Presentation on theme: "RAF Technical Overview"— Presentation transcript:
1 RAF Technical Overview What is “risk”?“a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford)Combination of:Likelihood of occurrenceXConsequences of occurrenceDefinitionWhat is risk, in the context of forest pest management?It is the product of: Likelihood of occurrence X Consequences of occurrenceIt’s a simple as that!
2 NFPS Risk Analysis Framework Common approachEnhances understanding – nature of risksIdentifies critical factorsUtilizes evidenceAddresses gaps and uncertaintiesPromotes collaboration on shared risksDescription from RA TAGKey elements, etc – why do it?With this approach, we should be able to make better (science-based) management & policy decisions. Also, can make judgements on which forest pests will be more detrimental. Eg. Is SBW worse than MPB? What kind of impacts can we expect and where?Results in transparent and accountable public policy and decisions in natural resource management
3 High-level diagramThere are 3 separate components to the RA framework: Risk Assessment, Risk Response, Risk Communication. And they are 3 different concepts and should be thought of that way.In Risk Assessment, you characterize the risks and the uncertainty associated with those risks.In Risk Response, you identify and evaluate options for dealing with the risks.In Risk Communication, you communicate information associated with the risks to the relevant people.Now, the NFPS RAF is a general framework that should apply equally well to native pests or aliens; as well as to different triggers.
4 Some concepts and terms… Likelihood of occurrencewhere?when?Consequences of occurrencewhat?Lets explore some important terms and concepts that are important in risk analysis and in this framework.Likelihood of occurrence:“where” is the forest pest going to be?“when” is it going to be there?Consequences of occurrence:“what” is it going to do when it gets there?
5 Some concepts and terms… Transparency“easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” (Collins)operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what actions are taken, and whyTransparency : “easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious”Our RA Framework/process should be transparent --- no black box.
6 Some concepts and terms… Ecosystem services“benefits people obtain from ecosystems ” (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)examples:carbon sequestrationwater and air purificationnutrient dispersal and cyclingindustrial productsrecreationenergyEcosystem servicesbenefits people obtain from ecosystemsIt is valuable to consider consequences of insect and diseases in our forests in terms of impacts on “ecosystem services”
7 Some concepts and terms… Trigger - forest pest threat of some kindTriggerspestWe talk about triggers in risk analysis.There are different “things” that can “trigger” a risk analysis for forest pestsTrigger – a forest pest threat of some kind. We classify as follows:Pest – the existence or potential existence of a particular pest may trigger a risk analysis. The focus of the RA is the specific pest.Commodity – in the case of commodities or products from the forest, a particular commodity may be the trigger and focus of the RA. In this case, we would focus on the commodity itself and consider all of the pests (perhaps as groups) that are a with that particular commodity.Pathways – are ways in which pests can be introduced into an area. For example, wood packaging material for internationally transported goods. In this case the RA would look at all potential threats associated with that pathway.Ecosystem – one might consider all of the pests issues that may be a threat to a particular ecosystem. In this case, the particular ecosystem is the focus of the RA such that one would look at factors in the ecosystem that might make the ecosystem at risk.pathway/commodityecosystem
8 Increasing numbers of pathways Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activitiesWorld Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriersGlobal trade dramatically increased during 20th CenturyLets talk about Pathways…In recent years there has been an increasing number of pathways...Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activitiesThe World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriersAnd global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century
9 Increasing numbers of pathways Here we see a graphical representation of exports of merchandise from This graph shows time on the x-axis , the value of exports in trillions of US dollars on the left y-axis, and the share of the world gross domestic product (GDP) on the right y-axis. Both values increase dramatically over the time span of 53 years. This graph shows that not only did the value of trade increase but reliance on trade did as well.Source: WTO data
10 Pathway Any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest; could be… an imported commoditya means of transportation or storagepackaging, or other articles associated with the commoditya natural means of spread (e.g., wind)A commodity is a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposesA pathway, therefore, may be any number of things. The first thing we think of when we think of pathways is a commodity, but in reality, a commodity is a sub-category of pathway. While a pathway is “any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest”, a commodity is “a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes”. In our previous slide, then, the logs were the commodity, but both the logs and the tractor could have been a pathway.In the picture here, we see a commodity – fresh Edelweiss blossoms -- that are clearly a pathway for spread as we can see a snail in the corner of the box which has crawled out of the bundle of foliage during transport and is trapped in the box. When a commodity is the initiation point for the PRA, the NPPO should consider any associated materials, such as packing or shipping requirements, that together will comprise the pathway.
11 ExamplesA request to import something that has not previously been imported from the proposed country of originA different end-use is proposed for a commodity that is already being importedA new treatment is proposed for a commodity that is already being importedAn interception is madeLive pests are found on a previously unidentified pathway or commodity
12 Pathway DescriptionThe more you know about the pathway, the more accurate the PRA will be and the more effective or appropriate any subsequent phytosanitary measures will beAsk questionsConsider all aspects of pathwayGet detailed descriptionsUnderstand it
13 SBW RA case study - Triggers Looming ESBW outbreak in eastern Quebeclosses experienced in the previous outbreak would have a significant negative impact on wood supply todayforestry landscape has changed since the last OBlimited protection options availableNeeded a real life case for development of the framework
16 -- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993 Setting Objectives-- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993Management goalsbroad objectivescarry a social mandatee.g. maintain healthy forest ecosystemsAssessment endpointstranslate mgmt goals into conceptual modelsatisfy social objectivese.g. maintain expected supply of timber; other valuesSetting objectives ‘for the risk analysis’ is influenced by the specific context of the issue.Endpoints – expressions of the values we want to protectThey can be endpoints that refer to the values (e.g. absolute or change-in), the threat (e.g. limited spread ), anything really.Measurement endpointsoperational definitionscan be measurede.g. black spruce growing stock; mature conifer habitat
17 Setting Objectives Endpoints biologically relevant important to societyunambigously definedoperationally feasiblepredictable and measurablesusceptible to hazardSuter 1993
18 Setting Objectives Scope (of the RA) Objectives Resources Time The scope of a particular risk analysis is defined by 3 things…Each of these 3 things is set by the “context” of the issue (endpoints)… mainly, who is paying for the RA?Any 2 of these things determines the other. So if you set 2 of them, the other is automatically determined.ResourcesTime
19 Setting Objectives Objectives can be… statements of desired outcomes of the RAquestions to be answered
20 Case studies’ experience… Setting ObjectivesCase studies’ experience…Setting objectives
21 ESBW case study - Objectives Setting ObjectivesESBW case study - ObjectivesConsultation with MRNQSynthesis of research knowledgeLikely impacts of various stand typesIntervention optionsEvaluate preventative measuresObjectives of MRNQ:- Literature review of recent and comprehensive publications on SBW (apply information/knowledge of past outbreaks to the current situation)- SBW impacts in various populationsUneven-aged stands and old residual forestsImpact on pre-established regeneration/in the seed bankIntervention options (preventative measures, collection, spraying, preventive spraying, doing nothing, etc)Evaluating efficiency of preventative measures (management of mature stands, upswing, pre-recuperation, etc)Prioritisation of populations to harvest/treatSBWDSS PROPS as a decision-making tool?Development scenario analyses as a tool?Others…Evaluate SBW DSS as a toolContribute to dev of NFPS RA Framework