1. 1 orkpackage 3 Definition of 3 scenarios W orkpackage 3 Definition of 3 scenarios STEPS final meeting Gé Huismans, Albert Jansen, SenterNovem June, 15th 2005, Gothenborg STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research

2. 2 Aim and tasks Aim: develop scenarios to be modelled and calculated in Workpackage 4 and assessed in Workpackage 5. Tasks: 1: Synthesis of trends into dimensions 2: Definition of the scenarios 3: Definition of regional impact 4: Building and formulating the scenarios 5: Essay form

3. 3 Task 1 Synthesis of trends into dimensions Trends to variables From variables to dimensions Clustering in a matrix Definition of the scenarios

4. 4 Task 1.1 > trends to variables Subsystems Social-economic and cultural system Spatial System Private transport system Freight transport system Transport Energy System Energy supply and demand

5. 5

6. 6 Task 1.2 > variables to dimensions

7. 7

8. 8 Systemvariables (indicators) + WP2 Long list Clustering into two groups (availability) (regulation of demand ) Task 1.3 > clustering into a matrix Exogenous variables 1. Globalisation 2. European integration 3. Economic growth, (GDP) 4. Demographics, 5. Technological progress 6. Availabilty of Energy Resources 7. Spatial development 8. Transport costs Policies 9. Liberation of the energy market 10. Environmental policy 11. Spatial planning 12. Technological Innovation policy 13. Transport policy 14. Fiscal Policy 15. Energy Policy

9. 9 Task 1.4 > definition of the scenarios Clustering into two groups Exogeneous (availability) Policies (regulation of demand) 1. Energy Demand Regulation –BAU –Technological/ investment –Regulation/taxation 2. Energy supply –Trend forecast (IEA + EU) +2%/a –Worst Case +7%/a

10. 10 Task 1.4 > definition of the scenarios Policies (energy demand) BAU reference policies 2005 Investments: Technology + Infrastructure Demand Control: Taxation Regulations Energy supply Generally accepted energy supply forecast A0A1A2 Worst case energy supply forecasts: Scarcity B0B1B2

11. 11 C2 B2 A2 Demand Regulation (scenarios 2) B3 B1B0B-1 Energy Scarcity C3C1C0C-1 Extreme fuel price growth A3 A1A0A-1 Unrestricted energy supply Integrated Policies (scenarios 3) Technology Investment (scenarios 1) Business as Usual (BAU) No Policies Additional scenarios (integration) Additional scenarios Main scenarios (integration) Main scenarios WP4: 15 scenarios/ WP3: 6 scenarios

12. 12 Task 2 > definition of the scenarios BAU: actual practiced policies, including expert guesses on feasable policy development towards 2030 BAU+INVEST: direct investments in infrastructure, technology and innovation systems (energy efficiency, skills/knowledge, production capacity alternative fuels and rolling stock) BAU+DEMAND REGULATION: taxation of car use, taxation of fuel, regulation of urban development towards transit orientation and node development

13. 13 Task 2 > definition of the scenarios: E-supply Trend consumption + 60 % in volume (A) Worst case + 7 %/a rise in end-user price (B)

14. 14 Task 3 > definition of regional impact Two ways: Planning families Density and networks

15. 15 planning families - Germanic - Napoleonic - Scandinavian - East European - British

16. 16 Urban density

17. 17 networks road

18. 18 Networks rail

19. 19 proximity

20. 20 Task 3 > definition of regional impact Four European Regions: 1. Northern: Denmark, Finland, Sweden, (Norway) 2. Eastern: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary 3. Southern: Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Malta, Cyprus 4. Western: Germany, Austria, United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Luxembourg

21. 21 Task 4 > building and formulation the scenarios Desciption of each scenario General introduction: the basics of that specific scenario A more detailed qualitative description of the scenario, on variable level (based on the 21 variables selected): On a EU-level: impact on the transport and energy system. This qualitative description is the basis for the quantification of the variable On a regional scale Scenario is finalised by summarising the scores of all relevant variables within the scenario: this quanitified description is the basis for WP4

22. 22 Task 4 > building and formulation the scenarios measures and indicators used

23. 23 Task 4 > building and formulation the scenarios measures and indicators used

24. 24 Task 4 > building and formulation the scenarios measures and indicators used

25. 25 Task 4 > building and formulation the scenarios measures and indicators used

26. 26 Task 4 > building and formulation the scenarios measures and indicators used

27. 27 Task 1.4 > definition of the scenarios Fuel Supply and Distribution system Technology system Transport Energy system Measures Calculated Measures Input parameters Transport system Socio-economic cultural system Measures input parameters Spatial system B2B1B0A2A1A0 SCENARIOS x x

28. 28 Social-economic system > BAU BAU: General: –GDP, average incomes and demographics (1-P hh): drivers transport demand –Car-use culturally and socially dependent: national, regional, local differences Car-sharing –No special actions for car-sharing: car ownership increases (new EU Member States and rural regions) Taxation on fuels: –Excise rates grow, affecting New Member States. –Change in taxation from purchase to use: in general tax burden more or less the same, softens the higher fuel prices –Kerosine will be taxed

29. 29 Social-economic system > BAU + DR Demand Regulation: Car-sharing –Legislative profits when car-sharing: Europe-wide, upto local levels –Higher taxes when purchasing and using the car + restricted entrance for non-sharing cars –Regional differences:... Taxation on fuels: –Excise rates grow rapidly and heavily, especially for the more pollutionate fuels –Increased fuel prices are not compensated; –Kerosine will be heavily taxed to create a level-playing-field between modes –Regional differences: …

30. 30 Social-economic System

31. 31 Spatial System > BAU BAU: General –Urban sprawl continued (residential, office, retail) –No Daily Urban System + Minimum mixed-use –Some central and nodal developments and browfield; rest greenfield –Regional differences:... Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land use) –small/ no increment in central urban area: res/office/retail –moderate increment inner urban: res/office/retail –huge increment outer urban: res/office/retail »biggest effects in new member states –Regional differences:...

32. 32 Spatial System > BAU + DR Demand Regulation Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land use) –Legislation to mix activities (all spatial levels), disables greenfield/hypermarket developments: tax on land take, land banks, … –End to domination of urban sprawl (2015 onwards) –Daily Urban System: more close, more dense, more local, more regional, more mixed, more slow modes based –Inner cities and (inner urban) nodal developments extremely popular, just as new cities around rail near existing cities –Brownfields (incl. former office locations): highly mixed, medium/high density –Regional differences:...

33. 33 Spatial System

34. 34 Passenger Transport System > BAU BAU General –no decoupling GDP / pass. Kms –Growing incomes spent on transport –Car major role in local and regional transport –Aviation dominates intra-European travel –Regional differences: … Investment in local public transport infrastructure –Decrease (national, regional, local) –End-user cost increase –Regional differences:...

35. 35 Passenger Transport System > BAU (2) BAU Investment in European Rail Networks –Slight increase: Ten-T and TINA networks planned; construction unclear and dependent on extra investments –Regional differences:... Investment in regional rail –Decrease (national, regional, local) –End-user cost increase –Slight shift towards rail due to congestion –Private companies entering the PT-business –Regional differences:...

36. 36 Passenger Transport System > BAU (3) BAU Speed reduction –Some cities and regions introduced speed reduction measures –10% of the EU-network speed reduction measurements Regional differences:... Road Pricing –Some cities and regions introduced road pricing –Regional differences:...

37. 37 Passenger Transport System > BAU (4) BAU Lower transport for PT users –Some measures for lower cost: free fares in parts of the urban area –Increase of transport cost –Regional differences:... Extending telework –Few initiatives taken EU-wide –No significant change in commuting trips –Regional differences:...

38. 38 Passenger Transport System > BAU + T Investment in local public transport investment –increase investment 100%: free lanes, extended lines, new (light weight material), ICT, service providers Investment in European Rail Networks –Most of the planned lines built: bottlenecks eliminated, new lines built or extended Investment in regional rail –increase investment 100%: free lanes, extended lines, new (light weight material), ICT, service providers

39. 39 Passenger Transport System > BAU + DR (1) Speed reduction –Legislation: 40% of the network speed reduction, especially urban areas Road Pricing –legislation: from 2009 on all cities > 80.000 inhabitants introduced road pricing –entrance permissions for specific cars only

40. 40 Passenger Transport System > BAU + DR (2) Lower transport cost for PT users –Legislative measures: exclusive (free) P+R facilities and the use of certain streets in urban areas exclusively for PT –Subsidies re-introduced (paid by congestion charging), e.g lower VAT when buying tickets Extending telework –Half of EU-Member States started promoting telework from 2009 onwards ALL: Regional differences:...

41. 41 Passenger Transport System

42. 42 Passenger Transport System (2)

43. 43 Freight Transport System > BAU (1) BAU General –Increased GDP > More freight: no decoupling –More trucking (100%) –Better logistics: higher load factor Speed reduction –Some cities and regions speed reduction measures –On 10% of the EU-network speed reduction measurements, especially for freight –Regional differences:... Road Pricing –Some cities and regions introduced road pricing –Regional differences:...

44. 44 Freight Transport System > BAU (2) City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban freight distribution –Few cities and regions introduced freight distribution policies, e.g restricted delivery times, weight etc Improving freight rail infra and services –Few investments –Increased road tax: more demand rail, not met by extra investments> higher prices –Speed slightly higher Improving freight ship infra and services –Few investments in inland waterways (small share) and short sea shipping (great share) –Speed slightly higher

45. 45 Freight Transport System > BAU + T (1) City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban freight distribution –huge investments in e.g. tracking+tracing, city logistics centres, delivery/city boxes, other modes (bikes, small electric cars) for the last mile, coöperation between different logistic firms, budgets for marketing and implementation of these concepts to overcome market barriers Improving freight rail infra and services –100% extra investments: new and extra rail, electrification of networks, new rolling stock (lightweight, aerodynamic) –higher demand met with extra slots –higher speed

46. 46 Freight Transport System > BAU + T (2) Improving freight ship infra and services –100% extra investment: extra short sea and inland: »improved ships »More and improved infrastructure related to (inland) harbours, waterways: new and longer docks, deeper harbours, cranes, container facilities, techniques and infrastructure for easier passing locks, improved possibilities for intermodal freight –Faster shipment

47. 47 Freight Transport System > BAU + DR (1) Speed reduction –Legislation: 40% of the network speed reduction, especially in urban areas, supported by infra measures (drive slow go fast) Road Pricing –Legislation: from 2009 on all cities over 80.000 inhabitants have introduced road pricing –3/4 of the EU-Member States charges toll for freight –Entrance permissions for specific cars only, related to weight, emission factors, etc

48. 48 Freight Transport System

49. 49 Freight Transport System (2)

50. 50 Transport Energy System > BAU (1) BAU Improving energy efficiency for car –Investments decrease –Ongoing improvements in energy efficiency, e.g. direct injection, lightweight materials, and better aerodynamics - legislation on emissions (air quality) > slight annual decrease fuel consumption Investments in alternative vehicle technologies –Investments decrease –Decreased emissions (Euro; every 9 years 50% reduction) –Slow decrease conventionals (75%), slightly growing share for alternatives:

51. 51 Transport Energy System > BAU (2) BAU Investments in alternative vehicle technologies »Hybrids: 15% share (2004 already small share, growing share due to marketing and lower prices) »CNG: 10% share, implementation quite easy: already infra for gas distribution. Beneficial: air quality legislation »Electric: max. 1% share; niche market (fleets local authorities, etc) »Hydrogen: some 2% share, grow after 2020

52. 52 Transport Energy System > BAU (3) BAU Improving energy efficiency for train –no mayor investments, only fleet renewal Improving energy efficiency for ship –no mayor investments, only fleet renewal

53. 53 Transport Energy System > BAU + T (1) BAU Improving energy efficiency for car –Investments increased: government and (due to that) private companies > share 15% of sales –Sped up improvements > direct injection, lightweight materials, modestly powered cars, better aerodynamics + legislation on emissions (air quality) > moderate annual decrease fuel consumption Investments in alternative vehicle technologies –Investments +100% (also private companies): lightweight, low noise, energy efficient cars, engines on biofuels, batteries fit for electric cars, fuel cell technology etc, ready to fit in modern logistic concepts….

54. 54 Transport Energy System > BAU + T (2) BAU Investments in alternative vehicle technologies –Sped up decrease of emissions (Euro; every 5yrs -50%) –Faster decrease conventionals (55% share) –Faster growing share for alternatives: »hybrids: 20% share > 2005 small share; growing share due to marketing, lower prices, lightweight batteries, improved traction, improving recharging, accompanying legislations on emissions »CNG: 15% share > implementation quite easy and sped up: already infra for gas distribution. Beneficial: air quality legislation

55. 55 Transport Energy System > BAU + T (3) BAU Investments in alternative vehicle technologies »Electric: 5% share > improved batteries, expanded niche market towards mainstream (fleets local authorities, cars for local and regional use) »Hydrogen: 5% share, faster growth after 2020

56. 56 Transport Energy System > BAU + T (4) BAU Improving energy efficiency for train –100% extra investments, (lighter) materials for trains, engines, traction, use of low-energy consuming devices for passengers (light, heating), etc. Research on even better streamline, lay-out etc of the trains itself and on the most energy efficient mode (diesel vs electricity) and re- use of the braking energy > faster Improving energy efficiency for ship –100 % extra investments, research on other (lighter) materials for ships, motors, traction, etc. Research on even better streamline, lay-out etc of the ship itself,...

57. 57 Transport Energy System (1)

58. 58 Transport Energy System (2)

59. 59 WP3: Scenarios Thank you for the attention and discussion