID, 18y 15yhll, ID, 18y 15yhll, IPDN, 18y 4yhll, ID, 18y 4yhll, IPDN, 18y 15yhll, IPDR, 1y 15yhll, IPDR, 6m 15yhll, IPDR, 1m 15yhll, RD, 1y 15yhll, RD, 6m 15yhll, RD, 1m 4yhll, IPDR, 1y 4yhll, IPDR, 6m 4yhll, IPDR, 1m 4yhll, RD, 1y 4yhll, RD, 6m 4yhll, RD, 1m 1yhll, IPDR, 1y 1yhll, IPDR, 6m 1yhll, IPDR, 1m 1yhll, RD, 1y 1yhll, RD, 6m 1yhll, RD, 1m 0,5yhll, IPDR, 1y 0,5yhll, IPDR, 6m 0,5yhll, IPDR, 1m 0,5yhll, RD, 1y 0,5yhll, RD, 6m 0,5yhll, RD, 1m 1,6mhll, IPDR, 1y 1,6mhll, IPDR, 6m 1,6mhll, IPDR, 1m 1,6mhll, RD, 1y 1,6mhll, RD, 6m 1,6mhll, RD, 1m No impact No mpact No impact No mpact No impact

36 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 36 MACBETH global matrix Judgments elicited by the decisions makers

37 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 37 MACBETH global matrix Validated scales obtained in decision conferences based on the elicited judgments Scale validated by the decision makers

38 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 38 Shapley’s parameters Interaction’s parameters Combinations of impacts required to determine the CI parameters UR 1,UR 2,UR 3 UR 1,UR 2,LR 3 UR 1,LR 2,UR 3 UR 1,LR 2,LR 3 LR 1,UR 2,LR 3 LR 1,LR 2,UR 3 LR 1,LR 2,LR 3 Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research Choquet integral parameters

39 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June  Conclusion of the probability scale construction considering a group test of risks Value risk-matrix Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

40 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 40  Conclusion of the probability scale construction considering a group test of risks  Construction of a DSS in order to facilitate the use of the risk assessment system by the OHSU  Selection of mitigation measures (allocation resources) Context & objectives Methodological framework Structuring Value measurement Future research

41 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 41 Questions? Suggestions?

42 TMP Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting, 23rd June 42 FUNDING FROM THE PORTUGUESE PUBLIC BUDGET THROUGH FCT – FUNDAÇÃO PARA A CIÊNCIA E A TECNOLOGIA, WITHIN THE PROJECT PTDC/EGE- GES/119230/2010 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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