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Www.swslim.org.uk Recession Briefing NIACE Seminar January 2010 Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.swslim.org.uk Recession Briefing NIACE Seminar January 2010 Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM."— Presentation transcript:

1 Recession Briefing NIACE Seminar January 2010 Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM

2 UK GDP Source: ONS

3 Unemployment, SW Source: ONS / BBC

4 Unemployment Lagging Indicator Source: LFS, ONS Estimates 19 Quarters of positive growth before unemployment returns to pre- recession levels We have now had 6 successive quarter s of negative growth

5 Unemployment Lagging Indicator Source: LFS, ONS

6 LFS & Claimant Count Unemployment, SW Source: LFS % Working age population in Employment

7 Employment Volume & Rate Source: LFS % Working age population

8 Migration Source: LFS National Insurance Number Registrations

9 Involuntary part-time working Source: LFS Number of people in the South West working part-time because they can't find a full-time job

10 Employment Volume & Rate Source: LFS All people aged 16+

11 Employment Rates Source: LFS Annual Change in % Employment Rates by Age Group, South West, to March 2009

12 ILO Unemployment Source: LFS

13 Employment Rate, SW Source: LFS % Working age population in Employment, Sept – Nov 2009

14 Claimant Count Rates by region Source: JC+ / NOMIS

15 Redundancies Source: JC+ administrative data

16 Redundancies Source: JC+ administrative data

17 Vacancies Source: JC+ / NOMIS Notified to Jobcentre plus, monthly, SW

18 Claimants per vacancy - SW Source: JC+ / NOMIS

19 Claim duration Source: JC+ / NOMIS

20 Claim duration Source: JC+ / NOMIS Proportion of claimants leaving JSA each month, by duration of unemployment, April 2008 to Present

21 Employment Rates Source: LFS South West by gender, indexed, Aug 08 = 100

22 Gender – Claimant Count Source: JC+ / NOMIS South West Claimant Count by gender

23 Impact on Sectors Source: JC+ administrative data

24 Source: JC+ / NOMIS Age – Claimant Count South West, Indexed, April 2008 = 100

25 Claimant Count by Age Source: NOMIS / JC+ + 3% of age band

26 LFS Unemployment Source: NOMIS / JC+ 16 to 24 year olds, UK & English Regions

27 Impact on occupations Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009 % Claimants% Employment Managers and Senior Officials 6%16% Professional Occupations 5%12% Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 7%15% Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 11% Skilled Trades Occupations 13%12% Personal Service Occupations 5%9% Sales and Customer Service occupations 15%8% Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 11%6% Elementary Occupations 27%11%

28 Projected change in employment by occupation, Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009


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