1. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Gabriele Zanini, Luisella Ciancarella gabriele.zanini@enea.it Technical Unit: Models, Methods and Technologies for the Environmental Assessment, Bologna, Italy. Modelling the PM 10 and NO 2 concentrations in Italy. The role of the national integrated assessment model MINNI in support of the request of time extensions

2. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 National Integrated Model supporting International Negotiation on atmospheric pollution Project Leader: Gabriele Zanini Workgroup: ENEA (UTVALAMB-AIR, UTTAMB-ATM, UTMEA-TER), Arianet srl http://www.minni.org/ The MINNI Project RAIL ATM

3. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 RAMS, LAPS Emission Manager SURFPRO Meteo Turbolence Parameters FARM Emissions ECMWF FieldsLocal Data Emission Inventories (EMEP, ISPRA and GAINS) Spatial and temporal info Concentrations and Depositions Atmospheric Transfer Matrices EMEP IC e BC Fields METEO Subsystem EMISSION Subsystem CHEMICAL TRANSPORT Subsystem GAINS MODEL CHAIN

4. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 METEOROLOGY: 1999, 2005: 20km res. RAMS (nudging) 4km res. LAPS (diagnostic) 2003, 2007: RAMS (nudging) at 20km and 4km res. EMISSIONS: EMEP + National Inventory (ISPRA) (top-down approach)+ Regional Inventories (GAINS methodology) IC/BC: EMEP concentration fields AIR QUALITY: 20km and 4 km res. FARM One-way nested MODEL SIMULATIONS

5. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 3D meteorological fields 3D concentration fields for the main pollutants Years: 1999, 2005, 2003, 2007 Temporal resolution: 1 hour Spatial resolution: 20 km, 4 km Vertical grid: 12 levels (up to 4 km) 1999 16 levels (up to 10 km) 2005, 2003, 2007 MINNI AVAILABLE OUTPUTS

6. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 The project aims to provide decision makers with a scientific support instrument for developing and assessing the effectiveness of air quality policies at international, national and regional scale. Studies and analysis of the atmospheric processes Processing and assessing alternative emission scenarios - present and or future Environmental and health impact scenario Meteorological and chemical database for Air Quality studies, intercomparisons, boundary and initial conditions for downscaling MINNI OBJECTIVES

7. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Both inventories, national and local, follow the EMEP-CORINAIR Methodology and the SNAP (Selective Nomenclature for Air Pollution) classification scheme in 11 main classes Harmonization efforts between national and local emission inventories are in progress The recent Italian decree n. 155/2010, implementing the European Directive 2008/50/CE, confirms that air pollution prevention, improvement and preservation management is assigned to the Italian administrative Regions but in a coherent national frame Regions are in charge to elaborate Air Quality Plans in order to meet established environmental target EMISSION INVENTORIES

8. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 THE ROLE OF GAINS_ITALY   Non Energy Activity Level Scenario   Energy Activity Level GAINS Italy   Control Strategy (Emission Control Technologies)   Emission Scenarios   Deposition Maps   Concentration Maps   Health and Environmental Impact Indicators GAINS-ITALY RESOLUTION=> 20 ITALIAN ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS (NUTS2)

9. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 RAIL ATM  GAINS IS AN EMISSION MODEL AND NOT AN EMISSION INVENTORY. DUE TO ITS TECHNOLOGICAL SETTING, EMISSIONS DO NOT FOLLOW SNAP CLASSIFICATION (SOFTWARE RAIL MATCHES THE TWO CLASSIFICATION SCHEMES)  EMISSION PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON A REFERENCE YEAR WHICH HAS TO BE SIMILAR BETWEEN STATE AND REGIONS  GAINS NEEDS A FIRST CALIBRATION FOR THE REFERENCE YEAR TO REPRODUCE NATIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY (FIRST STEP) AND REGIONAL EMISSION INVENTORIES (SECOND STEP) HARMONIZATION EMISSIONS IN GAINS-ITALY

10. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 MINNI AND REGIONAL 2003-2007 AIR QUALITY PLANS MINNI supported the assessment of the first “generation” of Italian Regional Air Quality Management Plans (AQMPs) in 2003- 2007 years (D’Elia et al. “Technical and Non-Technical Measures for air pollution emission reduction:The integrated assessment of the regional Air Quality ManagementPlans through the Italian national model”, Atmospheric Environment 43 (2009), 6182–6189) The assessment included both technical and non technical measures and was carried out with the RAINS-Italy model comparing the Current LEgislation (CLE) scenario and an alternative scenario containing all the measures adopted by Regional administrations to pursue compliance with air quality standards The target year, 2010, was set and the efficacy of all AQMPs measures was assessed in terms of SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions avoided and PM10 concentration reductions together with the improvements of the health impact indicator, the Life Expectancy Reduction (LER), defined as months lost attributable to PM2.5 concentrations

11. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 1 = Urban Waste incineration with heat recovery; 2 = Biogas recovery in agricultural and in farming sectors; 3 = District heating Plant with waste and biomass; 4 = Photovoltaic; 5 = Wind; 6 = Hydroelectric; 7 = Geothermic Well; 8 = High efficiency domestic boilers; 9 = Energy efficiency in building; 10 = Residential heating accountability; 11 = Heat pumps; 12 = Solar heating systems; 13 = Regulation of some fuel use; 14 = Incentives for shift to natural gas in domestic boilers; 15 = Efficiency improvements in fireplaces and stoves; 16 = Low emission zones; 17 = Road traffic restriction; 18 = Pollution charge; 19 = Car sharing; 20 = Motorway speed limits; 21 = Bike sharing; 22 = Incentives for new cars; 23 = Incentives for new diesel heavy duty; 24 = Opening new rail lines; 25 = Opening new underground lines; 26 = Cycle paths; 27 = Sea motorway; 28 = Bus investment (new buses, service extension, frequency increase); 29 = Antiparticulate filter; 30 = Incentives for biofuel public transport; 31 = New methane service stations; 32 = Incentive for hydrogen cars; 33 = Rationalising load transport in urban area; MINNI AND REGIONAL 2003-2007 AIR QUALITY PLANS

12. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Emission Scenarios in support to PM 10 time extension Regional emission trends between 2011 and 2005 with measures adopted in 2003- 2007 Regional Air Quality Management Plans

13. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 MINNI AND REGIONAL 2003-2007 AIR QUALITY PLANS

14. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Emission Reduction Tests In order to achieve the compliance with the PM 10 limit values in all national territory some further emission reduction hypothesis have been tested. In particular the abatements regard primary PM 10 emissions and some precursors emissions in 2011 year. The resulting concentrations were simulated with MINNI model. Reduction hypotheses

15. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2011 Scenarios PM 10 annual mean concentrations in a subset of regional background (red-circled) and traffic stations Emission reductions Annual Limit Value: 40 µg/m3 Annual Limit Value statistically estimated to comply also with daily limit value in 2011: 33- 35 µg/m3

16. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2011 Scenarios PM 10 annual mean concentrations in a subset of regional background stations Emission reductions Annual Limit Value: 40 µg/m3 Annual Limit Value statistically estimated to comply also with one day limit value in 2011: 33-35 µg/m3

17. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Form 3A: Quantitative source apportionment REGIONS Form 2: Description of the exceedance of the limit value Form 5A: Details of measures implemented before the original date of compliance Form 4B: Baseline level for extended deadline for compliance Form 3B: Reflection on the failure to deliver compliance by the original deadline Form 4A: Baseline level for original deadline for compliance MINNI MINNI support to NO 2 time extension notifications

18. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 Regional Source Apportionment a. a.Emission variation (-20%) b. b.Model run at national scale with 20 km spatial resolution, for 1 winter and 1 summer period c. c.Calculation of mean concentrations  with reference to base run This for: Each Region separately (“regional” runs) … variation  i All Regions jointly (“control” run) … variation  N The percentage contribution of each Region i is estimated as  i /  N Base run: 2008 national emission inventory at activity level (Institute for Environmental Protection and Research- ISPRA)

19. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Northern Italy NO 2 Regional Source Apportionment

20. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Sistema MINNI NO 2 Regional Source Apportionment Central Italy and Sardinia

21. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Sistema MINNI NO 2 Regional Source Apportionment Southern Italy

22. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 Transboundary Source Apportionment

23. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 Sectorial Source Apportionment a. a.Emission variation (-20%) b. b.Model run at national scale with 4 km spatial resolution, for 1 winter and 1 summer period c. c.Calculation of mean concentrations variation  with reference to base run This for: Each Sector separately (“sectorial” runs) … variation  i All Sectors jointly (“control” run) … variation  N The percentage contribution of each Sector i is estimated as  i /  N

24. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 Sectorial Source Apportionment Cluster of activities: Road transport (SNAP group 07) Residential (SNAP group 02) Sea traffic and inland navigation (SNAP sub-groups 8.3 + 8.4) Other transports ( SNAP sub-groups 8.x) Energy and industrial combustion, waste disposal ( SNAP groups 01, 03, 04, 09)

25. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 annual mean Northern Italy

26. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO x total emissions: sectorial share Northern Italy

27. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 – Sectorial source apportionment Road transport (07) contribution % Variation  i Northern Italy

28. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 contribution % Variation  i NO 2 – Sectorial source apportionment Residential (02) Northern Italy

29. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Sistema MINNI NO 2 – Source apportionment settoriale – Nord Italia Trasporti marittimi e navigazione interna (8.3 + 8.4) contribution % Variation  i

30. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Sistema MINNI NO 2 – Source apportionment settoriale – Nord Italia Other mobile emissions (8.x) contribution % Variation  i

31. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 Form 4A: Baseline level for original deadline for compliance Which NO 2 annual average concentrations are expected in 2010? And in 2015? 2005 2015 2010 2020 Form 4B: Baseline level for extended deadline for compliance 20x20 km 2 resolution

32. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 annual average concentrations with bottom-up emissions (GAINS_Italy)

33. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2015: NO2 annual average concentrations (4km x 4km)(20km x 20km)

34. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 NO 2 annual average concentrations with bottom-up emissions (GAINS_Italy) Percentage relative variation in 2015 NO2 annual mean concentration Compared to 2005

35. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2015 NO 2 exceedences of the annual average concentrations at monitoring stations (current measures)

36. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2015 NO 2 exceedences of the annual average concentrations at monitoring stations (current measures)

37. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2015 NO 2 exceedences of the annual average concentrations at monitoring stations (current measures)

38. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2015 NO 2 exceedences of the annual average concentrations at monitoring stations with additional measures

39. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2015 NO 2 exceedences of the annual average concentrations at monitoring stations with additional measures

40. EC4MACS workshop, Paris, 8-9 March 2012 2015 NO 2 exceedences of the annual average concentrations at monitoring stations with additional measures