1. Ph. D. Completion and Attrition: Baseline Program Data
Robert Sowell
CGS Annual Meeting
December 7, 2007

2. Ph.D. Completion Project
Goals:
To study doctoral student completion and attrition patterns at a specifically selected set of Research and Project Partners institutions.
To give deans context to lead conversations about what attrition and completion patterns actually are at their universities, and what practices could be implemented to improve these patterns.
To empower graduate deans to develop interventions that are tailored to disciplines, departments, and programs at their universities.
Come on heels of decade of reform
Many efforts and studies – no anchor

3. Ph.D. Completion Project
Funding provided by Pfizer Inc and the Ford Foundation
29 Research Partner institutions received grants
25 Project Partner institutions are currently participating in various project aspects (unfunded)
Institutions participate in one or both project phases:
Phase I ( )
Phase II ( )

4. Data Requirements Completion and attrition data by program
Aggregate demographic completion data by broad field
Factor assessments for each institution and program
Student Exit Surveys

5. Categories of Potential Interventions
Selection/Matching
Mentoring and Advising
Financial Support and Structure
Program Environments
Research Experiences
Curricular and Administrative Processes and Procedures
Selection – Several SROP using “lab rotation” model to intro to fields and mentors
Mentoring - UNC Chapel Hill adopted an orchestrated system of awards and recognitions
Financial Support – UC San Diego: connecting block funding to completion and attrition goals
Program Environment – Cornell developed family leave policy for grad students
Research – Brown: fostering culture of competing for external grants—direct assistance centrally for funding and writing grants in STEM
Administrative Processes –U Michigan “Grad Tools” allows students to share data sets and communicate with advisors. Yale initiative substantive & specific curricular modifications to 9 programs in the 2-4 Project focused on years between course completion and early dissertation work

6. New CGS Publication
“Ph.D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of Baseline Program Data from the Ph.D. Completion Project”

7. Number of Programs and Entering Students in Baseline Data
# of Entering
Students
Engineering 54
9,496
Life Sciences 66
6,925
Math & Physical Sciences 78
15,262
Social Sciences 65
9,671
Humanities 67
7,759
All Fields Total
330
49,113

8. Cohort Definitions for Baseline Data Analysis
A-Cohorts (10-year cohorts)
Students enrolling in ; ;
12,135 students (313 programs)
B-Cohorts (7-year cohorts)
Students enrolling in ; ;
11,697 students (320 programs)
C-Cohorts (4-year cohorts)
Students enrolling in ; ;
12,125 students (323 programs)
The majority of the baseline data analysis focuses on the A-Cohorts.

9. Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates
4.5
10.5
22.5
36.1
45.5
50.9
54.6
56.6 20 40 60
Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data

10. Overall Ten-Year Attrition Rates
6.6
13.8
19.9
23.6
25.4 27
28.4
29.5
30.2
30.6 10 20 30
Cumulative Attrition Rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data

11. Ten-Year Completion Rates by Broad Field10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Year
Engineering
Life Sciences
Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Social Sciences
Humanities
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data
63.6
56.8
62.9
55.9
53.7
54.7
48.2
49.3
40.9
29.3

12. Ten-year Attrition Rates by Broad Field5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Cumulative Attrition Rate 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9
Year
Engineering
Life Sciences
Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Social Sciences
Humanities
NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering through
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data

13. By Year 10, Percentage of Continuing Students Plateaus in SEM, but Not SSH Fields20 40 60 80
100
Cumulative Rates %
STEM Fields
Social Sciences & Humanities 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Note: 10-Year Cohorts include all cohorts entering through
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data
Continuing
Completion
Attrition

14. Ten-Year Completion Rates for Mathematics & Physical Science Disciplines10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
year
Chemistry
Computer and Information Sciences
Mathematics
Physics and Astronomy
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data

15. Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Mathematics & Physical Science Disciplines5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Cumulative Attrition Rate 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9
Year
Chemistry
Computer and Information Sciences
Mathematics
Physics and Astronomy
NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering through
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data

16. Ten-Year Completion Rates by Institution Type10 20 30 40 50 60
Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Year
Private
Public
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data

17. Ten-Year Completion Rates by Cohort Size10 20 30 40 50 60
Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Year
Small
Medium
Large
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data
Small: 1-7
Medium: 8-14
Large: 15+

18. Seven-Year Completion Rates Over Time: A- and B- Cohorts, SEM vs
Seven-Year Completion Rates Over Time: A- and B- Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH Fields
35.7
35.8
50.6
51.9 10 20 30 40 50 60
Cumulative Completion Rate
SSH Fields
SEM Fields
NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering through
B-cohorts include all students entering through
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data
A-cohorts
B-cohorts

19. Four-Year (Early) Attrition Rates Over Time: A-, B- and C-Cohorts
20.2
24.2
23.6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Attrition Rate
NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering through
B-cohorts include all students entering through
C-cohorts include all cohorts entering through
Source: Council of Graduate Schools
Completion and Attrition Program Data A B C

20. Four-Year Attrition Rates Over Time: A-, B- and C-Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH
Four-Year Cumulative Attrition Rates for A-, B- and C-Cohorts by Broad Fields 20

21. Four-Year Continuing Rates Over Time: A-, B- and C-Cohorts
Overall Four-Year Cumulative Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates for A-, B- and C-Cohorts 21

22. Trend of Decreasing Attrition and Increasing Continuing Student Rates at Four Years
Overall Four-Year Cumulative Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates by Cohort Year 22

23. Future Questions to be Addressed in the Ph.D. Completion Project
How do completion patterns vary by ethnicity, gender and citizenship?
Why do students say they complete (or not)? What are the perceptions about graduate school of completers and non-completers?
What is the impact of the six categories of interventions? How does efficacy vary across broad field and for which populations?
Can we project ultimate completion and time to degree from our completion and attrition data?
Broad field data
Exit survey
Program data and broad field demographic data
Broad field and program data
Program data on attrition and completion

24. Future Ph.D. Completion Project Publications
Baseline demographic data (publication expected March 2008)
Student exit surveys (publication expected late fall 2008)
Promising practices, policies and activities
Publications based on 2007 and 2009 data submissions ( )
Final “Best Practices” report (2010)