1. RAF Technical Overview
What is “risk”?
“a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford)
Combination of:
Likelihood of occurrence X
Consequences of occurrence
Definition
What is risk, in the context of forest pest management?
It is the product of: Likelihood of occurrence X Consequences of occurrence
It’s a simple as that!

2. NFPS Risk Analysis Framework
Common approach
Enhances understanding – nature of risks
Identifies critical factors
Utilizes evidence
Addresses gaps and uncertainties
Promotes collaboration on shared risks
Description from RA TAG
Key elements, etc – why do it?
With this approach, we should be able to make better (science-based) management & policy decisions. Also, can make judgements on which forest pests will be more detrimental. Eg. Is SBW worse than MPB? What kind of impacts can we expect and where?
Results in transparent and accountable public policy and decisions in natural resource management

3. High-level diagram
There are 3 separate components to the RA framework: Risk Assessment, Risk Response, Risk Communication. And they are 3 different concepts and should be thought of that way.
In Risk Assessment, you characterize the risks and the uncertainty associated with those risks.
In Risk Response, you identify and evaluate options for dealing with the risks.
In Risk Communication, you communicate information associated with the risks to the relevant people.
Now, the NFPS RAF is a general framework that should apply equally well to native pests or aliens; as well as to different triggers.

4. Some concepts and terms…
Likelihood of occurrence
where?
when?
Consequences of occurrence
what?
Lets explore some important terms and concepts that are important in risk analysis and in this framework.
Likelihood of occurrence:
“where” is the forest pest going to be?
“when” is it going to be there?
Consequences of occurrence:
“what” is it going to do when it gets there?

5. Some concepts and terms…
Transparency
“easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” (Collins)
operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what actions are taken, and why
Transparency : “easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious”
Our RA Framework/process should be transparent --- no black box.

6. Some concepts and terms…
Ecosystem services
“benefits people obtain from ecosystems ” (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)
examples:
carbon sequestration
water and air purification
nutrient dispersal and cycling
industrial products
recreation
energy
Ecosystem services
benefits people obtain from ecosystems
It is valuable to consider consequences of insect and diseases in our forests in terms of impacts on “ecosystem services”

7. Some concepts and terms…
Trigger - forest pest threat of some kind
Triggers
pest
We talk about triggers in risk analysis.
There are different “things” that can “trigger” a risk analysis for forest pests
Trigger – a forest pest threat of some kind. We classify as follows:
Pest – the existence or potential existence of a particular pest may trigger a risk analysis. The focus of the RA is the specific pest.
Commodity – in the case of commodities or products from the forest, a particular commodity may be the trigger and focus of the RA. In this case, we would focus on the commodity itself and consider all of the pests (perhaps as groups) that are a with that particular commodity.
Pathways – are ways in which pests can be introduced into an area. For example, wood packaging material for internationally transported goods. In this case the RA would look at all potential threats associated with that pathway.
Ecosystem – one might consider all of the pests issues that may be a threat to a particular ecosystem. In this case, the particular ecosystem is the focus of the RA such that one would look at factors in the ecosystem that might make the ecosystem at risk.
pathway/commodity
ecosystem

8. Increasing numbers of pathways
Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities
World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers
Global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century
Lets talk about Pathways…
In recent years there has been an increasing number of pathways...
Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers
And global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century

9. Increasing numbers of pathways
Here we see a graphical representation of exports of merchandise from This graph shows time on the x-axis , the value of exports in trillions of US dollars on the left y-axis, and the share of the world gross domestic product (GDP) on the right y-axis. Both values increase dramatically over the time span of 53 years. This graph shows that not only did the value of trade increase but reliance on trade did as well.
Source: WTO data

10. Pathway Any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest; could be…
an imported commodity
a means of transportation or storage
packaging, or other articles associated with the commodity
a natural means of spread (e.g., wind)
A commodity is a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes
A pathway, therefore, may be any number of things. The first thing we think of when we think of pathways is a commodity, but in reality, a commodity is a sub-category of pathway. While a pathway is “any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest”, a commodity is “a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes”. In our previous slide, then, the logs were the commodity, but both the logs and the tractor could have been a pathway.
In the picture here, we see a commodity – fresh Edelweiss blossoms -- that are clearly a pathway for spread as we can see a snail in the corner of the box which has crawled out of the bundle of foliage during transport and is trapped in the box. When a commodity is the initiation point for the PRA, the NPPO should consider any associated materials, such as packing or shipping requirements, that together will comprise the pathway.

11. Examples
A request to import something that has not previously been imported from the proposed country of origin
A different end-use is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported
A new treatment is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported
An interception is made
Live pests are found on a previously unidentified pathway or commodity

12. Pathway Description
The more you know about the pathway, the more accurate the PRA will be and the more effective or appropriate any subsequent phytosanitary measures will be
Ask questions
Consider all aspects of pathway
Get detailed descriptions
Understand it

13. SBW RA case study - Triggers
Looming ESBW outbreak in eastern Quebec
losses experienced in the previous outbreak would have a significant negative impact on wood supply today
forestry landscape has changed since the last OB
limited protection options available
Needed a real life case for development of the framework

14. MPB RA case study - Triggers

15. SOD RA case study - Triggers

16. -- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993
Setting Objectives
-- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993
Management goals
broad objectives
carry a social mandate
e.g. maintain healthy forest ecosystems
Assessment endpoints
translate mgmt goals into conceptual model
satisfy social objectives
e.g. maintain expected supply of timber; other values
Setting objectives ‘for the risk analysis’ is influenced by the specific context of the issue.
Endpoints – expressions of the values we want to protect
They can be endpoints that refer to the values (e.g. absolute or change-in), the threat (e.g. limited spread ), anything really.
Measurement endpoints
operational definitions
can be measured
e.g. black spruce growing stock; mature conifer habitat

17. Setting Objectives Endpoints biologically relevant
important to society
unambigously defined
operationally feasible
predictable and measurable
susceptible to hazard
Suter 1993

18. Setting Objectives Scope (of the RA) Objectives Resources Time
The scope of a particular risk analysis is defined by 3 things…
Each of these 3 things is set by the “context” of the issue (endpoints)… mainly, who is paying for the RA?
Any 2 of these things determines the other. So if you set 2 of them, the other is automatically determined.
Resources
Time

19. Setting Objectives Objectives can be…
statements of desired outcomes of the RA
questions to be answered

20. Case studies’ experience…
Setting Objectives
Case studies’ experience…
Setting objectives

21. ESBW case study - Objectives
Setting Objectives
ESBW case study - Objectives
Consultation with MRNQ
Synthesis of research knowledge
Likely impacts of various stand types
Intervention options
Evaluate preventative measures
Objectives of MRNQ:
- Literature review of recent and comprehensive publications on SBW (apply information/knowledge of past outbreaks to the current situation)
- SBW impacts in various populations
Uneven-aged stands and old residual forests
Impact on pre-established regeneration/in the seed bank
Intervention options (preventative measures, collection, spraying, preventive spraying, doing nothing, etc)
Evaluating efficiency of preventative measures (management of mature stands, upswing, pre-recuperation, etc)
Prioritisation of populations to harvest/treat
SBWDSS PROPS as a decision-making tool?
Development scenario analyses as a tool?
Others…
Evaluate SBW DSS as a tool
Contribute to dev of NFPS RA Framework