Presentation on theme: "Www.swslim.org.uk Lessons from Economic Crisis Devon in Recession Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM 29 th November 2010."— Presentation transcript:
www.swslim.org.uk Lessons from Economic Crisis Devon in Recession Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM 29 th November 2010
www.swslim.org.uk Dec 2007Stock market sees biggest fall since 2001 Qtr 1 2008Mortgage products (e.g. 110% offers) disappear UK Interest rate cut by 0.25% to 5.0% Economy still growing (though we didn’t know that at time) Qtr 2 2008RBS tries to raise £12bn & fails as share price falls. House prices fall, Persimmon Builders cut staff. Qtr 3 2008HBOS collapses, Lehman goes Bankrupt, Federal Reserve finds 85bn to rescue AIG, house prices collapse, liquidity vanishes etc. Confidence vanishes. Things that aren’t essential stop. Credit dependent companies fold. ‘Recession’ or ‘Crash’ Timing matters
www.swslim.org.uk Comparisons between recessions Source: NIESR Worse than the ‘Great Depression’
www.swslim.org.uk GDP in the economic crisis Source: OECD International Comparisons
www.swslim.org.uk Public Spending Source: OECD Annual Government borrowing, % GDP 2008200920102011 Italy220.127.116.11.1 UK5.312.613.312.5 Spain18.104.22.168.7 Total National Debt, % GDP
www.swslim.org.uk Business Confidence Source: ICAEW Purchasing Managers Index Q? How would you describe your confidence in the economic prospects facing your organisation over the next 12 months, compared to the previous months? -100 = 100% feel ‘much less’ confident. -50% could be achieved if 100% felt ‘slightly less confident’ etc.
www.swslim.org.uk Redundancies Source: LFS Devon – Quarterly notified to JC+ UK – LFS Redundancies per 1,000 people