Presentation on theme: "War Room 08/09 S+P Downgrade Decision. The War Room Monthly macro discussion Using tools in context Feature for subscribers only Feedback - what should."— Presentation transcript:
War Room 08/09 S+P Downgrade Decision
The War Room Monthly macro discussion Using tools in context Feature for subscribers only Feedback - what should it to be?
Agenda Current Status Scenarios in play Discovering safe harbors Whats next?
Where are we right now? Gold at all time highs at $1743/oz Market bounces after 12 day sell-off Fed pledges to keep rates low through mid 2013 – 3 dissenting voters Dollar at record low vs Swiss Francs, post FOMC Treasury Yields hitting record lows, after S+P decision, post FOMC
Scenarios in Play Debt Ceiling Downgrade Cascading downgrades from S+P Double Dip Recession QE 3 – not yet in play
Discovering safe harbors Currencies – Yen + Swiss Francs Precious Metals Low + Negative Beta to S+P Try the Macro Trend Screener
7/20/11 Not all gold plays are following gold up… … some are following the market down.
Whats next? Cascading Downgrades Scenario still on table Double Dip Recession Scenario Volatility Increasing
On the chopping blockShould be immune US Banks European Countries European Banks 11k municipal bonds Pre-funded with escrowed Treasuries Backed by federal leases For areas with high DoD concentration For areas that depend on fed spending For agricultural entities Mortgage REITS Fannie + Freddie Israeli sovereign debt Insurance Companies (italics: already downgraded) States or local governments bonds: Fiscally insulated from federal interventions With a predictable institutional framework Financially flexible Emerging market debt Debt downgrade: who is next?
Volatility of Autumn 2008 crisis Will be mirrored in Autumn If you sell, sell into strength. 27July – 08Aug October 2008