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What is “risk”?  “a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford)  Combination of:  Likelihood of occurrence X  Consequences of occurrence RAF Technical.

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Presentation on theme: "What is “risk”?  “a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford)  Combination of:  Likelihood of occurrence X  Consequences of occurrence RAF Technical."— Presentation transcript:

1 What is “risk”?  “a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford)  Combination of:  Likelihood of occurrence X  Consequences of occurrence RAF Technical Overview

2  Common approach  Enhances understanding – nature of risks  Identifies critical factors  Utilizes evidence  Addresses gaps and uncertainties  Promotes collaboration on shared risks  Results in transparent and accountable public policy and decisions in natural resource management NFPS Risk Analysis Framework

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4  Likelihood of occurrence  where?  when? Some concepts and terms…  Consequences of occurrence  what?

5  Transparency Some concepts and terms…  “easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” (Collins)  operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what actions are taken, and why

6  Ecosystem services Some concepts and terms…  “benefits people obtain from ecosystems ” (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)  examples:  carbon sequestration  water and air purification  nutrient dispersal and cycling  industrial products  recreation  energy

7  Triggers Some concepts and terms…  pest  pathway/commodity  ecosystem  Trigger - forest pest threat of some kind

8 Increasing numbers of pathways  Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities  World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers  Global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century

9 Increasing numbers of pathways Source: WTO data

10 Pathway  Any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest; could be…  an imported commodity  a means of transportation or storage  packaging, or other articles associated with the commodity  a natural means of spread (e.g., wind)  A commodity is a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes

11 Examples  A request to import something that has not previously been imported from the proposed country of origin  A different end-use is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported  A new treatment is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported  An interception is made  Live pests are found on a previously unidentified pathway or commodity

12 Pathway Description  The more you know about the pathway, the more accurate the PRA will be and the more effective or appropriate any subsequent phytosanitary measures will be  Ask questions  Consider all aspects of pathway  Get detailed descriptions  Understand it

13  Looming ESBW outbreak in eastern Quebec SBW RA case study - Triggers  losses experienced in the previous outbreak would have a significant negative impact on wood supply today  forestry landscape has changed since the last OB  limited protection options available  Needed a real life case for development of the framework

14 MPB RA case study - Triggers

15 SOD RA case study - Triggers

16  Management goals  broad objectives  carry a social mandate  e.g. maintain healthy forest ecosystems -- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993  Assessment endpoints  translate mgmt goals into conceptual model  satisfy social objectives  e.g. maintain expected supply of timber; other values Setting Objectives  Measurement endpoints  operational definitions  can be measured  e.g. black spruce growing stock; mature conifer habitat

17  biologically relevant Endpoints  important to society  unambigously defined  operationally feasible  predictable and measurable  susceptible to hazard Suter 1993 Setting Objectives

18 Scope (of the RA) Setting Objectives Objectives ResourcesTime

19  statements of desired outcomes of the RA Objectives can be…  questions to be answered Setting Objectives

20 Case studies’ experience…  Setting objectives Setting Objectives

21 ESBW case study - Objectives  Consultation with MRNQ  Synthesis of research knowledge  Likely impacts of various stand types  Intervention options  Evaluate preventative measures  Evaluate SBW DSS as a tool  Contribute to dev of NFPS RA Framework Setting Objectives  Others…


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