Download presentation

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Published byJohn Dunlap Modified over 3 years ago

1
Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 37831 NETS Program Review December 12, 2005 Washington DC

2
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Calibration, Forecasting & Scenario Analysis County/Port Based Mode/Route/Market Choice Model(s)* Calibration Forecast / Scenario Based Commodity Flows, Costs and Benefits Forecasting, Scenario Analysis * = Simultaneous or nested mode and destination choice linked to capacity constrained route assignment Base Case Computed Flows, Costs (and Benefits) County/Port Based Commodity Production /Consumption Forecasts NETS Tier 1 Regional Economic Activity Forecasts/ Scenarios Changes in Demands Fuel, labor, I&M costs by vehicle /vessel types (C,M,V) (Data) Changes to Network Conditions (Capacities) and Mode/Route Costs Network Changes Mode Specific Rate Estimation Models Transit times, distances dollar/ton shipment rates Changes in Supply

3
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Estimate Commodity Production (O) & Consumption (D) by Region Connect Os and Ds to Estimate O-to-D Commodity Flows Assign O-to-D Flows to Modes & Routes Re-Estimate O-to-D Costs per Ton Estimate O-to-D Costs per Ton Re-Estimate O-to-D Flows Iterate to Convergence The Basic Flow and Cost Estimation Process

4
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY + m 1/ β m ( X i j m ln X i j m ) + m 1/ λ m ( X i j km ln X i j km ) Prototype Regional Routing Model Formulation: subject to: V ak = i j r δ i,j akr X i j kr for all links, a, and modes k, in the network r X i j rk = X i j k for i=1,2,...I, and j=1,2,...J k X i j k = X i j for i=1,2,...I, and j=1,2,...J V ak 0 X i j kr 0 V = a link volume X = an O-D flow volume S = link transportation time or generalized cost

5
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Freight Destination Choice (Flows Modeling): X i j m = O i m D j m F[ β m, i j m ] A i m B j m A i m = 1/{ j B j m D j m F [ β m, i j m ]} for all i B j m = 1/{ i A i m O i m F [ β m, i j m ]} for all j i j ( X i j m d i j m } / i,j X i j m = * m where and

6
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Freight Mode Choice: X ij km = X ij m *[exp(-θ m c km )/ kεK(m) exp(-θ m c km )] c ij km = α0 + α1 r ij km + α2 S ij km + α3 v ij km where (for example): and, c ij m = -(1/ λ m ) ln { k exp (-λ m c i j km )} (links mode and destination choice)

7
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Components of Freight Costs that Need Modeling: Number of different legs to a journey Shipper/receiver perceived costs per leg: freight rate transit time service reliability Congestion effects i.e. congestion transit time and reliability direct plus indirect (i.e. rate) effects on costs

8
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 0500100015002000 S=Travel Time (Minutes) Traffic Volume (Vehicles/hour) S = S0 * (1+ 0.15 (V/C)**4) Highway Congestion Function S a = S ao * [ 1 + θ1* V a + θ2 *( V a / Cap a ) γ ] Generic link congestion function for use in Toy Model: Network Link Transit Time (Congestion) Functions

9
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Components of Freight Movement Costs Freight Rates In-Transit Times Service Quality (Reliability) Variable Operating Costs (Annualized) Line-haul costs Loading/unloading costs Equipment utilization costs Commodity carrying costs Administrative costs Shipment distance Cargo type (commodity, weight, volume) Labor rate Fuel price Carrier/operator type Equipment type Company type (private/for-hire; size) Contract type (duration) Facility type, Location, Operating licenses, fees and taxes Capital Operating Costs Generalized Transportation Costs (Shipper Perspective) Level 1: (Statistical) Level 2: (Engineering)

10
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 10 11 12 23 13 14 1616 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 30 26 27 28 29 31 3232 3 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 3 6 42 Port A Port B Port C Lock a Lock b Lock c Truck Rail Inland Water Deep Water Traffic Centroids (10 in all) 41 34 40 35 39 36 37 38 40 Network Nodes (44) Key: Links (110 in all): 44 43

11
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 1 2 3 45 6 78 9

12
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Model Run # 1 Origin Mode Split = 36.7% water 63.3 % rail

13
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Model Run # 2 Origin Mode Split = 74.9% water 25.1% rail

14
O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY

Similar presentations

Presentation is loading. Please wait....

OK

Energy Generation in Mitochondria and Chlorplasts

Energy Generation in Mitochondria and Chlorplasts

© 2017 SlidePlayer.com Inc.

All rights reserved.

Ads by Google

Ppt on natural resources for class 11 Ppt on telecommunication switching systems and networks Ppt on web browser in java Free download ppt on diversity in living organisms Ppt on series and parallel circuits Ppt on care of public property information Ppt on transportation class 10 Ppt on bmc remedy software Ppt on porter's five forces template Ppt on leadership qualities